International Workshop on Population Projections using Census Data

1. International Workshop onPopulation Projectionsusing Census Data 14 – 16 January 2013 Beijing, China

2. Session VII:Presentation of the results of projections • Guidelines and tools for the preparation of results • Presentation of country projections by participants

3. How to present the results of population projections • General guidelines – how to get the message cross • Preparing a report • Visual aids • Presentation Media

4. Population Projection – Presenting Results • Large amounts of data • Published in a number of different ways • A press release • An executive summary • A full report, sometimes with a number of annexes.

5. Getting the message cross • Who is your target audience? Government ??? General public experts

6. Getting the Message Cross • Why should my audience want to know/read about this? • Internet age, short attention span • The “snack culture”

7. Telling a Statistical Story • Is there a story? • What have you found? • How does it impact daily life? • Stories: • Social security not sustainable for the long term • World population growth will occur in urban areas • Non-stories: X The report is published today... X Population projection is prepared …

9. Telling a Statistical Story • Compelling headlines • The highest since, the lowest since … • Something new • The first time, a record, a continuing trend • Examples: • Gasoline prices hit 10-year high • Crime down for a third year in a row • July oil prices levelled off in August

10. Compelling Headlines

11. Telling a Statistical Story • Write like a journalist – the ‘inverted’ pyramid Right-side-up Inverted

13. Telling a Statistical Story • Make the number “stick” • Don’t peel off the onion, get to the point • Avoid proportions in bracket

14. Make the number “stick” (cont.) • Avoid changing denominators • Reduce big numbers to understandable levels

15. Technical Report - Elements • Title page • Table of contents • Motivation and objectives • Data source and assumptions • Findings • Conclusions and recommendations

16. Technical Report - Canada

17. Technical Report - Canada

18. Visual Aids • Charts • Maps • Other?

19. Explaining Assumptions Source: US Census Bureau

20. Projected vs Observed

21. Projections by scenario Estimated and projected world population according to different variants, 1950-2100 (billions) Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. New York

22. Showing the Contrast Population of Europe, Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa (millions) Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. New York

23. Pyramid

24. Pyramid - 2 in 1

25. Pyramid - Animated

26. Thematic Maps Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division: World Urbanization Prospects, the 2011 Revision. New York 2012

27. Interactive Maps Source: http://www.planning.sa.gov.au/instantatlas/ageingatlas/atlas.html

28. Presenting results - Media • Printed documents • Online presence • PowerPoint • Movies (YouTube, etc.) • Blogs • Social media

29. Presentation of country projection by participants

30. Thank you