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Global Trends and Civic Activism 2012 – 2030 : Radical Change!

Global Trends and Civic Activism 2012 – 2030 : Radical Change!. Juraj Mesík Citizen Participation University, Hungary, July 2012 mesik@changenet.sk. Working Hypothesis: „Period of the long growth hit the limits and is finished – period of the long descend is beginning “

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Global Trends and Civic Activism 2012 – 2030 : Radical Change!

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  1. Global Trends and Civic Activism 2012 – 2030:Radical Change! Juraj Mesík Citizen Participation University, Hungary, July 2012 mesik@changenet.sk

  2. Working Hypothesis: „Period of the long growth hit the limits and is finished – period of the long descend is beginning“ Structural, not cyclic crisis If 3S /civic groups are to stay relevant, they must change radically - cosmetic changes do not suffice

  3. Real Crisis is only at the very • beginning – and it will last decades • - Financial Crisis – the end of life on debt • - Peak Oil and its economic consequences • - Destabilization of global climate... • ...leading to food crisis • Accelerating social polarization • ... And other fundamental global trends are out of human control... • - Large discontinuites – not linear processes!

  4. Key Trends for 2010 - 2030 Period Climate Change – intoxication of the environment by our „metabolites“ – CO2, CH4, NOx Peak Oil – depletion of crucial resource base for human civilization. Many other “peaks” – “Peak Everything” Food (in) security Water crisis Financial systems collapse and economic contraction Social polarization Peak of human population growth Key questions are not „if“, but: How Fast? How Far/High/Deep?

  5. How fast? • Bill: „How you went bankckrupt?“ • Mike: „At the beginning gradually, and then suddenly“ • Ernest Hemingway, The Sun Also Rises • Not if, but when • Tipping points dynamics • Dozens of potential black swan (trigger) events: • Chinese growth below 8.5% in 2012 • More QE in the USA • uprising / war in Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, Iraq... • Israeli attack on Iran • drought or summer heat wave in the USA, Russia... • Eurozone shocks – Spain, Italy... and many other

  6. Since 1980, whole economic growth of the USA is financed by debt ...

  7. U.S. trade balance history: since 1980 imports payed by printed paper

  8. But not only USA are indebted up to ears... These, not only Greek or Spanish debts are not payable

  9. Illusion of global wealth

  10. Illusion wealth waiting for „price discovery“: ghost cities of China, mirage cities of Arabia

  11. Big question: how are 7% distributed among bottom 99%? http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2012/03/income%20disparity.jpg

  12. The latter three groups saw their median household net worthfall by roughly 60% between 2005 and 2010, while the median net worth for white households slipped 23%. http://money.cnn.com/2012/06/21/news/economy/wealth-gap-race/index.htm?iid=HP_LN&hpt=us_c2

  13. Geography of Income (in)equalities) – Gini Index

  14. http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/images/content/208488main_global_temp_change.jpghttp://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/images/content/208488main_global_temp_change.jpg

  15. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/news/2007/img/co2_data_mlo.2007.m.gifhttp://www.esrl.noaa.gov/news/2007/img/co2_data_mlo.2007.m.gif

  16. http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/files/2012/02/Figure2.png

  17. Ice Free Arctic in Summer 2015? - Peter Wadham, U. of Cambridge http://arctic-news.blogspot.sk/2012/03/rebuttal-imminent-collapse-of-arctic.html

  18. Which regions face Dust-Bowlification - Palmer Drought Severity Index • - reading of -4 or below is considered extreme drought • Much of Latin America, including large sections of Mexico and Brazil • Regions around Mediterranean Sea, which could become especially dry • Large parts of Southwest Asia • Most of Africa and Australia • Southeast Asia, including parts of China and neighboring countries

  19. 2011 was impacted by the 5th-largest La Niña influence of any given year since 1950, and the largest since 1974 Average of NOAA, GISS, and HadCRUT annual global surface temperature anomalies.  Blue bars indicate years influenced by La Niña events.  2011 is the warmest La Niña-influenced year on record (Source: WMO) (2011 - the 5th-largest La Niña influence since 1950, and the largest since 1974) http://www.skepticalscience.com/prediction-new-surface-temperature-record-2013.html

