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Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Strategies at NASA Ames Research Center

This report outlines global climate change projections, local climate change observations, the 1998 flood at NASA ARC, anticipated impacts of climate change, and suggested adaptation strategies.

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Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Strategies at NASA Ames Research Center

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  1. Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Strategies at NASA Ames Research Center Spring 2010 Undergraduate Student Research Program Nicole Burroughs, UNC - Charlotte Dr. Laura Iraci, Mentor

  2. Outline • Global Climate Change Projections • Local Climate Change Observations • 1998 Flood at NASA ARC • Anticipated Impacts of Climate Change • Suggested Adaptation Strategies

  3. Global Climate Predictions • Global Mean Sea Level Rise • SRES A1B = 2.1 – 6.0 mm / yr • SRES B1 = 1.5 – 3.9 mm / yr • SRES A2 = 3.0 – 8.5 mm / yr • Global Annual Temperature Increase • SRES A1B = 1.7 – 4.4 °C • SRES B1 = 1.1 -2.9 °C • SRES A2 = 2.0 -5.4 °C • Precipitation Pattern Changes • Varies based on location • Western US • More winter and less summer precipitation • Overall drying through out the year

  4. Local spikes in sea level are a major concern Local Sea level has trended with global levels Global Sea Level Rise Global and Local Sea Level Rise SRES A1B Projection Source: IPCC Source: IPCC and NOAA

  5. Moffett Field Temperature Record [Data Gap] • Mean air temperature increased 0.58°C per decade • Consistent with global trends of temperature increases Source: NOAA / NCDC

  6. Moffett Field Precipitation Record [Data Gap] [Data Gap] • High seasonal variability in precipitation totals, consistent with a Mediterranean climate • Large variability in precipitation totals projected during the 21st century Source: NOAA / NCDC

  7. NASA Ames Research Center has been severely impacted by weather systems before Previous experiences give an idea of what to expect due to climate change Intense Events At NASA Ames • February 2-9, 1998 Flooding Image Source: NOAA / NCDC Technical Report no. 98-02

  8. Tidal Conditions During Flood • Unusually high neap tide • Sea Level elevation influenced by El Nino and met conditions Source: NOAA

  9. Meteorological Effect on Tides • Short term wind fluctuations do not impact sea elevation normally. • Winter storms have more effect due to stronger winds. • Winds cause the water to set-up along the coast. • AKA storm surge • -1 hPa (SLP) = +1 cm (SL) • On Feb 2, 1998 • SLP of 1008 hPa • On Feb 3, 1998 • SLP of 990 hPa • Increase of local sea level by approximately 18 cm Source: NOAA / NCDC

  10. Precipitation During Flood 6 hr rates spiked on Feb 3rd at nearly 40mm/ 6 hrs 7 of 8 previous days had measurable rainfall totals • Over 88 mm of rainfall on February 3, 1998 • Corresponds with largest spike in 6-hr precipitation rates Source: NOAA / NCDC

  11. Season Weather Rankings • January • 5thwarmest January on record • Highest number of days with rain for Januarys on record with 20 days • Winter (Dec, Jan, & Feb) • Highest number of days with rain for winters on record with 48 days • 2nd highest total precipitation for winters on record Source: NOAA / NCDC

  12. Total Precipitation Vs. Rainfall Days 1977/78 1997/98 1992/93 1972/73 • Precipitation totals and frequency of rainfall days were factors in the February 1998 Flood • Other winters to examine in the future include 1972/73, 1977/78, and 1992/93 Source: NOAA / NCDC

  13. February 1998 Flood: Impacts

  14. February 1998 Flood: Response • Sandbagging • Over 400 people involved • 15,000 sandbags required • Increasing pump capacity • From 1.2 million gallons / hour • To nearly 3 million gallons / hour

  15. February 1998 Flood: Improvements • Improved Drainage • Increased pump capacity • Dredged channels protecting NASA ARC • Storm water retention and evaporation ponds increased • Severe Weather Procedure Improvements • Preparing pumps and sandbags prior to storms • Monitoring of water pump rate during storms

  16. Increasing Frequency of Floods due to SLR Peak High Tide Level (m) (relative to MLLW) 30 cm SLR by about 2040 Source: Lawrence Berkeley National Lab (Miller, 1998)

  17. Anticipated Impacts of Climate Change 500-year flood-plain 40 cm SLR 2050 140 cm SLR 2100 By 2100 SLR will have nearly as much of an impact as a 500-year flood event Source: BCDC and Army Corps of Engineers

  18. Anticipated Impacts of Climate Change • Drainage Issues • Loss of current drainage holding ponds (wetlands and salt marshes) • Increased difficulty and cost to pump water to the bay due to increased sea level • Groundwater Flow Changes • Contaminated ground water plumes shift and spread • More water intrusion into basements • Other • Increased occurrence of drought • Power/ water availability and cost increases • Loss of wildlife habitat

  19. Suggested Adaptation Strategies • Shoreline protections • Identification of structures vulnerable to inundation or flooding and those affected by the 1998 flood • Storm water runoff and drainage studies • Groundwater flow studies • Studies into San Francisco Bay hydrodynamics • Increase flood management • Reassess the risk posed by SLR at regular intervals • Collect and archive relevant data • Topographic data • Moffett Field Tide Gauge

  20. Probable Financial Implications • Climate Change will increase the likelihood of NASA ARC being impacted by flooding • SLR expected by 2100 would impact nearly as much as a 500-year flood without sea level rise • 364,665,994 is the current replacement value of at risk buildings • $66,965,480 of building contents at risk • Investment in adaptation strategies could mitigate some of that expense and lost time • 40 cm SLR by 2050 • Flood of this magnitude shifts to about once every 10 years! Assumethe1998floodwasan100-yearevent

  21. Suggested Future Work • Collection and analysis of satellite sea level measurements of San Francisco Bay • Increase use of climate model downscaling • Evaluation of snow water equivalent / snow pack changes to identify power/ water availability changes • Examine other winter precipitation events such as 1972/1973, 1977/78 and 1992/93 • Continued with other agencies such as the Army Corps of Engineers in adapting to climate change

  22. Acknowledgements • Assistance Throughout Research • Laura Iraci • Emma Yates • Max Loewenstein • Funding and Support • NASA’s Undergraduate Student Research Program • Maria Lopez • Contributors • Ann Clarke • Don Chuck • T. Mark Hightower • Cristina Milesi • Phil Snyder • John West • Ken Steinitz

  23. Mean sea level increased 2.01 mm / year Strong El Niños cause local sea level spikes San Francisco Bay Tide Gauge Record Source: NOAA

  24. El Niño/ Southern Oscillation’s (ENSO) Impact • Type 1 El Niño • 6 of 8 Type 1 El Niños had higher than normal precipitation • Average 37% more precipitation than mean monthly totals. • El Niño associated with wetter winters in CA. • Flooding is not limited to El Niño years. • Jan and Mar 1995 • Winter of 1996/97

  25. Type 1 El Nino

  26. Flood Parameters Comparison

  27. Flood Parameters Comparison

  28. Flood Parameters Comparison

  29. Winter Precipitation Totals [Data Gap]

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