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Preliminary Summary of 2000-04 Baseline Regional Haze Monitoring Data AoH Meeting

This document provides an overview of the EPA Regional Haze Rule guidance, preliminary summary of 2000-04 baseline data, and sample glide path graphics from VIEWS. It reviews the program visibility goals and tracking progress methods. It also includes information on natural conditions and refinements in tracking progress. The document summarizes the baseline visibility and required reductions in haze index to meet 2018 RPG. It provides glide paths for specific locations and highlights the VIEWS tool for data analysis.

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Preliminary Summary of 2000-04 Baseline Regional Haze Monitoring Data AoH Meeting

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  1. Preliminary Summary of2000-04 BaselineRegional Haze Monitoring DataAoH Meeting – Tempe, AZNovember 16/17, 2005 Joe Adlhoch - Air Resource Specialists, Inc.

  2. Overview • Review of EPA Regional Haze Rule guidance • Preliminary Summary of 2000-04 baseline data • Sample glide path graphics from VIEWS

  3. Review of RHR Guidance – Program Visibility Goals • Define current conditions at each Class I area using the 2000-04 baseline period • Define “natural conditions” • Improve visibility such that the average Haze Index for the 20% worst days in the baseline period reach “natural conditions” by 2064 • Ensure that visibility on the 20% best days does not degrade • Periodically assess the improvement in visibility between the baseline period and 2064 and show that “reasonable progress” is being achieved (reasonable progress goal, RPG)

  4. Review of RHR Guidance – Tracking Progress • Assemble daily speciated data and monthly f(RH) values • Perform allowed data substitutions, if warranted • Sites must have at least 3 of 5 years of “complete” data • Calculate daily extinction, convert to Haze Index (deciviews) • Determine the average Haze Index of the 20% worst and best visibility days for each complete year; average annual values for baseline • Determine Glide Path by comparing the 2000-04 baseline value with natural conditions

  5. Schematic of Glide Path From: Guidance for Estimating Natural Visibility Conditions Under the Regional Haze Rule, EPA 2003

  6. Review of RHR Guidance – Natural Conditions (Default Approach) • Begin with default values for annual aerosol concentrations (same across entire western U.S.) • Calculate annual extinction; convert to deciviews • Compute the 20% worst and best visibility (in deciviews) from this annual average and a default regional standard deviation of daily deciview values • Small variation in western sites’ estimated natural conditions caused by f(RH) function only

  7. Natural Conditions (Default) – Annual Aerosol Concentrations From: Guidance for Estimating Natural Visibility Conditions Under the Regional Haze Rule, EPA 2003

  8. Review of RHR Guidance – Refinements • RHR guidance allows for refinements of the steps taken to track progress and define natural conditions – but states must make their case that a refined method yields more reasonable results • Possible refinements: • The IMPROVE steering committee is currently reviewing the extinction equation and is expected to release a new version • Ivar Tombach has researched the question of natural conditions across the U.S. and has offered a variety of options for refinement • Additional data substitutions for sites with less than 3 years data • Other considerations must be considered such as cost and feasibility of emissions reductions

  9. Summary of WRAP Visibility (1) • Results shown here are preliminary • All baseline (2000-04) IMPROVE data have recently been revised (flow rate correction) • 10 WRAP IMPROVE sites did not meet baseline data collection criteria: • California: PORE, KAIS, RAFA • Montana: GLAC, FLAT, NOCH, MELA • Oregon: CRLA • Utah: CAPI • Washington: NOCA

  10. Summary of WRAP Visibility (2) • 2000-04 baseline visibility: Worst days (range): 9.9 to 23.5 deciviews Best days (range): 1.6 to 9.1 deciviews • Default natural conditions: Worst days (range): 6.8 to 8.1 deciviews Best days (range): 1.7 to 2.9 deciviews • Required reductions in haze index to meet 2018 RPG: Worst days (range): 0.7 to 3.8 deciviews Best days (range): -0.3 to 1.7 deciviews

  11. IMPROVE Monitoring Locations

  12. Baseline Visibility: 20% Worst Days

  13. RPG Improvement Required by 2018

  14. Variation in Baseline

  15. Summary for 20% Best Days 2018 Glide Slope Reductions Baseline Visibility

  16. WRAP Sites with Highest/Lowest 20% Worst Baseline Visibility

  17. Glide Path for Sequoia, CA 2018

  18. Glide Path for Denali, AK 2018

  19. Glide Paths on VIEWS http://vista.cira.colostate.edu/views/ • 2004 data still under final review, but expected to be accessible with VIEWS analysis tools soon • Go to the VIEWS home page and look for the “Development: Trends” link

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