Stefanie D ü hr, Radboud University Nijmegen, The Netherlands

1. The territorial implications of demographic change in the North Sea Region – scope for a transnational planning approach? Stefanie Dühr, Radboud University Nijmegen, The Netherlands

2. The issues • Territorial impacts of demographic change and migration • Context of reform of EU Cohesion Policy and Objective 3 on territorial cooperation • What is the appropriate level for spatial planning responses? • What are the spatial development impacts from demographic change at the transnational level? • How can spatial planning / territorial cooperation at transnational level help to respond to challenges arising from the changing demographic context? • How can spatial impacts from demographic change be incorporated into the new transnational cooperation programmes?

3. Framework and methodology • Transnationality means having a territorial effect in more than one country and requiring co-operation across national borders for effective action • Study for the ‘Spatial Agenda’ for the INTERREG IIIB North Sea Region • Review of empirical evidence on the spatial impacts of demographic change and migration • Analysis of policy documents and studies at EU, transnational, national and regional levels • Workshop with 36 participants from different European countries, different levels of government and sectors (June 2005) • Telephone interviews with 26 key actors and decision-makers in the North Sea Region (I/2005) • Drafting of the new territorial co-operation programme for North-West Europe (2007-2013)

4. The North Sea Region context • Diverse and complex • demographic pattern in the NSR • Shared problems • polarisation tendencies and depopulation of rural areas • falling and ageing populations • fall in working age population and rising dependency ratios • challenge for economic competitiveness objective • rising international immigration Internal versus external linkages Change in population gainers losers Population density (inh./sq km)

5. Demographic change and planning policy • Lisbon-Gothenburg Strategy • EU Green Paper on Economic Migration • EU Green Paper on Demographic Change • National and regional plans only recently more attention to certain aspects of demographic change • Many relevant studies on demographic change in NSR countries • Management of growth versus coordination of decline

6. Key spatial challenges from demographic change Natural population growth • Provision of affordable housing relevant to stimulate fertility rates Population structure and ageing • Responding to spatial challenges from an ageing population (e.g. housing, transport and leisure needs) • Spatial challenges arising from changing household structure (increasing number of (smaller) households)

7. Key spatial challenges from demographic change Migration • Spatial challenges from retirement migration and other impacts in coastal zones • Spatial challenges in peripheral and old-industrial areas affected by depopulation • Polarisation effect of major global cities on migration movements • Economic and social integration of international migrants (housing and services needs)

8. Scope for transnational cooperation? • No specific agenda for action on demography and spatial development for the North Sea transnational area: • NSR theme for challenges from depopulation and polarisation? • International migration etc. more appropriately considered at EU level • Boundary of NSR and linkages with other regions • But: demographic change important theme in new transnational territorial cooperation programmes (NWE, NSR) Source: ESPON 1.1.4

9. Scope for transnational cooperation? • Scope for exchange of experience and best practice • Addressing sectoral policy fragmentation and improving coordination of the spatial impacts of demographic change • Understanding the impact of previous planning policies on demographic change and polarisation tendencies • Addressing imbalances in housing demand and supply • Developing new planning approaches / tools / adaptation strategies for depopulation • Enhancing tools for long-range planning, incl. improved data monitoring and analysis • Integration of immigrants and the impact of planning policies on the destinations and integration of immigrants • The role of environmental and spatial development factors in attracting and retaining highly qualified labour • Addressing retirement migration and second homes

10. Concluding remarks • The definition of transnational cooperation areas for the consideration of major spatial development impacts • Demographic issues as crucial component of housing, transport, tourism etc. • The multi-disciplinary nature of demographic change, and the need for better cross-sectoral coordination • Different timescales for the political electorate and the medium- to long-term effects of demographic change • Need for more and coordinated analysis into the spatial development effects from demographic change • Spatial planning not pro-active intervention in demographic change; emphasis is on anticipating and responding to effects

11. Thank you for your attention. Email: S.Duhr@fm.ru.nl