Oslo, November 2010

1. RagnhildNordås, PRIO and Notre Dame Dara K. Cohen, University of Minnesota SVACSexual Violence in Armed Conflict Data collection, challenges and preliminary findings • Outline • About the project • Motivation • Data collection • Preliminary results • Lessons and future work Oslo, November 2010

2. SVAC - Motivation and backdrop • “Rape is one of the greatest peace and security challenges of our time.” UN secretary-general's special representative on sexual violence in conflict, Margot Wallstrom • Current data are mostly case studies, focused on the same cases of the worst sexual violence (Bosnia and Rwanda) • A better research design would analyze a universe of all cases, including where sexual violence occurred and where it did not To devise an effective prevention strategy, more systematic knowledge is needed

3. Project goal • Forecasting for prevention • Data needs • A comprehensive dataset on sexual violence in armed conflict 1989-2009 by all major actor types (state and non-state) • First step: Pilot project on conflicts in Africa, 2000-2009 • Pilot project funding: Grant from the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (Sept-Dec 2010) • Second step: Additional years and geographic regions • Research suggests that the problem is worldwide, not only Africa (Cohen 2010) • Pending additional funding • Long-term goal • To guide policymakers towards more effective measures against sexual violence in armed conflict and post-conflict situations

4. SVAC project staff • Head researchers Inger SkjelsbækDara Kay Cohen Ragnhild Nordås Scott Gates Håvard Strand (Minnesota) • Consultativegroup Elisabeth Wood (Yale) Mia Bloom (Penn State) Chris Butler (New Mexico) Amelia Green (Yale)

5. UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict Dataset v4-2009 2 3 1 Pilot: Region 1, conflictsactive in 2000-2009

6. SVAC data: What is sexualviolence and ”armedconflict?” • SVAC will use the International Criminal Court (ICC) definition: • includes rape, sexual mutilation, sexual slavery, enforced prostitution, forced pregnancy, and enforced sterilization • importantly, definition does not exclude the existence of female perpetrators and male victims of sexual violence • SVAC uses the UCDP definition (dataset) on Armed Conflict: • Defines conflict as “a contested incompatibility that concerns government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in at least 25 battle-related deaths” • ”war” = 1000 battle-relateddeaths in a calendaryear • Types of conflict: • Intrastate armed conflict • Internationalized internal armed conflict • Interstate conflicts

7. SVAC dataset: Unitofanalysis • Conflict-actor-year • A given conflictactor (state/militiagroup, rebelgroup) • In a given conflict • In a given year • Example: thesexualviolenceperpetrated by the RUF in Sierra Leone in 1995

8. SVAC dataset: Dimensions • Perpetrators: Who commitedtheviolence? (Armedgroup, ethnicity, gender) • Victims: Who werethevictims? (Gender, race, ethnicity, age) • Magnitude: How intense wastheviolence? (Isolatedincidents, widespread) • Location: Wheredidtheviolencehappen? (Part ofthecountry, location) • Timing: Whendidtheviolencehappen? (Early in thewar, during peace talks) • Form: What types ofsexualviolence? (rape, gang rape, forcedmarriage)

9. Main data sources in pilot • Five major data sources • US State Department Human Rights reports (annual) • Amnesty International • Human Rights Watch • International Crisis Group • DCAF, SexualViolence in ArmedConflict

10. Documentation and Reliability • Conflictmanuscripts • Backgroundinformation in documentwithsearchable headings • Coding decisions are double-checked for consistency • detect any misunderstandings and/or systematic biases • calculate intercoder reliability scores

11. Pilot sample • 28 armed conflicts total that are active in Africa in 2000-2009 • These involve 120 conflict actors • Initial phase of pilot are 8 high priority conflicts

12. Preliminary findings from first 8 countries • There is variation in perpetration of sexual violence both across and within these conflicts • Magnitude by actor group type • Most state actors are perpetrators • 25% of pro-government militias are perpetrators • Less than 50% of rebel groups are perpetrators • Variation over time • Both state and non-state perpetrators refrained from sexual violence in at least some years • Policy implication: Sexual violence is not a constant, inevitable consequence of wartime

13. Preliminary findings: Post-conflict violence • Data show sexual violence by armed groups continues after conflict • 25% of conflict actors engaged in some sexual violence post-conflict • Only focusing on the period of conflict misses the full scale of conflict-related sexual violence • Implications for policy: Peacekeeper presence should continue even after deaths have stopped; peace processes should focus also on ceasing non-lethal violence • Suggests that lethal violence is not perfectly correlated with sexual violence • Implications for research: Need to collect separate data and to develop separate theories on sexual violence

14. Lessons: Measuring SV--Challenges/opportunities • Policy memo on challenges and opportunities for cross-national data collection on SVAC (February 2011) • What are the challenges? • Biases in sources • What is sexual violence? • Measuring magnitude • Under-reporting • Over-reporting • What counts? • Beyond magnitude • Who are the perpetrators/victims • Locations of violations • Timing

15. Data/methods recommendations • Importance of a clear, standard definition • Establishing a baseline measure from pre-conflict • Data on both perpetrators/victims • Time-variant data • Location data • Data triangulation – verification from several sources • More comprehensive search on selected cases • Comprehensive and narrow search to be compared for content

16. Conclusions • Will be most comprehensive data collection • Funding • Policy briefs (2011) svac@prio.no