Resource Efficiency and Smart Cities: Driving Sustainable Development in South East Europe

1. Resources consumption forecasting and efficiency in South East Europe: the RE-SEEties experience Christos Nakos (cnakos@cres.gr) With the kind contribution of : Vasils Papandreou, Stravroula Papagianni Centre for Renewable Energy Sources (CRES), Greece Dr Monica Salvia, Dr Senatro di Leo, Dr Filomena Pietrapertosa Institute of Methodologies for Environmental Analysis, National Research Council of Italy Hrvoje Maras, Velimir ŠEGON, Vesna Kolega North-WestCroatia Regional Energy Agency, Croatia Sashe Panevski, Zoja Tarevska Macedonian Center for Energy Efficiency, FYROM 6th International Scientific Conference on Energy and Climate Change, Transnational Expert workshop 9-11 October 2013, Athens, Greece

2. Outline • The background framework • The role of the cities • The need for models and tools • The RE-SEEties Project ChristosNakos, 6th International Scientific Conference on Energy and Climate Change, Transnational Expert workshop 9-11 October 2013, Athens, Greece

3. Resource Efficiency • Resource Efficiency aims at producing more value while using less material and adopting different consumption patterns. • EC Roadmap to Resource Efficient Europe sets key priorities to direct the European economy towards sustainability by 2050 • The main aspects that should be managed involve: • changes in consumption aspects, • Further promotion of energy efficiency, • the use of waste as a resource, • resource efficiency through innovation, • use of economic tools, such as elimination of inefficient subsidies and correct price setting. Christos Nakos 6th International Scientific Conference on Energy and Climate Change, Transnational Expert workshop 9-11 October 2013, Athens, Greece

4. The Energy Roadmap 2050 • The European Union in the Energy Roadmap 2050, is committed to reducing its GHG emissions to 80-95% below 1990 levels by 2050. thanks to increased innovation and investment in clean technologies and low- or zero-carbon energy. • A low-carbon economy would have a much greater need for renewable sources of energy, energy-efficient building materials, hybrid and electric cars, 'smart grid' equipment, low-carbon power generation and carbon capture and storage technologies. • Energy efficiency will be a key driver of the transition. By moving to a • low-carbon society, the EU could be using around 30% less energy in • 2050 than in 2005. Households and businesses would enjoy more secure • and efficient energy services. • More locally produced energy would be used, mostly from renewable sources. Christos Nakos 6th International Scientific Conference on Energy and Climate Change, Transnational Expert workshop 9-11 October 2013, Athens, Greece

5. The urban dimension in climate change • Environmental problems cannot be spatially isolated and should not be dealt with solely in distinct policymaking levels • Through globalization process national capacities have been reallocated to transnational and regional levels • Cities are considered as the key growth engines and as centers of economic, political and social innovation • They can be strategic partners with business through PPP • Civil society and NGOs are quite more active in the city level • They hide a creative potential which should be enabled by policy instruments on the national level • Cities are emerging as the less contradictory platform to implement effective plans and strategies regarding climate change mitigation and adaptation in accordance with national objectives and international commitments. Christos Nakos 6th International Scientific Conference on Energy and Climate Change, Transnational Expert workshop 9-11 October 2013, Athens, Greece

6. Initiatives at local scale • The EU and national challenges on climate and energy issues have been acknowledged by local authorities, committing themselves to improve the quality of life of the people living in their towns through sustainable urban development. • Many initiatives are being carried out in this directions at European level, among which: • Energy Cities , the European Association of local authorities promoting energy efficiency, renewable energy and distributed generation; • CONCERTO, the initiative launched by the EC to support local communities in developing and demonstrating concrete strategies and actions that are both sustainable and highly energy efficient, • Covenant of Mayors, a commitment by signatory towns and cities to go beyond the objectives of EU energy policy in terms of reduction in CO2 emissions through enhanced energy efficiency and cleaner energy production and use, • Smart Cities initiatives aimed to demonstrate that the citizens’ quality of life and local economies can be improved through investments in energy efficiency and reduction of carbon emissions. Christos Nakos 6th International Scientific Conference on Energy and Climate Change, Transnational Expert workshop 9-11 October 2013, Athens, Greece

