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NS4053 Pakistan Winter Term, 2014

NS4053 Pakistan Winter Term, 2014. Overview. Shahid Javed Burki Dual Pakistani / U.S. citizen Economist and Social Scientist Vice President World Bank, 1994-99 B.Sc., Government College University, Lahore (Physics + Mathematics) M.Sc., University of the Punjab (Physics)

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NS4053 Pakistan Winter Term, 2014

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  1. NS4053 PakistanWinter Term, 2014

  2. Overview ShahidJavedBurki • Dual Pakistani / U.S. citizen • Economist and Social Scientist • Vice President World Bank, 1994-99 • B.Sc., Government College University, Lahore (Physics + Mathematics) • M.Sc., University of the Punjab (Physics) • M.A., Oxford (Rhodes Scholar, Economics) • Harvard (Mason Fellow, Economics and Public Administration)

  3. Overview An economy in extreme distress that could be revived • Some questions needing answers • Establishment of a durable political order • A country in turmoil • Relations with the USA • Change is inevitable • Shaping the future • Conclusion

  4. Introduction • Pakistan’s future is uncertain • “Youth bulge” • Finance minister is optimistic • He’s the only one Source: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook.html

  5. Introduction Fiscal Responsibility and Debt Limitation Act (2005) • Reduce revenue deficit to zero • Bring down public debt to 60% of GDP • Improve govt. expenditures in social sectors and poverty

  6. Introduction • What’s the problem with Pakistan? • Western perceptions

  7. Introduction • What’s the problem with Pakistan? • Emerging extremism (anti-democracy)

  8. Introduction • What’s the problem with Pakistan? • 2013 General Election

  9. Questions needing answers • Where is Pakistan headed? • Democracy or Islamic Extremism • Unity or Secession • 2013 General Election • Failed Coups: 1949, 1980, 1995 • Successful Coups: 1958-71, 1977-88, 1999-2008

  10. Questions needing answers • Has democracy won? • Last 5 years are the worst 5 years for Pakistan’s economy • Is democracy bad for Pakistan’s economy? • Who will help? • USA? • IMF? • China? • Who will hurt? • Afghanistan? • South Asia?

  11. Questions needing answers • Religious conservatism? • Unrealized power of women

  12. Questions needing answers • Religious conservatism? • Unrealized power of women

  13. Questions needing answers • Religious conservatism? • Unrealized power of women

  14. Questions needing answers • Religious conservatism? • Unrealized power of women

  15. Questions needing answers • Where will Pakistan be in a few years? • Difficult to predict • Running theme of the chapter: • “Each of Pakistan’s current situations—political, economic, social, and historical—affects the other, but I would argue that political development must take precedence over other desired changes.” (Burki, p. 380)

  16. Establishment of a durable political order • Some progress has been made since 2008 • Continuing progress faces some challenges • Military interference • Judiciary • ‘People power’ • Legitimacy

  17. A country in turmoil • Can Pakistan avoid failure? • “The prospect of disaster, no matter how obvious, is no guarantee that nations will do what it takes to avoid that disaster.”(Krugman, The New York Times, July 2012) • Islamic extremism (Taliban) • Diversity: pro or con? • Must maintain strong ties with the U.S.

  18. Relations with the USA • USA is the most important source of funds for Pakistan • But in 2011… • CIA operative killed two civilians (January) • uhhh… Bin Laden (May) • US attack on border outpost killed 24 (November) • U.S. injections of ‘blood money’ still don’t cover the shortfalls in Pakistan’s tax revenues • What will happen when U.S. forces leave Afghanistan?

  19. Change is inevitable • Population is increasing • ‘Demographic window of opportunity’ • Good policies and good governance can reach annual GDP growth rates of 6-8% • Without appropriate policies, GDP can still grow 3-4% annually • Muslimization • Urbanization • Export Orientation • Relations with India

  20. Shaping the future • Development agenda policies • Revival of growth • Increasing domestic resource mobilization • Reconnecting the country with the world • Reducing income disparities • Investing in the development of the large human resource • Washington Consensus • Decisive action by the new 2013 government to harness potential (2014-18)

  21. Conclusion • Vast unemployed or underemployed youth • Revival of confidence in the economy • Improved governance

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