ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2010-11: PROSPEK DAN TANTANGANNYA Faisal Basri 28 April 2010

1. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2010-11: PROSPEK DAN TANTANGANNYAFaisal Basri28 April 2010

2. Bagian IKerangka Analisis Lingkungan Bisnis

3. Kerangka analisis lingkungan bisnis Bankruptcy Internal: finance, personnel, organization, technology, risk management, etc. Failure *Politics *Socio-cultural *Technology *Nature *Law & regulation *Ideology *Economy *Agreements *Openness Zero growth/ stagnant CAUSES? Success External Environment: Expansion Behavior CORPORATE PLAN AND STRATEGY

4. Environment selalu berubah • Yang permanen adalah perubahan itu sendiri • Masa lalu tak bisa lagi diandalkan untuk menarik perspektif masa depan • Yang kuat tak takut perubahan, karena perubahan adalah opportunity ENVIRONMENT Change ABA-ABA TRIAD Danger Challenge Threat Opportunity

5. Sampai seberapa jauh perubahan membuat kita harus berubah? Speed Turbulent Perbankan, Alat kedokteran Fashion goods Electronics Computer Characteristics Tempe Aircraft Simple Degree of complexity: - method - materials - process - organization - production - mkt’ing system

6. ? The future is more unpredictable Level 4 Level 3 Level 2 Level 1 A B True ambiguity C A range of futures Alternatefutures A clear enough future Source: Hugh Courtney, 20/20 Foresight: Crafting Strategy in an Uncertain World, Boston, Mass.: Harvard Business School Press, 2001.

7. Pesan tentang perubahan • “If you’re reacting to change, you’re too late. You must anticipate change. You must understand change as an opportunity and make it happen.”--Jurgen Hambrecht, Chairman, BASF • “If what you have done yesterday still looks big to you, you have not done much today.”--Mikhail Gorbachev • Look at the world “as it is,” not as you might “wish to be.”--Jack Welch

8. Value-building firms(Paul A. Laudicina, World Out of Balance, 2005) • Aggressively pursue long-term revenue growth even as they balance the need for short-term profitability. Value builders take charge of their own destinies. • They understand that, although the external landscape is important, it has a marginal long-term impact on how robustly they grow. • Value-building companies believe that only 13% of their total performance is determined by external factors beyond their control. By contrast, companies that are not value builders attribute 44% of their performance to external factors. • A value builder puts on muscle even as it trims the fat.

9. Five drivers • Globalization • Demographics • The new consumer • Natural resources and environment • Regulation and activism

10. Winners never cheat • “One man with courage makes a majority.”--Andrew Jackson • “A crisis allows us the opportunity to dip deep into the reservoirs of our very being, to rise to levels of confidence, strength, and resolve that otherwise we didn’t think we possessed.”--Jon M. Huntsman • “There should not be tension between making profits and adhering to traditional principles of decency and fairness.”--Jon M. Huntsman

11. Bagian IIPerkembangan Ekonomi Dunia Terkini

12. Leading economic indocators kian membaik

13. Oil prices have roughly doubled since Feb. Crude Oil Lt Sweet Pit (Nymex) May2010 US$85.09 = 2:40p.m. EDT Source: http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/mdc_commodities.html • Adjusted by producer-price index = US$118 • Adjusted by annual income within G-7 countries = US$134 • Adjusted by disposable income of US = US$145 • Spending on oil as a share of global output = US$150 • Source: Economist, April 17, 2008.

14. Oil prices and stock market =11,204.28 Source: http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/mdc_commodities.html

15. Japan economy beats forecast Japan Rebounds With 4.8% GDP Growth Japan's economy rebounded sharply in the third quarter as government stimulus measures and exports to rapidly growing Asian neighbors fueled growth that outpaced economists' expectations. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125832949967349557.html

16. Euro Zone: finally… positive growth Source: http://www.economist.com/businessfinance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=14931559

17. Emerging Asia: an astonishing rebound • The four emerging Asian economies which have reported GDP figures for the second quarter (China, Indonesia, South Korea and Singapore) grew by an average annualised rate of more than 10%. • Source: From The Economist print edition, Aug 13th 2009. • Hong Kong joins Asia’s rapidclimb out of recession. Hong Kong’s economy grew by a seasonally adjusted 3.3 percent in the second quarter from the first quarter, more than analysts had expected, adding to evidence that the recovery was solidifying in much of Asia, according to data published Friday. • China, Singapore and South Korea have reported rebounds during the April-to-June period. • Source:http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/15/business/global/15asiaecon.html?ref=global-business.

18. U.S. economy grew at vigorous pace Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/30/business/economy/30econ.html?emc=na

19. Summary

20. Bagian IIIPerekonomian Indonesia

21. Summary • Perekonomian Indonesia ternyata bisa bertahan dari deraan krisis global dengan pertumbuhan masih di atas 4 persen. • Kekuatan utama adalah pasar domestik yang cukup besar. • Pertumbuhan belum berkualitas, sektor tradable masih merana. • Perlu pembenahan kebijakan moneter dan kebijakan fiskal (ruang moneter dan fiskal masih terbuka). • Ruang gerak ekspansi kredit juga masih terbuka. • Peluang terbuka lebar bagi FDI untuk imbangi modal jangka pendek.