  20. Percentage of the contiguous U.S. either in severe or greater drought (top 10% dryness) or extremely wet (top 10% wetness) during the period January - November, as computed using NOAA's Climate Extremes Index. Remarkably, more than half of the country (56%) experienced either a top-ten driest or top-ten wettest year, a new record. Image credit:NOAA/NCDChttp://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html

  21. FAO Food Price Index, July 5, 2012

  22. Considering EROEI...

  23. http://205.254.135.7/EMEU/cabs/Yemen/images/Yeman%20oilprod&cons%201991-2011.gifhttp://205.254.135.7/EMEU/cabs/Yemen/images/Yeman%20oilprod&cons%201991-2011.gif

  24. „The world's oil reserves have been exaggerated by up to a third, according to Sir David King, the Government's former chief scientist, who has warned of shortages and price spikes within years. ... It's critically important that reserves have been overstated, and if you take this into account, we're talking supply not meeting demand in 2014-2015.“ The Telegraph, March 22, 2010

  25. And it can go much faster: Total indigenous UK production of crude oil and NGLs in the third quarter of 2011 was 22.7 % lower than a year before

  26. Geography of Oil - Vulnerability Top World Oil Producers, 2010(Thousand Barrels per day) 1 Saudi Arabia 10,521 2 Russia 10,124 3 United States 9,648 4 China 4,273 5 Iran 4,252 6 Canada 3,457 7 Mexico 2,983 8 United Arab Emirates 2,813 9 Brazil 2,746 10 Nigeria 2,458 11 Kuwait 2,450 12 Iraq 2,408 13 Venezuela 2,375 14 Norway 2,134 15 Algeria 2,078 Top World Oil Net Importers, 2009Thousand Barrels per Day) 1 United States 9,631 2 China 4,542 3 Japan 4,261 4 Germany 2,319 5 Korea, South 2,142 6 India 2,131 7 France 1,791 8 United Kingdom 1,566 9 Spain 1,440 10 Italy 1,397 11 Netherlands 962 12 Singapore 942 13 Taiwan 894 14 Turkey 650 15 Belgium 619

  27. Geography of Oil - Vulnerability Top World Oil Consumers, 2010(Thousand Barrels per Day) 1 United States 19,148 2 China 9,392 3 Japan 4,423 4 India 3,116 5 Russia 3,038 6 Saudi Arabia2,650 25 m. people 7 Brazil 2,560 8 Germany 2,489 82 m. people 9 Korea, South 2,249 10 Canada 2,237 11 Mexico 2,141 12 France 1,814 64 m. people 13 Iran 1,800 76 m. people 14 United Kingdom 1,626 15 Italy 1,503

  28. Geography of Oil - Vulnerability Top World Oil Net Exporters, 2009(Thousand Barrels per Day) 1 Saudi Arabia 7,300 wahabists 2 Russia 7,007 suspicious of the West? 3 Iran 2,407 hostile to the West 4 United Arab Emirates 2,270 ? (Arab spring II?) 5Norway 2,125 Liberal Democracy 6 Kuwait 2,124 ? (Arab spring II?) 7 Nigeria 1,939 on the brink of civil war? 8 Angola 1,874 OK 9 Algeria 1,773 ? (Arab spring II?) 10 Iraq 1,764 on the brink of civil war? 11 Venezuela 1,719 hostile to the West / U.S. 12 Libya 1,525 on the brink of civil war? 13 Kazakhstan 1,299 OK? Will follow Russia 14 Canada 1,137 Liberal Democracy 15 Qatar 1,077 ? (Arab spring II?) Source U.S. EIA : http://205.254.135.7/countries/index.cfm?topL=exp

  29. Annual global oil consumption is 1 cubic mile. To replace it would require: 200 Three Gorges dams 2,600 nuclear plants     5,200 coal plants     1,642,500 wind turbines 4,562,500,000 solar panels Inthe financial crisis conditions???

  30. Net Trade in Food: Vulnerability of MENA but also PIGS... Mexico...

  31. Why? Energy intensity of modern food production When food expensive, OPEC needs more money for imports http://articles.businessinsider.com/2011-10-21/markets/30305401_1_growth-in-global-oil-oil-reserves-oil-price/2

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