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Modelling Cumulative Marine Effects for Ocean Governance

Modelling Cumulative Marine Effects for Ocean Governance. Michael Sutherland, Yanlai Zhao, Dan Lane and Wojtek Michalowski, School of Management University of Ottawa, Rob Stephenson and Fred Page, Department of Fisheries and Oceans, St. Andrews Biological Station.

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Modelling Cumulative Marine Effects for Ocean Governance

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  1. Modelling Cumulative Marine Effects for Ocean Governance Michael Sutherland, Yanlai Zhao, Dan Lane and Wojtek Michalowski, School of Management University of Ottawa, Rob Stephenson and Fred Page, Department of Fisheries and Oceans, St. Andrews Biological Station OMRN Conference 2005, Ottawa

  2. Outline • Methodology • GIS Processing • Yield Valuation • Issues • Conclusions

  3. VALUE SYSTEM Information Information Rights Individuals Individuals Restrictions Groups Groups Responsibilities Organizations Organizations Information ECONOMY Physical Environment SOCIETY POLITY

  4. An Aquaculture Case Study Grand Manan, NB

  5. Participants’ Perspectives from Pairwise Comparisons Goal Resources, Habitat, Effluent, Activities Herring, Scallops, Lobster, Urchins Salt Marshes, Rockweed Chemicals Weirs, Traps, Drags, Recreation Site Evaluation Methodology and Model Summary Marine Site Components Multicriteria Analysis (Goal Hierarchy) Site Options: GIS Evaluations (participant independent) as function of the spatial-temporal inventory

  6. Spatial overlay process Study area spatial and thematic datasets Yield valuations per dataset for entire study area Pair-wise processing of component data Yield valuation for layer a + layer b Yield valuation for layer a + layer c Yield valuation for layer b + layer c Overall yield valuation of selected area of interest for use in decision support Estimation of Cumulative Effects Select area of interest +

  7. Lobster Herring: Day/Night Habitat Scallops Rockweed Effluent Urchins Salt Marshes Chemical A Benthic Structures Current Flow Chemical B Chemical C Ecosystem Components Represented by Thematic Layers Socioeconomic Activities Biological/Ecosystem Resources Herring Weirs Scallop urchin drags Lobster traps Fish Farm Sites Recreation

  8. Potential for Ecosystem Component Interaction

  9. Ecosystem Interaction Rules

  10. Yield Evaluation of Overlapping Components B A AB ABC C BC AC pairwise overlapping Yield A’ Yield A + Yield A(B) + Yield A(C) + Yield A(BC)

  11. Yield Evaluation of Overlapping Components IE(1) = a(2 on 1) * Area of overlapping polygon (2 on1)

  12. Selected Area with Overlapping Layers

  13. Selected Area with Overlapping Layers

  14. Selected Area with Overlapping Layers

  15. Spatial overlay process Study area spatial and thematic datasets Yield valuations per dataset for entire study area Pair-wise processing of component data Yield valuation for layer a + layer b Yield valuation for layer a + layer c Yield valuation for layer b + layer c Overall yield valuation of selected area of interest for use in decision support Estimation of Cumulative Effects Select area of interest +

  16. Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) • Construction of the hierarchy model • Pairwise comparison • Synthesis of the priorities and ranking of the alternatives • Expert Choice 11 Group Decisions (EC11) AHP computer implementation software

  17. Hierarchical problem formulation: Participant dependent/Site independent Level 1 Goal Ecosystem Goal Level 2 components Resources Habitat Effluents Activities Level 3 Sub-Components R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 H1 H2 H3 H4 A5 C1 C2 C3 A1 A2 A3 A4 Level 4 Alternatives Alternative 1 Alternative 2

  18. 5 Participant Groups • Local Communities • Federal Scientists • Industrial Organizations • Non-governmental Organizations • Provincial Governments

  19. 0.6 0.5 0.4 R H 0.3 E 0.2 A 0.1 0 Local Federal Industrial NGO Provincial Communities Scientists Organizations Governments Attributed weights of the 5 participants on the 4 components: R, H, E and A (Resources, Habitat, Effluents and Activities)

  20. Provincial Governments NGO Industrial Organizations Federal Scientists Local Communities 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 Area1 Area2 Ranked Results of Selected Area by Different Participants

  21. Issues and Conclusions • The model design is in development but feasible • Access to and availability of real-world data • Access to reliable data of appropriate quality for further analysis • The nature of stakeholder relationships that facilitates data sharing • The stochastic nature of some data elements in the marine environment • Establishing a means of scoring and ranking the multidimensional yield results for decision-making

  22. Network Centres of Excellence www.aquanet.lixar.net

  23. Modelling Cumulative Marine Effects for Ocean Governance Michael Sutherland, Yanlai Zhao, Dan Lane and Wojtek Michalowski, School of Management University of Ottawa, Rob Stephenson and Fred Page, Department of Fisheries and Oceans, St. Andrews Biological Station OMRN Conference 2005, Ottawa

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