22. The transmission of stress Sources:IMF, April 2009.

23. Sumber daya tahan • Perekonomian Indonesia dan sektor keuangannya tak terkait erat dengan sektor finansial AS. • Sektor perbankan sudah cukup terkonsolidasi. Indikator kesehatan perbankan (ROA, ROE, NIM, CAR) di atas rata-rata negara tetangga, bahkan beberapa terbaik. • Current account masih surplus. • Peranan ekspor di dalam PDB relatif kecil. • Porsi ekspor Indonesia ke AS, Eropa, dan Jepang sudah menunjukkan penurunan; bergeser ke EM dan Asean. • Ruang gerak untuk stimulus fiskal cukup leluasa. • Harga minyak sempat turun ke level di bawah $50 per barrel. • Ketahanan pangan terjaga (a.l: komponen makanan dalam CPI mengalami deflasi berturut-turut dalam 4 bulan terakhir). • Bonus: situasi politik yang memburuk di Thailand dan kurang kondusif di Malaysia; dan daya saing meningkat tajam.

24. East Asia entered the current crisis better prepared than it did the 1997 crisis (in percent of GDP unless indicated otherwise) Source: The World Bank, East Asia Pacific Update, East Asia: Navigating the Perfect Storm, December 2008.

25. Countries more dependent on exports will likely be more vulnerable to the slowdown Source:Asian Development Bank, The AsiIa Economic Monitor (AEM), July 2009, p. 5.

26. Ruang gerak stimulus fiskal WSJ, March 21, 2009 Stimulus Dilemma for China Spending on Public Works Risks Making Production Glut Worse http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123759537916001075.html Pertumbuhan ekonomi Singapura tahun 2009 terjun bebas. Pemerintah “pasrah.” Stimulus jangka pendek sangat terbatas, karena hampir tak ada ruang gerak untuk pembenahan infrastruktur fisik. Segalanya sudah tersedia dengan kualitas prima.

27. The World competitiveness scoreboard Source: International Institute for Management Development, World Competitiveness Yearbook, 2009.

28. Economic temperature cooler .. Inflation returns 1 digit, y-o-y, % 18.4 14.6 percent 4.6 3.4 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: BPS.

29. Inflation remains high in the region August inflation, y.o.y Source: World Bnak, September 2009

30. BI Rate bertahan di 6.5 persen Source: Bank Indonesia.

31. Level of credits to GDP, 2009

32. Belanja pemerintah masih seret Dana yang ditarik pemerintah (pajak, SUN, ORI, Sukuk) parkir dalam rekening pemerintah di BI. Belanja APBN yang tersendat (a.l. karena eskalasi biaya proyek) juga berdampak negatif terhadap likuiditas. Source: Diolah oleh Danareksa Research Institute.

33. Heart beat has been appreciating ... (Rupiah per US$) Source: Bank Indonesia

34. Foreign reserves increasedmore than $7bil. (US$ million) Source: Bank Indonesia.

35. JSX index recovered significantly Business Week, 14-21 Maret 2007, hal.18. (Jakarta composite index)

36. Balance of payments (US$ million) Source: Bank Indonesia.

37. The role of FDI in Asia & South America, 2006 FDI flows to GFCF FDI stocks to GDP Notes: FDI = Foreign Direct Investment (inward); GFCF = Gross Fixed Capital Formation; GDP = Gross Domestic Product. Source: UNCTAD, World Investment Report 2007.

38. Indonesia’s post-crisis journey Quarterly GDP growth, y-o-y, % 6.6 6.4 5.4 4.2 Gus Dur: “Erratic/shaky” Megawati: Consolidation and acceleration SBY: Throws away Momentum, and then made correction Crisis peak Source: BPS.

39. Low quality — Sectoral growth rate(2000 base year, year-on-year growth rate, %) Source: BPS.

40. Growth of manufacturing industries % change, year-on-year Source: BPS.

41. Low quality growth, 2000-2009*(%) Non-tradable GDP Tradable Source: BPS.

42. GDP growth by expenditure (y-o-y, %) 2009 Source: BPS..

43. Foreign merchandise trade Ekspor total maupun nonmigas mulai naik sejak Juni (m-to-m) Billion US$ Growth (yoy) Description * January-February Source: BPS.

44. Foreign merchandise trade: monthly

45. Trade balance Indonesia-China (non-oil & gas) US$ billion *January-February Sources: BPS

46. Trade balance of oil and oil products Source: BPS.

47. Trade balance of oil and gas US$ million Source: Badan Pusat Statistik.

48. Commercial vehicle sales & cement consumption

49. Konsumsi semen naikke level tertinggi

50. Indonesia: foreign visitors arrivals Visitors: 2008 = 6,234,497 2009 = 6,323,730 Growth: Dec 2009 (m-t-m) = 17.63% Jan-Dec 2009 (y-o-y) = 1.43% Jan-Feb 2010 (y-o-y) = 13.57% 2008 2009 2010 Sources:BPS