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Paris, November 19, 2007

OECD WORKSHOP ON THE MEASUREMENT OF THE HIGH-GROWTH ENTERPRISES. THE IDENTIFICATION OF HG ENTERPRISES The Italian case. Paris, November 19, 2007. Identification of HG. Let Nxx be the active population in year xx, reference year (xx=2005)

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Paris, November 19, 2007

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  1. OECD WORKSHOP ON THE MEASUREMENT OF THE HIGH-GROWTH ENTERPRISES THE IDENTIFICATION OF HG ENTERPRISES The Italian case Paris, November 19, 2007

  2. Identification of HG Let Nxx be the active population in year xx, reference year (xx=2005) Step1: a merge by identification code of the population Nxx and Nxx-1 to xx-3 → AA=N2002 ∩ N2003 ∩ N2004 ∩ N2005 Step2: we exclude the real births in xx-3 i.e. Rb(2002) from AA, then Poten_population=AA-Rb(2002)

  3. Comparing distributions Potential population AA versus Active population N By size class Dissimilarity index : Nxx versus AA Calculated by nace&size

  4. Potential population AA

  5. Size threshold : 10 or more employees in the beginning Step3: If employees(2002) ≥ 10 → reference for HG =140,401 for year 2005 Growth threshold : 20% per annum Step4: HG are obtained applying to the population of reference (step 3) the following rules to employees and to turnover: HG_empl - yes IF [empl(2005)/empl(2002)] ≥ 1.728 HG_tur - yes IF [turnover(2005)/turnover(2002)] ≥ 1.728

  6. Growth measured by employees or turnover Ratio= HG/pop_ref_hg= 14033/140401 *100= 10.0%

  7. HG by type of growth (employees or/and turnover) by sector of activity (%)

  8. Growth by events Step5: HG can grow because events of takeover. Takeover from units that cease Takeover from units that transfer activity Looking for such events in the period 2002-2005, we have identified 979 (7%) of HG with events. By excluding such events we obtain the “pure” HG, HG*= 13054 Ratio*= HG*/pop_ref_hg= 13054/140401 *100= 9.3%

  9. HG: with or without events?(1) HG with events and “pure HG”, by sector of activity (%)

  10. HG: with or without events?(2)

  11. HG : Turnover and employment Growth rates by size and sectors

  12. Gazelle It is that subset of HG that are real births in xx-5 and xx-4. For xx=2005 gazelles are obtained by merging the real births 2000 and the real births 2001 with HG by identification code Step1: potential gazelle are identified as the potential population of HG born in 2000 and 2001 (the subset of real births in 2000 and 2001 surviving in 2005, with employees(2002) ≥10)

  13. Gazelle

  14. Working in progress Changing Growth threshold

  15. Working in progress Alternative bases for measurements Varying threshold of growth BIRCH index m=(xt1-xt0) xt1/xt0 where xt1=employees(2005) xt0=employees(2002) HG by Birch are: the AA having m>=m[90%] OR m>=m[95%] of the distribution in the whole economy

  16. Working in progress Problem: which base to be used as reference population? AA size [1+] ? AA=902068

  17. Working in progress Comparison between HG and Birch top 10%

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