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Winning the General Election

Winning the General Election. Anthony Downs. Median Voter Theorem. Median Voter Theorem. Assumptions: Single dimensional issue space Pairwise vote Voters always vote (no abstentions) Voters have one unique preferred position Voters’ preferences “single peaked”

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Winning the General Election

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  1. Winning the General Election

  2. Anthony Downs • Median Voter Theorem

  3. Median Voter Theorem • Assumptions: • Single dimensional issue space • Pairwise vote • Voters always vote (no abstentions) • Voters have one unique preferred position • Voters’ preferences “single peaked” • Parties/candidates maximize chances of winning • Preferences are normally distributed in electorate

  4. Median Voter Theorem • If all voters vote and their preferences are single-peaked and on a single dimension, then the median ideal preference can defeat all other positions in a pairwise vote.

  5. Questions • What are the incentives for general election candidates given MVT? • How will candidate behavior change if you substitute a skewed or polarized electorate for a normally distributed one?

  6. Critiques of MVT?Usefulness of MVT?

  7. Changes in the campaign environment • Professionalization • Specialization • Computerization • Polling • Communications technology

  8. What role do parties play in these campaigns? • Candidates hire partisan professionals to run campaigns • In most races, the candidate is on her own • In competitive races, the party can spend a lot of money • not always the way the candidate would like • Campaign finance laws favor candidate-centered system

  9. Campaign Finance Restrictions on party spending • Contributions to candidates • Coordinated spending with candidate • Independent expenditures in favor of candidate • Voter mobilization

  10. Limits on party spending

  11. Limits on how parties can raise money • National party committees can receive • $15,000 from PACs per calendar year • $25,000 from individuals per calendar year • State party committees (that deal with federal elections) can receive • $10,000 from an individual • Party units can transfer unlimited amounts between themselves

  12. Soft Money • Unregulated contributions TO state parties • State parties used to be able to use soft money for “party building” activities for federal elections • “Issue ads” allowed • What was so bad? • federal candidates helped raise it • issue ads advocated for candidates

  13. McCain-FeingoldBipartisan Campaign Reform Act • National parties can only raise money in regulated amounts (Hard money) • State parties have to fund activities related to federal elections with hard money (mostly) • All “electioneering communications” aired within 60 days of a federal election (or 30 days of a caucus/primary/convention) must be paid for with “hard” money • Parties can’t make both coordinated and independent expenditures. Have to choose.

  14. Effects of McCain-Feingold (BCRA) • Strange bedfellows in debate • Raises the importance of hard money

  15. Advantages of BCRA, 2004?

  16. Soft money

  17. Hard money

  18. Effects of reforms on parties? • Reduce importance to candidates • 527 organizations

  19. Top Ten Democratic 527s in 2004

  20. Top Ten Republican 527s, 2004

  21. Citizens United vs. Federal Election Commission

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