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FAA Aviation Forecasts Fiscal Years 2005-2016

FAA Aviation Forecasts Fiscal Years 2005-2016. Presented at the 30 th Annual FAA Aviation Forecast Conference By Robert L. Bowles Manager, Statistics and Forecasts, FAA March 17, 2005. : : Domestic Passengers Up 6.7% in 2004. 2000 Passenger Level. Down 2.2 % from 2000.

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FAA Aviation Forecasts Fiscal Years 2005-2016

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  1. FAA Aviation Forecasts Fiscal Years 2005-2016 Presented at the 30th Annual FAA Aviation Forecast Conference By Robert L. Bowles Manager, Statistics and Forecasts, FAA March 17, 2005

  2. : : Domestic Passengers Up 6.7% in 2004 2000 Passenger Level Down 2.2 % from 2000

  3. : : International Passengers Up 11.7% in 2004 Down 4.7 % from 2000 2000 Passenger Level

  4. : : Domestic Yield Down 18.3% Since 2000 2000 Yield Level

  5. : : Low Cost & Regional Carriers Increase Market Share

  6. : : Air Cargo Revenue Ton Miles Up Almost 5% in 2004 2000 RTM Level

  7. : : Commercial Air Carriers Have Lost $25 Billion Since 2000

  8. : : General Aviation Hours Flown Have Bottomed Out 2000 Hours Flown Level Down 9 % from 2000

  9. : : FAA/Contract Tower Instrument Operations Up 2% in 2004 Down 7.2 % From 2000 2000 Instrument Operations Level

  10. LGA PHL SLC DEN DCA MSP CLT LAS DTW • ORD MEM • MDW ATL  SAN CVG FLL IAH : : Recovery In Activity Not Uniform Among All Airports In 2004 Commercial Operations at 17 of 35 Major U.S.Airports Already At 2000 Levels

  11. : :U.S. Economy Grows An Average Of 3.2% Annually

  12. : :World Economy Grows An Average Of 3.2% Annually $50,825 $38,338 $37,142 $35,981 $34,821

  13. : :Energy Prices Spike in 2005 Then Fall Over Next 3 Years All Signs Point to Continued Recovery

  14. : : Domestic Real Yield Falls An Average Of 1.7% Annually

  15. : : Domestic Passengers Return to Pre 9/11 Levels in 2005

  16. : : International Passengers Return to Pre 9/11 Levels in 2005

  17. : : Every World Travel Region Returns to 2000 Levels by 2006 • Latin America -- 2004 • Pacific -- 2005 • Canadian Transborder -- 2005 • Atlantic -- 2006

  18. : : Total Passengers Exceed One Billion In 2015

  19. : : By 2016 Low Cost and Regional Carrier Domestic Share ≈ 55% Passenger Market Share Low Cost & Regionals/ Commuters Low Cost & Regionals/ Commuters Large Network Carriers Large Network Carriers 43% ≈ 55% 2004 2016

  20. : : Regional Jet Fleet Grows 38% Over Next Three Years

  21. : : Low Cost Carriers Drive Mainline Carrier Fleet Growth

  22. : : Cargo Revenue Ton Miles Increase 82% By 2016

  23. : : General Aviation Hours Flown Up 20% By 2016

  24. : : By 2016 Instrument Operations Up 29% At FAA/Contract Towers

  25. LGA JFK  EWR PHL SLC DEN  BWI DCA IAD MSP CLT LAS DTW • ORD MEM • MDW  PHX ATL  SAN CVG  MCO  HNL TPA FLL IAH : :Eight Additional Airports Exceed 2000 Levels by 2006 Commercial Operations at 25 Large U.S.Airports Will Exceed 2000 Levels By 2006

  26. : : Implications For The FAA • Congestion On Rise As Demand Returns • Several Airports Already Experiencing Delays • Change in Aircraft Mix Makes Future Workload More Complex • Rapid Growth in RJs • Strong Growth in GA Business Jets • Falling Yields Pose Risk To Matching FAA Funding Needs With Demand For FAA Services

  27. : : Forecast Risks • Deteriorating Financial Condition Of Legacy Carriers • Sustained Higher Fuel Prices • Increasing Delays At U.S. Airports

  28. : : Forecast Summary • Recovery of Traffic Continues In 2005 And Beyond • Commercial Carrier and Domestic Passengers Return To Pre 9/11 Levels • Commercial Carrier Passengers Exceed One Billion in 2015 • Low Cost Carriers Increase Share => Falling Fares • Rising Demand For FAA Services • Downside Risks Are Significant

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