Examination Committee: Dr. Ranjith Perera (Chairperson) Dr. Vilas Vitivattananon

1. Vulnerability of Maldives Islands to Climate Change and Extreme Weather Events: A Study on Perceptions, Impacts & Adaptations by Miruza Mohamed • Examination Committee: • Dr. Ranjith Perera (Chairperson) • Dr. Vilas Vitivattananon • Prof.Sivanappan Kumar

2. CLIMATE CHANGE & ITS IMPACTS Why Small Islands & in Particular Maldives? • Small Islands - Amongst the most vulnerable to climate change and its consequences • Maldives - Amongst the four countries (worldwide) comprised entirely of low lying atolls • Geophysical nature- small (235sqkm of land area, 96% less than 1 sqkm), low lying (80% land area less than 1 meter above MSL, 42% of the population & all housing structures within 100m of the coastline) unconsolidated islands • Import-dependent and a LDC

3. Rationale of the Study • Why concentrate on Climate Change, Why Extreme Weather Events Many studies on SLR, less on extreme weather , its impacts & Adaptation. Already experiencing the impacts • Why specifically on RUC & why HOUSEHOLD LEVEL Solution to unconsolidated nature = RUC/Safer Islands with high population and developed infrastructure high density settlements exposure of more people in a single location

4. Research Questions & Objectives To Understand and describe the climatic threats and its impacts to the urban settlements of the Selected RUCs To identify climate change impacts on households and to analyze the adaptation actions taken in addressing the climate variability and extreme weather events To determine the public perceptions of and knowledge of climate change to determine the consciousness of the general public What are the climatic Threats to urban settlements in the selected Regional Urban Centres (RUC) and in what ways have these threats affected RUCs? How have households of these regional centres responded to the impacts of climate induced events? How are climate change and its effects perceived by the households of these urban centres?

5. Observed evidence and projections for climate change • Observed SLR in Maldives – long term trend 1.7mm/yr – towards the upper end of estimated range of global SLR over the past century & above the central estimate rate- 1.5mm/yr • Increasing the frequency and intensify of extreme weather events in Maldives: • flooding in more than 90 inhabited islands over the last 6 years at least one • 37 islands flooded regularly • In 2004, one event alone caused flooding in 71 inhabited islands, in 2007, one event alone affected 60 islands in 16 atolls

6. Adaptation to Climate Change • Adaptation - an important option for reducing vulnerability to long term climate change impacts • Adaptive Capacity - the ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences (IPCC, 2001). • Knowledge – a pre-requisite for adaptation. “Formulation of adaptation measures requires how to utilize and enhance local and indigenous resilience practices and knowledge possessed by local communities.”(Japan, 2007)

7. Conceptual Framework Global Climate Change Slow on set changes Sudden, Extreme Events Impacts on Coastal Areas/Small Islands Perception/Knowledge Adaptation Adaptation to What? How doesAdaptation occur? Who & What Adapts? What Type of Adaptation?

8. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

9. Selection of the study areas • Urban regional cenres- impacts more if an event strikes. • Selected for Population Consolidation Programme/Safer Island • Most urbanized and high population concentration • Importance in the context or urbanization- growth centres • Importance at the national scale • Have 2 sea ports out of the total 3 in Maldives, 2 airports out of the four airports, Highest health & facilities (except for Male’)

10. T H E S T U D Y A R E A S

11. S. Hithadhoo N

12. HDH. KULHUDHUFFUSHI Hdh. Kulhudhuffushi N

13. Methodological Framework Inputs Stages & Outputs Inputs Climate Records Historical Data Document Review Climate change related events Identification (THREATS) Document review, Views from Local people, His oral impact Identification Related Impacts Identification Household Survey Household Level Island Level Household Survey Perception on local and global climate issues Relevant Adaptation Behaviour Household Survey Household Level

14. RESEARCH FINDINGS

15. Vulnerability of Two Islands to Climatic Variability Hdh. Kulhudhuffushi • Exposed to NE monsoon generated winds & storm activities originating from the cyclone belt of Indian Ocean –storm surges and windstorm • S. Hithadhoo • Most southern- so exposed to wave actions from both E & W directions in Indian ocean – exposed to southwest monsoon related surges and long distance swells

