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Civil Engineering Industry Outlook SAFCEC; October 2010

Civil Engineering Industry Outlook SAFCEC; October 2010. GENERAL ECONOMIC BACKGROUND. Monetary Authorities released the brakes & may again (low inflation & growth) The World Economy recovering slowly Spending patterns not improving Institutional introspection Provinces & Nationally.

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Civil Engineering Industry Outlook SAFCEC; October 2010

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  1. Civil Engineering Industry Outlook SAFCEC; October2010

  2. GENERAL ECONOMIC BACKGROUND • Monetary Authorities released the brakes & may again (low inflation & growth) • The World Economy recovering slowly • Spending patterns not improving • Institutional introspection Provinces & Nationally

  3. SA Reserve Bank Leading Indicator

  4. Economic Indicators

  5. Construction Indicators

  6. THE LAST 10 YEARS

  7. Short Term Outlook Pessimistic

  8. New Tenders: Opinions

  9. New Tenders: Numbers

  10. Contract Awards

  11. Contract Awards

  12. Contract Awards: Structure or Cycle?

  13. New Projects announced NEDBANK

  14. Civil Engineering Turnover

  15. Future: 2010 & 2011

  16. SUMMARY • Pre-crisis order books unwinding • Short term decline due to spending delays • 2009 – -10% • 2010 – -39% • 2011 – 1,2% • Long-term: sector fundamentally well positioned

  17. Long Term: The “Think Tool”

  18. The “Long View”: Economic Infrastructure Investment

  19. SA INFRASTRUCTURE & DEVELOPED ECONOMIES

  20. SA INFRASTRUCTURE & DEVELOPING ECONOMIES

  21. SA INFRASTRUCTURE & DEVELOPING ECONOMIES

  22. SA INFRASTRUCTURE & DEVELOPING ECONOMIES

  23. Turnover vs Long Term Trends

  24. Turnover vs Long Term Trends 2010 Stadia GFIP Gautrain Transnet Pipeline Medupi /Kusile King Shaka Durban Harbour Ingula Mining TCTA SANRAL roads Coal 3 N1/N2 Nuclear 1 GFIP Phase 2 SAPREF Refinery N2 Wild Coast SASOL Expansions

  25. THE FUTURE: SANRAL (roads)

  26. THE FUTURE: TRANSNET (rail/harbour)

  27. THE FUTURE: ESKOM (electricity) LONG TERM ELECTRICITY GENERATING CAPACITY

  28. THE FUTURE: TCTA (water, excl LHWP)

  29. SUMMARY

  30. THANK YOU Henk Langenhoven hpl@safcec.org.za

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