Biomedical Longevity Revolution and its Consequences

1. Biomedical Longevity Revolution and its Consequences Dr. Leonid A. Gavrilov, Ph.D. Dr. Natalia S. Gavrilova, Ph.D. Center on Aging NORC and the University of Chicago Chicago, Illinois, USA

2. Trends in Life Expectancy at 60Females • Source: Human Mortality Database

3. Longevity Revolution through Biotechnology and genetic engineering • "... it may soon be possible to delay both aging and age-related disease in humans." (p. 162) The Longevity Revolution: The Benefits and Challenges of Living a Long Life. By Robert N. Butler. 553 pp. New York, PublicAffairs, 2008

4. Longevity Revolution (2) • "The present level of development of aging and longevity research justifies an Apollo-type effort to control aging ...” (p. 187)

5. Longevity Revolution (3) • "Enthusiasts over the future of cell, tissue, and organ replacement imagine successive, comprehensive reconstitutions of the body. Replacement or regenerative medicine would push death back, presumably indefinitely.“ (p. 401)

6. Longevity Revolution (4) • " "Indeed, some believe that humans can master their evolution. Among them is Aubrey de Grey of Cambridge University, who suggests a life expectancy of five thousand years by 2100 [17].“ (pp. 13-14)

7. New academic journal on life-extension and rejuvenation • Fully indexed by MEDLINE • Latest Impact Factor* is 4.138

8. Why Longevity Revolution may be delayed? Because it requires serious funding and commitment: • "It is sheer foolishness to imagine that we can extend life ... without substantial governmental participation" (p. 11) • “… in 2007 only about 15 to 20 percent of approved grants were funded, depending on the institute. I believe that at least 30 percent of approved grants (if not more) should be funded. ... When funds are tight, review committees act too cautiously and conservatively. Funds should be available to support risky research.“ (p.106)

9. Why Longevity Revolution may be delayed? (2) • “Today less than 1 percent of the entire federal budget is spent on medical research. Both to improve health and control costs, I propose that 3 percent of the nation's overall health bill ($1.8 trillion projected as 2005) or $54 billion be available to NIH for medical research from federal revenues. I also propose that of Medicare expenditures, 1 percent (or $3 billion) be devoted to the National Institute on Aging. (p.110)

10. Why Longevity Revolution may be delayed? (3) • “While the numbers I am suggesting may seem extraordinary, I believe the level of scientific progress in the field since the 1950s justifies such a program, which could be dubbed the Apollo Program for Aging and Longevity Science.“ (p.110) • "An orbital jump in financing of science is required to advance longevity and health as well as national wealth.“ (p. 118 - 119) Reference: The Longevity Revolution: The Benefits and Challenges of Living a Long Life. By Robert N. Butler. 553 pp. New York, PublicAffairs, 2008

11. General Prediction Effective life-extending technologies may appear within our lifetime However they will be initially expensive and not readily available Therefore, 'longevity risk' will be particularly high for persons who are HEWM: • Healthy (at baseline) • Educated • Wealthy • Motivated It is conceivable that such HEWM people may reach life expectancy of about 120 years in a foreseeable future.

12. What May Happenin the Case of Radical Life Extension?

13. Rationale of our study • A common objection against starting a large-scale biomedical war on aging is the fear of catastrophic population consequences (overpopulation)

14. Rationale (continued) • This fear is only exacerbated by the fact that no detailed demographic projections for radical life extension scenario were conducted so far. • What would happen with population numbers if aging-related deaths are significantly postponed or even eliminated? • Is it possible to have a sustainable population dynamics in a future hypothetical non-aging society?

15. The Purpose of this Study • This study explores different demographic scenarios and population projections, in order to clarify what could be the demographic consequences of a successful biomedical war on aging.

16. "Worst" Case Scenario: Immortality • Consider the "worst" case scenario (for overpopulation) -- physical immortality (no deaths at all) • What would happen with population numbers, then? • A common sense and intuition says that there should be a demographic catastrophe, if immortal people continue to reproduce. • But what would the science (mathematics) say ?

17. The case of immortal population Suppose that parents produce less than two children on average, so that each next generation is smaller: Generation (n+1) Generation n Then even if everybody is immortal, the final size of the population will not be infinite, but just larger than the initial population. = r < 1 1/(1 - r)

18. The case of immortal population For example one-child practice (r = 0.5) will only double the total immortal population: Proof: Infinite geometric series converge if the absolute value of the common ratio ( r ) is less than one: 1 + r + r2 + r3 + … + rn + … = 1/(1-r) 1/(1 - r) = 1/0.5 = 2

19. Lesson to be Learned • Fears of overpopulation based on lay common sense and uneducated intuition could be exaggerated. • Immortality, the joy of parenting, and sustainable population size, are not mutually exclusive. • This is because a population of immortal reproducing organisms will grow indefinitely in time, but not necessarily indefinitely in size (asymptotic growth is possible).

20. Method of population projection • Cohort-component method of population projection (standard demographic approach) • Age-specific fertility is assumed to remain unchanged over time, to study mortality effects only • No migration assumed, because of the focus on natural increase or decline of the population • New population projection software is developed using Microsoft Excel macros

21. Study population: Sweden 2005

22. Mortality in the study population

23. Population projection without life extension interventions Beginning of population decline after 2025

24. Projected changes in population pyramid 100 years later

25. Why Life-Extension is a Part of the Solution, rather than a Problem Many developed countries (like the studied Sweden) face dramatic decline in native-born population in the future (see earlier graphs) , and also risk to lose their cultural identity due to massive immigration. Therefore, extension of healthy lifespan in these countries may in fact prevent, rather than create a demographic catastrophe.

26. Scenario 1Modest scenario:Continuous mortality decline Mortality continues to decline with the same pace as before (2 percent per year)

27. Changes in Mortality, 1925-2007 Swedish Females. Data source: Human Mortality Database

28. Modest scenario:Continuous mortality decline An example for Swedish females. Median life span increases from 86 years in 2005 to 102 years in 2105 Data Source: Human mortality database

29. Population projection with continuous mortality decline scenario

30. Changes in population pyramid 100 years later

31. Scenario 2 Negligible senescence after age 60

32. Radical scenario: No aging after age 60

33. Population projection with negligible senescence scenario

34. Changes in population pyramid 100 years later

35. Conclusions on radical scenario • Even in the case of defeating aging (no aging after 60 years) the natural population growth is relatively small (about 20% increase over 70 years) • Moreover, defeating aging helps to prevent natural population decline in developed countries

36. Acknowledgments This study was made possible thanks to: generous support from the National Institute on Aging, and stimulating working environment at the Center on Aging, NORC/University of Chicago

37. Acknowledgments This study was made possible thanks to: generous support from the SENS/Methuselah Foundation

38. For More Information and Updates Please Visit Our Scientific and Educational Website on Human Longevity: http://longevity-science.org And Please Post Your Comments at our Scientific Discussion Blog: • http://longevity-science.blogspot.com/

40. Gavrilov, L., Gavrilova, N. Reliability theory of aging and longevity. In: Handbook of the Biology of Aging. Academic Press, 6th edition (published recently).