16. Climatic Trends of two study areas

17. Climatic Trends of two study areas contd… Max- 31.3 °C +0.9 °C/year N, and +0.04 °C/year S

18. Climatic Trends of two study areas contd…

19. Most Common Events & Impacts at Island Level Flooding, damage to plants and household appliances Heavy rainfall Wind storm Blowing off roofs and damage to plants Flooding & damage to plants Swell surges

20. Determinants of Adaptive capacity and Social Vulnerability Gender of the respondents- Females were more vulnerable than males (Dwyer et al. 2004). Household Size- large households more vulnerable than small households- • Household Income &Types of Employment -important • for determining the vulnerability, coping capacity and • recovery after an impact • Educational Level – educated populations are important • in reducing the vulnerability

21. Household Perceptions of Local weather patterns • HDH. Kulhudhuffushi • 91.2% believed that local weather pattern is changing • 65.5% believed that temperature has increased • None believed that temperature has decreased S. Hithadhoo 86.6% believed that local weather pattern is changing 55.0% from S. Hithadhoo Other observations include that rain & wind episodes are more stormy, Rain in unexpected times, Increase in storm surges, flooding and disasters, etc

22. Household Perceptions of and knowledge of Global Climate Change (Causes) S. Hithadhoo 95% believed that local climate is changing 44% knowledgeable on causes 43% identified GHGs emission HDH. Kulhudhuffushi 91.0% have heard about climate change 42% knowledgeable on causes 51% identified GHGs emission Respondents education attainment with their knowledge of causes of climate change showed a relationship so does with their types of occupation

23. Household Perceptions of and knowledge of Global Climate Change (Causes) contd…

24. Household Perceptions of and knowledge of Global Climate Change (Impacts) HDH. Kulhudhuffushi Comparatively respondents were more aware on impacts of climate change 77% knowledgeable on impacts • S. Hithadhoo • 64% knowledgeable on impacts Respondents education attainment with their knowledge on impacts of climate change showed no relationship however, with types of occupation there appeared a relationship Housewives and unemployed people are more knowledgeable on impacts than causes of climate change

25. Household Perceptions of and knowledge of Global Climate Change (Impacts) contd…

26. Household Perceptions of and knowledge of Global Climate Change (gender) An important indicator for assessing the vulnerability Poverty – both a cause of vulnerability and a consequence of hazard impacts linked with female

27. Household Impacts & Adaptive Behaviour HDH. Kulhudhuffushi 20.4% households affected (heavy rainfall, high temperature, Windstorm, Swell Surges & thunderstorm S. Hithadhoo 31.5% household (heavy rainfall, high temperature, Windstorm & thunderstorm

28. Individually Perceived ability • Most on ‘stopping cutting down trees (57.5% Kulhudhuffushi & 48.3% in S. Hithadhoo) Most importantly respondent’s responses on ‘what they can do as an individual to alleviate the problem of climate change’ was somehow related to the environmental problems existing in their islands As, more responses from Hdh as ‘use proper ways to dispose waste’ and ‘stop sand mining’ in Hithadhoo shows this.

29. Conclusions Change in climate patterns, exposed to swell surges, windstorm, etc Global Climate Change Sudden, Extreme Events Due to, heavy rainfall, swell surges, high temperature and thunderstorm, windstorm Impacts Perception/Knowledge Adaptation • Local Weather • Patterns • Causes & • Impacts of • Climate Change Who & What Adapts? How doesAdaptation occur? Adaptation to What?

30. Contributions • Findings of this research is expected to provide information to • MEEW, contributing climate change related events in the islands • Overall, this research could be extended to other regional urban centres • MOE- knowledge on climate change issues • MPND, Safer island Programme, Pop. Cos. Programe • To others researches based on these islands, as this research explored various year’s information on events

31. Policy Implications • While these centres are developed as safer islands and regional hubs, the impacts on households should be integrated when developing further infrastructure + building codes • NAPA should include adaptation actions by households based on their impacts • Different determinants of adaptive capacity should be included in NAPA • Policies towards strengthening awareness, should include specific climate change issues, their views.

32. Recommendations for further studies • Should extend to other regional urban centres • Should research on how people acquire climate change knowledge. • Flooding was one of the many impacts, thus, Ministry of Health should consider conducting a survey on health impacts of climate change on households • Socio-economic impacts and costs involved in impacts as well adaptation actions would be useful to determine the economic effects

33. THANK YOU