7. Smart city initiatives Making cities smarter and more competitive is one of the major EU challenges. Smart City initiatives have arisen Europe-wide to help cities to start planning their future in a new way: adopting a comprehensive multi-sector approach and accelerating innovation to become more sustainable and resilient Christos Nakos 6th International Scientific Conference on Energy and Climate Change, Transnational Expert workshop 9-11 October 2013, Athens, Greece

8. Energy Forecasting • appropriate long term planning methods and tools are necessary for achieving and preserving resource efficiency in the optimum way in terms of cost and benefits • In the city level the focus will be on: • 1. Buildings 2. Transportation 3. Utilities • The main energy demand drivers are: • 1. Demographics 2. Building Stock and expansion planning 3. Income, expenditure and energy commodity prices 4. City’s economic structure 5.Environmental parameters • There are two basic methods for Energy forecasting • Analysis of statistical data • Energy Systems Analysis • Analysis of statistical data • Simple forecasting techniques (e.g. elasticity based demand projection) • Econometric techniques Statistical data analysis requires available data from past years Econometric analysis cannot capture structural changes in the energy system Christos Nakos 6th International Scientific Conference on Energy and Climate Change, Transnational Expert workshop 9-11 October 2013, Athens, Greece

9. Energy System Analysis • A well established and widely used method for projecting energy demand is the use of energy system analysis models. • Energy System models are classified according to : • Mathematical Background • Simulation models • Optimization models • Technology Representation • Top – Down • Bottom-Up • I/O • Hybrid I/O • For urban energy systems analysis, sectorial (e.g. residential heat) bottom up models combined with simple methods of forecasting are mostly used mainly due to lack of resources, data and prioritization. Christos Nakos 6th International Scientific Conference on Energy and Climate Change, Transnational Expert workshop 9-11 October 2013, Athens, Greece

10. Waste Forecasting • MSWforecastingisneededto: • quantify the waste potentials of the main materials -- such as organic material, paper and cardboard, plastics and compounds, glass or metals • achieve accurate and reliable waste information in relation to: • MSW collectionsystem • Landdemandforlandfillingwaste • Incineratorscapacityevaluation • Little is known about how to estimate the quantity of future MSW streams • The majority of national or regional Waste Management Plans (WMPs) do not include forecasts regarding MSW generation and treatment capacity. • The choice of the method for forecasting MSW usually depends on the following criteria: • Amount and quality of available data (e.g. generation of waste, social-economic indicators) • Type of the data (e.g. continuous or random data) • Relationships of various parameters of waste generation and social-economic indicators • Expected changes in the field of waste management. • Quantitative vs Qualitative methods Christos Nakos 6th International Scientific Conference on Energy and Climate Change, Transnational Expert workshop 9-11 October 2013, Athens, Greece

11. The RE-SEEties project • Towards resource efficient urban communities in SEE • South East Europe Transnational Cooperation Program - 4th (final) call for proposals • Priority Axis: Protection and improvement of the environment • Area of intervention: Promote energy & resource efficiency • Project duration: 01/10/2012 – 30/09/2014 (24 months) • Budget: 2,249,103.66 EUR Christos Nakos 6th International Scientific Conference on Energy and Climate Change, Transnational Expert workshop 9-11 October 2013, Athens, Greece

12. RE-SEEties – The scope • Europe is facing problems of excessive energy consumption and uncontrolled waste production. • These trends are expected to increase in the future. • In South East Europe (SEE), these problems are manifested also through resource inefficiency as well as lack of coordination and a warenessregarding how to use resources more consciously. • There is an urgent need to address these challenges, which requires more innovative approaches on the part of governments and citizens alike. • RE-SEEties is a project with the long-term vision of turning South East European cities into more resource efficient urban communities. Christos Nakos 6th International Scientific Conference on Energy and Climate Change, Transnational Expert workshop 9-11 October 2013, Athens, Greece

