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Ecosystem Based Modeling for Sustainable Regional Development of the Marine and

Ecosystem Based Modeling for Sustainable Regional Development of the Marine and Estuarine Resources in Coastal NSW Philip Gibbs Karen Astles. The Program & Linkages. DPI/CSIRO 5 year collaboration ‘Umbrella program’ Comprehensive Coastal Assessment

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Ecosystem Based Modeling for Sustainable Regional Development of the Marine and

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  1. Ecosystem Based Modeling for Sustainable Regional Development of the Marine and Estuarine Resources in Coastal NSW Philip Gibbs Karen Astles

  2. The Program & Linkages • DPI/CSIRO 5 year collaboration ‘Umbrella program’ • Comprehensive Coastal Assessment • Enhanced decision support tools for NRM action plans (phase 2) • Northern Rivers CMA (CLAM project) • Initial project in Clarence Estuary • CSIRO National Research Flagships ‘Wealth from Oceans’ theme

  3. Objectives • Modelling frameworks for a multiple – use management of coastal environments • Develop and apply models of the ecosystem and human activities • Design and evaluate potential ‘monitoring programs’ Broad “Whole of Landscape” Modelling

  4. ProgramOutline Management Objectives Building virtual ecosystem (Operating model) Management strategy/ scenarios Atlantis Biogeochemical model Data Policy formation Management responses Presentation of outputs to decision makers Monitoring/ adaptive management

  5. impacts Humanactivities Ecosystem Modelling& Monitoring Management

  6. Interface Between Stakeholders Management Science

  7. Climate Change • National Adaptation Framework • Coastal Vulnerability Assessment • Increasing Temperature • Rainfall:- variability, total amount, ENSO • Sea level rise • Increasing ocean acidity

  8. Likely Impacts • Ocean current changes • Storm surges • Freshwater flow to estuaries • Habitat change • Recruitment patterns fish & invertebrates • Biodiversity, Threatened species, Marine pests • Socio economic effects

  9. Tools • Spatial biogeochemical model with coupled physical transport ‘ATLANTIS’ • Physical box model in 3 dimensions • Nutrient flow (nitrogen silica), mass balance of functional groups (physical, O2 CO2, living, detritus) • Trophic dynamics (food web) of primary & secondary producers / consumers (phytoplankton to dolphins) • Growth, mortality, recruitment, migration, consumption, excretion, predation, habitat dependency • Computational limit

  10. Timeframe 1950 to 2030 Fisheries management – catch, effort, gear, zoning, closures, by-catch Climate change Land-use Increasing population and urbanisation Socio economic change “What if” Scenarios

  11. The Future • Finer resolution of the shelf model nearshore component • Explicit representation of Marine Parks • Second estuary with a focus on urban rather than agricultural inputs • Coupling of estuary and shelf models • Documentation of the “what if” outputs

  12. Is Ecosystem Modelling Possible? Geophysical environment Plantsand Animals Politics People (social) Economics

  13. ThankYou

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