Turkish Opinions of the US

1. Turkish Opinions of the US E. Clare Gallaher eg2990a@student.american.edu http://www.eagle1.american.edu/~eg2990a American University SIS-600-005 AssenAssenov

2. Research Question: What, if any, effect do demographics such as gender, age, employment, religion, ethnicity, income, level of education, marital status, and the level of satisfaction with the way things are going on one’s own country have on the opinions of Turkish citizens of the United States? Hypothesis: Controlling for gender, age, employment, religion, ethnicity, income, level of education, and marital status, satisfaction with the way things are going in one’s own country is associated with a more unfavorable view of the united States. Research Hypothesis Research Question

3. We know, from the Pew Global Attitudes Project conducted in 2010 81.23% of a representative sample held unfavorable views of the United States. Using this study, we can infer that 81.23% of the Turkish population plus or minus approximately 3% has unfavorable views of the United States. • Who are these people and how do they differ from those that have favorable views of the US? These are important questions to US policy makers. • Knowing the answers to the above questions will help US policy makers identify who should be the focus of policy efforts to promote the United States. Background Info

4. Arab Muslim Attitudes Toward the West: Cultural, Social, and Political Explanations– Peter A. Furia and Russell E. Lucas • Furia and Lucas sought to test Samuel Huntington’s hypothesis that there is something endemic to Arab culture that renders it incompatible with Western Culture. Ultimately Furia and Lucas determined that Arab Islamic opinions of the West vary greatly and are largely determined by the policies of individual Western countries toward individual Arab countries • Why do they hate us? International attitudes towards America, American brands, and advertising – Randolph, Fullerton, and Kendrick • As a result of their research, Randolph, Fullerton, and Kendrick found that negative feelings toward the United States were consistent across the demographic spectrum when gender, religion, and country of origin were taken into account this may have been limited however by their sample which largely consisted of university Students Literature Review

5. The data source was the 2010 Pew Charitable Trust’s Global Attitudes Project • The Global Attitudes project is a series of public opinions surveys administered by in person interviews. The project which began in 2001 and has since conducted more than 270,000 interviews in over 57 countries reports on a variety of topics from around the world. • Sample size is 1003 respondents • 524 Men, 479 Women • 18-86 years (Mean = 37.9, Median = 34, Mode = 28) • Level of Response Rate – of the 1003 respondents 92 either did not respond or responded that they “didn’t know” when asked their opinions of the United States • This is a representative sample by accepted standards Data

6. Unit of Analysis: Individual • Dependent variable: Favorable or Unfavorable Opinions of the US • Originally ordinal (1=Favorable, 2=Somewhat Favorable, 3=Somewhat Unfavorable, 4=Unfavorable) • Median = 4 (Very Unfavorable 65.20%) • Recoded to be nominal (1=Favorable, 2=Unfavorable) • Mode = 1 (Unfavorable 81.23%) • We know, from the Pew Global Attitudes Project conducted in 2010 81.23% of the representative sample held unfavorable views of the United States. Since this is a representative sample we can infer that 81.23% of the Turkish population plus or minus approximately 3% has unfavorable views of the United States. Descriptive StatisticsDependent Variable

7. Unit of Analysis: Individual • Variables and LOM • Gender (Nominal) • Age (Interval/Ratio) • Religion (Nominal) • Employment (Ordinal) • Ethnicity - Turkish or Kurdish (Nominal) • Income (Interval/Ratio) • Marital Status (Nominal) • Level of Education (Ordinal) • Satisfaction with the country in general (Ordinal) Descriptive StatisticsIndependent Variables

8. Bivariate AnalysisDependent Variable: Attitudes Toward the US (1=Favorable, 2=Somewhat Favorable, 3=Somewhat Unfavorable, 4=Unfavorable)

9. Probit Analysis EstimatesDependent Variable: Attitudes Toward the US (0=Favorable, 1=Unfavorable)

10. The Bivariate Analysis indicates that further research is needed in order to determine which demographics in Turkey hold unfavorable views of the United States. Only Age and Overall Satisfaction demonstrated a statistically significant relationship with Attitudes toward the US. • While the Probit Analysis does identify four demographic groups with statistically significant correlation between the dependent and independent variable Model 4 and 5 demonstrate multicolinearity between the variables. • Based on this study we cannot reject the null hypothesis that a statistically significant relationship does not exist between demographic and opinion of the US. More research is needed in order to do so. • Based on this study, it seems the only independent variable who’s relationship to the dependent variable maintains statistical significance throughout all models of analysis is satisfaction with the way things are going in one’s own country in general. Research Findings

11. The fact that 81.23% of the representative sample of the Turkish Population holds unfavorable views of the United States means that it may be hard to isolate certain demographics who’s opinion of the US differs from others. Likely all demographics are represented in the group that holds unfavorable views of the US. • While more research needs to be done in order to identify who the target demographic of diplomatic efforts should be, there is no question that the majority of Turkish people hold unfavorable views of the United States, therefore the findings of this study indicate that policy efforts should focus on the entire population rather than a single demographic. Policy Suggestions and Implications

12. Furthermore, the fact that the independent variable which most strongly correlated with favorable or unfavorable opinions of the US was the respondents own level of satisfaction with the way things are going in their country means that perhaps the focus of efforts to improve Turkish opinions of the US should not be one demographic group, rather is should be to improve the satisfaction of the Turkish population with the way things are going in their own country? More research would be needed in this area. Policy Suggestions and Implications