WMO XV Commission for Agricultural Meteorology Belo Horizonte, Brazil 15-21 July 2010

1. WMO XV Commission for Agricultural Meteorology Belo Horizonte, Brazil 15-21 July 2010 FAO data, tools & methods for climate impact assessment at national level Michele Bernardi Climate, Energy and Tenure Division www.fao.org/nr/climpag/

2. Climate Impact Assessment Tools • To assess weather impact on agricultural production at local, sub-national, national, and regional level • To use weather and climate forecasts in farm-level decision-making • To provide global and regional impact assessments on agriculture based on climate change scenarios

3. www.fao.org/nr/climpag/

4. Food security information chain

5. FAO approach in crop yield forecasting

6. FAOCLIM-NET

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8. MODIS-Terra 250m (Zambia-Malawi) NDVI-GAC 8km SPOT-4 VEGETATION 1km

9. National crop statistics Sub-national crop statistics

10. Nigeria Harmonized World Soil Database (HWSD)

11. Cropping areas Length of cropping season Crop Calendar

12. Field reports Planting opportunities

13. FAO standard methodology

14. Methods for Climate Change impact assessment on agriculture

15. CC Impact Assessment on Agriculture: an example from Morocco 1. Climate Projections 2. Physical impacts on main crops and rangelands - livestock activities 3. Impacts on farming systems 4. Economic impacts 5. Policy adaptation options • Government of Morocco / World Bank / FAO • A number of crops, barley, wheat, vegetables, etc • Barley yield projection for 2030 vs current yield • A need for country to sub-country level studies of CC impact assessment ftp://ext-ftp.fao.org/SD/Reserved/Agromet/WB_FAO_morocco_CC_yield_impact/report/WB_Morocco_20091007.pdf Kingdom of Morocco Climate Change and Agriculture: Impacts and Policy Implications

16. CC Impact Assessment on Agriculture: an example from Morocco Current climate from meteorological stations Fine-gridded weather variables W1 W2 … Wn Yield estimation model Current yield Downscaled and fine-gridded climate variables W1 W2 … Wn Raw future yield Future climate by large grid-cells from scenarios + CO2 + Technology + Adaptation Future yield

17. CC Impact Assessment on Agriculture: an example from Morocco Downscaling

18. CC Impact Assessment on Agriculture: an example from Morocco Rainfall scenario over winter cereals’ cycle in “2027” (mm/dekad)‏ Rainfed soft wheat

19. CC Impact Assessment on Agriculture: an example from Morocco Percent change in average yield (2030, A2 scenario)

20. FAO Climate Change impact assessment toolbox

21. Climate Change impact assessment toolbox

22. Climate Change impact assessment toolbox Weather observations Daily Stations GCM outputs Daily Low resolution grid Spatialization Downscaling Hydro Model Water Availability Daily Watershed Weather observations Daily High resolution grid Downscaled scenarios Daily High resolution grid Water Availability Daily Watershed Crop Model +Soil +CO2 Crop Model +Soil +CO2 Simulated Yields Growing season High resolution grid Simulated Yields Growing season High resolution grid Hydro Model Yield stats Growing season Administrative Units Yield calibration functions Administrative units Calibrated Yields Growing season Administrative units Technological Trend Detrending Regression Projected Yields Growing season Administrative units CGE Model Current economy Administrative units/country Economic Impact Yearly Administrative units/country Computable general equilibrium (CGE) model

23. CLIMATE CO2 Rain WP Es Ta ETo T(oC) Runoff Leaf expansion gs Canopy Cover • Wheat • Maize • Rice • Sugarbeet • Soybean • Cotton • Potato • Quinoa Phenology Biomass Yield HI Senescence • Forage crops (Alfalfa) • Millet • Barley • Chickpea • Sorghum • Sunflower • Sugarcane • Tomato • Teff • Bambara Groundnut Rooting depth Soil water (& salt)balance Infiltration deep percolation capillary rise Redistribution Uptake

24. Other tools

26. ADDAPIX Pixel-by-pixel clustering

28. FAO Rain Fall Estimate Infrared meteosat data ~ 3 km resolution ECMWF rainfall data ~ 25 km resolution MPE (Eumetsat) Infrared and Microwave Estimation 3km resolution Humidity and precipitable water profiles from ECMWF Interpolation GOES Index Daily Rainfall field 3 km resolution Daily Rainfall field 3 km resolution Daily Rainfall field 3 km resolution Weighted linear combination Validated Rainfall data GTS (gauges) Rainfall data Weights determination Preliminary Combined Rainfall field 3 km resolution Local Calibration Final Merged Rainfall field 3 km resolution

29. FAO Rain Fall Estimate Africa Sudan

30. National Rainfall Index (NRI)a tool for cross-sectoral impact analyses

31. Global water stress maps

32. Conversion of absolute magnitude to impact intensity from to a knowledge base

35. Capacity building at national level

36. Data/Software distribution and support services GLCN Activities • Data • Software • Services Technical assistance Spatial analysis Mapping Training Resource kit

37. Ad-hoc training on climate impact tools