Does Russia have a future?

1. Does Russia have a future? The state of the country

2. The news this week: April 6th • Government of President Bakiev overthrown in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan • Last but one of the “coloured revolutions” to end in fiasco (others: Ukraine and Georgia) • Key country because of the US base serving forces in Afghanistan • Poor nation, mixed Kyrgyz, Uzbek, Russian population

3. The news this week: April 7th • Vladimir Putin and Donald Tusk commemorate the dead of Katyn • “Resetting” Russian-Polish relations after hostility of Kaczynski brothers anti-Russian policies • Striving to erase differences over history • New assurances about supply of gas to Poland • Poland key to closer ties between Russia and the EU • Russia’s objective: closer economic ties, visa-free travel between Russia and the EU

4. The News this week: April 7th • President Medvedev in Slovakia, joint celebration of the liberation of Slovakia by Soviet forces in 1945 • Part of the build-up to the 65th anniversary of VE day on May 9th • Russian charm offensive in Europe, piggy-backed on victory over Nazism: history as a weapon, but also a source of national solidarity • Baltic States – allied with the Nazis during war, feel isolated

5. The News this week: April 8th • Medvedev and Obama sign new SALT treaty in Prague • Obama presses new agenda on sanctions on Iran re: atomic weapons • Partners agree to examine problem of ABMs

6. Energy Politics • Energy politics: Ukraine’s game of chicken seems over with election of Viktor Yanukov as president • Russia has begun construction of direct gas pipeline “North Stream” to Germany through the Baltic, • Second direct pipeline “South Stream” to Balkans through the Black Sea • EU tries to develop alternative energy routes – e.g. through Turkey, bypassing both Russia and Ukraine

8. Europe, Russia and Eurasia • What are the borders of Russia? • Recognition of Abkhazia and S. Ossetia in 2008 means abandonment of strategy of legalism, upholding Helsinki accords • Could the Russian Federation break up? • Is the vision of Alexander Dugin – NATO / EU in the West, and a new Eurasian bloc in the East – the future? • Is Europe destined to be permanently divided along the civilizational fault-lines à la Huntington?

9. Anarchy is the mother of order • Russian state based not on reason, but on the emotional bond between Russians • Semblance of order covers an anarchic society where everyone does what he wants • Instinctive hierarchical gathering around a strong leader • Macho comportment – “not afraid to die” • Fatalistic attitude: one cannot change anything • Obeying the law is “boring”!

10. Uniting a multi-ethnic country • The task: instill Russian patriotism but respect for the different minorities in the country • April 1st: religious instruction “Fundamentals of Religious Cultures and Secular Ethics” introduced in fourth grade • “Among the options are the basics of the four main religions – Orthodoxy, Islam, Buddhism and Judaism – and a general course on world religions and secular ethics. • Only the first lesson entitled “My Motherland – Russia” will be the same for all children.”

11. 25 years later – what has changed? • Russians today… • …can travel freely • …can start a business • …can read any books they want • …can go on the internet • …can study abroad • …can emigrate • …can buy a car or an apartment • …can have several children

12. Work to be done • Stop terrorism threat in the North Caucasus • Combat corruption effectively: Transparency International Index • Improve the health care system • Counter alcoholism, drug taking and AIDS • Facilitate small businesses • Energy efficiency • Develop high tech sector

13. Achievements since 2000…

14. Mikhail Shemiakin’s decorations for the Nutcracker at the Mariinka • Act 2, Pt 1 • Act 2, Pt. 2 • Act 2, Pt. 3

15. Russian women…

16. Masyanya!

17. Oleg Kuvaev (b. 1967) Creator of Masyanya Somehow (Как-нибудь) 10 Racoons (10 дохлых енотов) Chicken (Курыцца)