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High resolution experiments with the ALADIN-Climate regional climate model

High resolution experiments with the ALADIN-Climate regional climate model. 1 st October 2009, Toulouse, France Gabriella Csima (Hungarian Meteorological Service). OUTLINE. The ALADIN-Climate model & experiment Validation results Results of the projection Summary, conclusions.

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High resolution experiments with the ALADIN-Climate regional climate model

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  1. High resolution experiments with the ALADIN-Climate regional climate model 1stOctober 2009, Toulouse, France Gabriella Csima (Hungarian Meteorological Service)

  2. OUTLINE • The ALADIN-Climate model & experiment • Validation results • Results of the projection • Summary, conclusions

  3. The ALADIN-CLIMATE model modification of the physical parameterization package ARPEGE/IFS Global circulation model ARPEGE-Climat Global climate model (early 90’s) ARPEGE-Climat Global climate model PHISICS ALADIN-Climate Regional climate model (middle of 90’s) Adaptation to Hungary in 2005 ALADIN Limited area model (LAM) DYNAMICS

  4. Main characteristics of ALADIN-Climate model

  5. Domain and orography ALADIN-Climate domain and orography ~10 km ARPEGE-Climate orography ~50 km

  6. PAST1960-1989

  7. Difference of annual mean temperature MODEL – CRU [oC] (1960 – 1989) 10 km; LBC: ERA-40 10 km; LBC: ARPEGE ~50 km – ARPEGE global model

  8. Difference of seasonal mean temperature MODEL – CRU [oC] (1960-1989) Spring Summer Autumn Winter 10km – LBC: ERA-40 10km – LBC: ARPEGE ~50 km – ARPEGE global model

  9. Annual relative difference of precipitation(MODEL – CRU)/CRU [%] (1960-1989) 10 km; LBC: ERA-40 10 km; LBC: ARPEGE ~50 km – ARPEGE global model

  10. Seasonal relative difference of precipitation(MODEL – CRU)/CRU [%] (1960-1989) Spring Summer Autumn Winter 10km – LBC: ERA-40 10km – LBC: ARPEGE ~50 km – ARPEGE global model

  11. TEMPERATURE (oC) Climatological annual cycle and Taylor-diagram for Hungary(1960-1989) CORRELATION PRECIPITATION (mm) STANDARD DEVIATION

  12. FUTURE2021-2050 2071-2100

  13. Seasonal boxplots of the ALADIN-Climate temperature simulation in the different periods for Hungary

  14. Monthly boxplots of the ALADIN-Climate temperature simulation in the different periods for Hungary

  15. Seasonal boxplots of the ALADIN-Climate precipitation simulation in the different periods for Hungary

  16. Seasonal precipitation Spring Summer Autumn Winter Significance ALADIN 2021-2050 0.2 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 1.1 % ALADIN 2071-2100 0.2 % 92 % 0.0 % 0.0 %

  17. Monthly boxplots of the ALADIN-Climate precipitation simulation in the different periods for Hungary

  18. Conclusions Validation: • The ALADIN-Climate model is too cold andtoo wet • No added value (ARPEGE-Climate has slightly better results than the ALADIN-Climate) • ERA40 („perfect” LBCs) results are not better • Spurious noise along the boundaries => THE DOMAIN IS TOOSMALL! Projection: • Significant warming trend • Strongest temperature increase in late summer • Basically no change of annual precipitation amount – significant only: the summer drying at the end of the century

  19. Thank you for your attention!

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