Indicators for Monitoring LRMPs

1. Indicators for Monitoring LRMPs Dave Daust

2. Outline • Indicators • Planning/Monitoring Paradigm • Reality 1. Missing Indicators • Reality 2. Missing Targets • Reality 3. Missing Strategies • Reality 4. No Explicit Models • Results and Recommendations

4. Indicator • Indicate: “To give a sign of” • Storm clouds indicate rain (note uncertainty) • Mileposts indicate progress (note repetitive feedback)

5. Indicators should be • Relevant to objective • Responsive to management • Readily measured • Often a tradeoff between relevance and responsiveness Grizzly Bears Road use # Dead Bears Road Density

6. Types of indicators • Did we do what we said we would? • What did we do that matters? • Implementation, Compliance, Prescriptive • Did it work? • Effectiveness, Validation

8. Planning/Monitoring Paradigm Where are we going? How do we get there? Are we on track?

9. Ideal Planning World Objective Public Where are we going? Main Strategy Scientists Indicator Target How do we get there? Land Managers

10. Ideal Planning/Monitoring World Objective Public Where are we going? Main Strategy Scientists Indicator Target How do we get there? Land Managers Current Value Are we on track? Sub-strategy Action Monitor

11. Partial Conceptual Model Ideal World Grizzly Bear Pop Objective Mortality Habitat Suitability Displacement other Road Density (Accessible) Mature/Old (%) Area Logged in Summer Indicator Gating Sub-strategy Construction Deactivation

13. Reality 1: Missing Indicators Objective Public Where are we going? Scientists Indicator Target How do we get there? Land Managers Current Value Are we on track? Sub-strategy Action Monitor

14. Partial Conceptual Model Real World LRMP Objective Maintain grizzly bear pop HLP Objectives Avoid human-bear conflict Maintain high-value habitat Minimize displacement Indicators None LUP Strategies No mainlines in high-value habitat; use temporary roads where possible Do not harvest critical habitat Harvest in winter Grizzly Bear Pop Mortality Habitat Suitability Displacement Road Density (Accessible) Mature/Old (%) Area Logged in Summer Gating Construction Deactivation

15. Reality 2: Missing Targets Objective Public Where are we going? Scientists Indicator Target How do we get there? Land Managers Current Value Are we on track? Sub-strategy Action Monitor

16. Reality 2: Missing Targets • Avoid human-bear conflicts • Provide woody browse in moose habitat • Limit motorised access in goat habitat • Maintain the health of the timber resource • Provide forests with mature/old characteristics in caribou habitat

17. Reality 3: No Sub-strategies Objective Public Where are we going? Scientists Indicator Target How do we get there? Land Managers Current Value Are we on track? Strategy Action Monitor

18. Reality 3: No Sub-strategies = Bad • Sub-strategies in LUPs provided interpretation of vague objectives • >50% > 90yr in key caribou habitat • Do not construct roads (or use gates) within 1km of mountain goat habitat • Sub-strategies brought clarity to management

19. Reality 3: No Sub-strategies = Good • No need to monitor “compliance” with strategies that are • too detailed • off-base • But whither clear guidance

20. Reality 4: Missing science Objective Public Where are we going? Scientists Indicator Target How do we get there? Land Managers Current Value Are we on track? Strategy Action Monitor

21. Reality 4: No Explicit Model Grizzly Bear Pop Road Density (Accessible)

22. Explaining Results State of the Forest Report • Road Density in GB Habitat • X1 = 0.5 km/km2

23. Reality 4. Compliance vs Relevance Compliance Relevance Risk to objective No H M Yes L X1 X2 Assumes strategies match expert models. Does not allow for improved models.

24. Compliance: compare to target

25. Relevance: compare to benchmark

27. Results: Dave’s indicators Objective Public Where are we going? Sub-objective Scientists Weak Target X Indicator Target Dave et al. How do we get there? Land Managers Where are we now? X Current Value Sub-strategy Monitor Action

28. Partial Conceptual Model Real World Public Objective Maintain grizzly bear pop Public/Science Objectives Avoid human-bear conflict Maintain high-value habitat Minimize displacement Indicators Dave’s Strategies No mainlines in high-value habitat; use temporary roads where possible Do not harvest critical habitat Harvest in winter Grizzly Bear Pop Mortality Habitat Suitability Displacement # C.O.s2 1 / #planners 1 / analysts Gating Construction Deactivation

29. Resulting Indicators Activity Direct Consequence Relevance Log old forest biodiversity growing stock timber area/yr displacement Road (+, -) road density mortality Road use m3/yr/zone displacement Silviculture tree species composition biodiversity stocking timber What did we do that matters?

30. Recommendations • Align planning/monitoring with knowledge • Develop and document explicit hypotheses (models) • Identify indicators (often key parameters) • Create strategies = indicator + target • Explain current status • Monitor strategies (prescriptive indicators) • Explain consequences = f(models) • Test hypotheses and improve models

32. Relevant Links closely to action but eliminate unnecessary detail Bear pop Dead bears Dead bears Road density Road density Road density Construction Deactivation