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Saskia Werners Alterra, Wageningen University & Research Centre, NL

Vulnerability of the Socio-economic Worlds of the IPCC Scenarios to Sea Level Rise & Water Stress. Saskia Werners Alterra, Wageningen University & Research Centre, NL Roel Boumans, Bob Costanza GUND Institute for Ecological Economics, Vermont, US

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Saskia Werners Alterra, Wageningen University & Research Centre, NL

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  1. Vulnerability of the Socio-economic Worlds of the IPCC Scenarios to Sea Level Rise & Water Stress • Saskia WernersAlterra, Wageningen University & Research Centre, NL • Roel Boumans, Bob CostanzaGUND Institute for Ecological Economics, Vermont, US • Today: - context research (IPCC Scenarios & GUMBO model)- conclusions for today’s meeting

  2. Question for you: Assume there are 2 worlds: • Equal in GNP, population and energy use • Different in a focus on agriculture versus services and in resources management Would these 2 worlds be : A. Equally vulnerable to climate change B. Different in vulnerability to climate change C. Don’t know / no opinion

  3. Most analyses of impacts of climate change use GNP, population & energy use as driving forces Research Goal:Understand how complex dynamic socio-economic conditions influence our world’s vulnerability to climate change in the coming century Note: NOT: vulnerability of 1 sectorunder different climate scenarios INSTEAD: influence of complex socio-economic conditions on vulnerability. By: • SimulatingIPCCScenarios(storylines to climate change & (feed)back) in Global Unified Meta model of the BiOsphere: GUMBO

  4. Model parameter • Investment strategies • Technology development • Resources management • Labor particip. • Health&Educat. • Model variables • population • gross world prod • ecosystem goods&services • knowledge • energy • land-use &cover SRES storylines • Emission scenarios • CO2 emissions • Climate scenarios • temperature change • sea level rise • precipitation GUMBO model equations feedbacks and impacts IPCC & GUMBO

  5. Global Unified Model of the BiOsphere:GUMBO • System thinking (integration, feedbacks, change) • Programmed in Stella environment (runs in 30 sec) • Almost 1000 variables and 2000 parameters • No spatial resolution; accounts for carbon, nutrient, water fluxes across 11 land covers and 4 capital stocks (natural, social, human, built capital). Global model->Closed cycles • Free available from internet

  6. Vulnerability to sea level rise and water stress in agriculture depends not only on SRES driving forces but also on socio-economic world of SRES storylines • Evaluation of alternative multidimensional socio-economic conditions is important addition to understand our world’s vulnerability to climate change • Meta Modelcan offer a promising, flexible and fast environment for the assessment • Challenges: • Adaptation to existing climate variability can increase long term vulnerability • Dynamic evolution of socio-environmental conditions, adaptive capacity and global change (incl regime shift) • Want to know more?: saskia.werners@wur.nl • GUMBO (incl. model): www.uvm.edu/giee/GUMBO Conclusions

  7. Method & Results B1: This storyline describes a convergent world with rapidchanges in economic structures towards a service and information economy, with reduction in material intensity, + introduction of clean&resource-efficient technologies.

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