13. RE-SEEties – Objectives • Improve integrated strategic planning and policy-making in the fields of energy efficiency, renewable energy and waste valorisation • The purpose is to change consumption patterns and support changing demands with innovative solutions, tools and incentives. • Sub – Objectives • FORECAST– analysis of current and future energy use and waste production at municipality level, to develop the baseline data for strategic planning. • TECHNOLOGY – application of sustainable energy and waste technologies in the urban context. • CHANGING BEHAVIOUR – addressing various target groups related to resource efficiency, offering solutions and alternatives for waste and energy. • POLICY – development of innovative policy-making tools, practices and incentives for resource efficiency. • SYNTHESIS – synthesis of project findings in the form of an integrated toolkit for SEE municipalities, to help them become resource efficient urban communities. • ENDORSEMENT – ensuring wider uptake of project results in SEE and EU, and endorsement at all policy-making levels. Christos Nakos 6th International Scientific Conference on Energy and Climate Change, Transnational Expert workshop 9-11 October 2013, Athens, Greece

14. RE-SEEties – The methodology • FOCUS ON CITY LEADERSHIP • City leaderships have a major role to play in influencing and incentivizingbehavior changing at local and regional levels. • Municipal actors are the core focus of the RE-SEEties project. • Eight SEE cities and regions were selected to design and implement these new resource efficiency strategies . • These cities and regions are supported by a consortium of professional institutions having expertise and dissemination power in the field Christos Nakos 6th International Scientific Conference on Energy and Climate Change, Transnational Expert workshop 9-11 October 2013, Athens, Greece

15. RE-SEEties – The methodology • European overview, state-of-art regarding methodologies, technologies, planning processes going parallel with resources forecasting at local level • Development and adaptation of an initial methodological framework with criteria for assessment • Strategy building process • City case study profiles • Elaboration process with peer reviews • Interim results assessed against the initially set up criteria for assessment. • Finalisation of the criteria • Integrated SEE methodological toolkit towards resource efficiency. • Conversion of project partner cases into local strategies and action plans (measures, budgetary forecasts and policy recommendations). Christos Nakos 6th International Scientific Conference on Energy and Climate Change, Transnational Expert workshop 9-11 October 2013, Athens, Greece

16. RE-SEEties – The partners Project partners : Associated Strategic Partners: • The Local Government of Budapest District 18,Hungary • Municipality of Aigaleo, Greece • Municipality of Potenza, Italy • City of Nitra, Slovakia • City of Skopje, Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, • Harghita County Council, Romania • City Municipality Ptuj, Slovenia • City of Ivanic-Grad, Croatia • Centre Renewable Energy Sources and Saving, Greece • National Research Council of Italy - Institute of Methodologies for Environmental Analysis, Italy • Energiaklub Climate Policy Institute and Applied Communications, Hungary • Harghita County Council, Romania, • Association of Towns and Communities of Slovakia, Slovakia • Energy Centre Bratislava, Slovakia • City Municipality Ptuj, Slovenia • City of Ivanic-Grad, Croatia Observer Partners: • ZELS - Association of Local Self Government of Republic of Macedonia, Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia • Province of Potenza, Italy • ICLEI - European Secretariat GmbH, Germany • Ministry of Environment, Energy and Climate Change, Greece • Institute of Sociology at Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Hungary Christos Nakos 6th International Scientific Conference on Energy and Climate Change, Transnational Expert workshop 9-11 October 2013, Athens, Greece

17. RE-SEEties – WPs structure • Workpackage 1: Transnational project and financial management – led by the LP (HU) • Workpackage 2: Communication activities – led by PP5 Energiaklub (HU) • Workpackage 3: Resources consumption forecast at municipality level – led by CRES (GR) • Workpackage 4: Strategies to enhance integrated municipality strategy and planning competences – led by CNR-IMAA (IT) • Workpackage 5: Strategy building process through peer reviews – led by REGEA (HR) • Workpackage 6: Embedding project results into national and EU policy frameworks – led by the LP (HU) Christos Nakos 6th International Scientific Conference on Energy and Climate Change, Transnational Expert workshop 9-11 October 2013, Athens, Greece

18. The RE-SEEties project: Towards resource efficient urban communities in SEE Christos Nakos (cnakos@cres.gr) Centre for Renewable Energy Sources (CRES) Thank you for your kind attention Christos Nakos 6th International Scientific Conference on Energy and Climate Change, Transnational Expert workshop 9-11 October 2013, Athens, Greece