Anticipating future of local employment and skills needs

1. Anticipating future of local employment and skills needs Ian Wheeler Head of Research and Labour Market Intelligence

2. “As for the future, your task is not to foresee it, but to enable it.” Antoine de Saint-Exupery The role of skills and labour market intelligence

3. Sector wide intelligence: The core SSC remit • As a Sector Skills Council we are responsible for developing skills and labour market intelligence for the UK’s health sector • Outputs on our website • Sector Skills Assessments, UK and for each nation • Expert/Working papers • Themed research • Future oriented work • Online LMI tool

4. Key issues around developing using local intelligence • Planning on workforce issues often falls into the trap of more of the same, difficult to the see the link with the demand for health services • Difficult for employers to have local visibility of all that is needed to develop the right people for the services they want to provide • Local information/intelligence is valuable but difficult to source • Performance and productivity and its linkages to people skills and health needs is critical

5. Skills for Health’s local intelligence response Profile of health demand and consumers Using ACORN Health ACORN consumer profiling Health observatory intelligence Patient satisfaction surveys Profile of performance using key performance indicators derived from SFH Benchmarking database, NHS Information centre, CQC, and employers own Employment and Skills intelligence LFS, ABI, ESR, staff surveys, skills passport employers own data

6. Future Problems compared to England Average (12%) – London 18%

7. Future Problems • Future problems affects an estimated 1.4 million people within Greater London • Higher than average incidence of : • depression • asthma • insomnia • migraine • anxiety and stress disorders • ulcers, anaemia, hepatitis and HIV may be prevalent in some parts of this group • smoking and obesity

8. Local Level Intelligence – Lewisham

9. Benchmarking local health profiles in london to others in the UK • Barking and Dagenham - Highest proportion of resident population with existing problems with 35% and is similar in health profile to St Helens although the same proportions of EP are seen in Glasgow City and Liverpool • Tower Hamlets – highest proportion of resident population harbouring future problems with 50% is the highest in the whole of the UK

10. Benefits and outputs • Link between demand for health care, performance of service and the skills and people needed make improvements • A collective approach with different institutions in a area - who might deliver services • Provides a direction of travel - priorities for skills development and skills utilisation • A very flexible approach, eg can look at local workforce in a number of ways

11. Scenario planning – why do it?How we do it Plausible, credible, challenging futures Current state of play Drivers for change

12. Business and Economy Class Emerging economies drive global growth, but the effects are not shared by all, leading to polarisation between the haves and have not’s. A growing older population develops a ‘grey power’ lobby that becomes more influential and looks after its own. As part of a two tier system ‘Robonurse’ links individuals with central monitoring systems so that people can be maintained and supported in their own homes. Spare body parts are readily accessible over the internet. The future (s) Business and economy class United we stand In this scenario, people take more personal responsibility and there is greater willingness within communities to ‘improve their lot’. Increased volunteering and non-traditional partnerships contribute to healthcare provision. There is stronger cohesion within the EU where Brussels ‘rules’, and the influence of traditional UK institutions is reduced. Its your choice Its your choice Here we see a fragmented self-centred world, reduced influence and number of Quangos. Funding constraints leading to greater inequalities between young and old and between ethnic groups, and decisions on priorities are made locally with no single ownership of health care. Technology and the internet allow people to self-diagnose and take ownership of their diagnostic outcomes. United we stand

13. Testing your options SCENARIO 2 SCENARIO 1 SCENARIO 3 Success? Failure? Dependent on scenario Introduce new role? Give more responsibility to pharmacists? Change skills mix? 13

14. Benefits of Scenario development and application • Team building • Early warnings - Spot early opportunities • Reducing risk: preparing for possible changes • Robust decision making: puts decision-makers together with topics and issues which they don't normally consider • Challenges accepted norms and makes people think about the discontinuities, shocks and changes that are likely to affect them • Look beyond the daily fire-fighting tasks • See over the official futures

15. Testimonies On Scenario planning and development “I attended one of Skills for Health’s scenario building workshops and I have to say it was one of the best sessions of this type I have attended. I have really learned a lot about the approach and how it can help me think creatively and comfortably about the future.” Linda Shrewsbury, Head of Workforce, NHS Warwickshire On complete perspectives approach “The reports offer us a series of unique insights, including pinpointing disparities between local health service supply and population demand. By using this information to optimise our services for local demand we will increase overall productivity and service quality.” Adrian Whittle, Head of HR and Organisational Development NHS Cambridgeshire and NHS Peterborough

16. Research and Intelligence Services • Service one – Intelligence on the current and future demand for services in your local area • Service two – Scenario planning • Service three – expert research on your skills and workforce issues

17. www.skillsforhealth.org.uk Ian.wheeler@skillsforhealth.org.ukkathy.tyler@skillsforhealth.org.uk