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Population Growth and Its Implications for Development

Population Growth and Its Implications for Development. Carl Haub Senior Demographer Population Reference Bureau Washington, DC. Population growth and its implications for ACP rural development CTA, Brussels, 27 January 2010. Contemporary World Population Issues.

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Population Growth and Its Implications for Development

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  1. Population Growth and Its Implications for Development Carl Haub Senior Demographer Population Reference Bureau Washington, DC Population growth and its implications for ACP rural development CTA, Brussels, 27 January 2010 POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU | www.prb.org

  2. Contemporary World Population Issues • All population growth is now in the poorest countries and areas. • Very young age structures in developing countries guarantee this. • The situation is most acute in sub-Saharan Africa. • As essential as population projections are, their accuracy must be continuously monitored. • Extreme aging will place enormous stress upon many industrialized countries’ economies and societies. • Low fertility in developed countries presents South-North migration opportunities. • Development is often impeded by a lack of reproductive rights. • In many ways, population change in the U.S. is not very different from that of Europe.

  3. Global Population Growth Is Almost Entirely Concentratedin the World's Poorer Countries Billions Global Population: 1900 = 1.6 Billion 2000 = 6.1 Billion 2011 = 7 Billion World Population (in Billions): 1950-2050 Developing Countries Developed Countries United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, The 2008 Revision.

  4. The 20th Century Population Explosion Was a Result of the Mortality “Revolution” Life Expectancy at Birth (years) Source: Costa Rica 1927 and 1950 - CICRED, others UN2006; Sri Lanka: ESCAP Country Monograph up to not incl. 1950, then UN2006 US: up to 1970 Vital Statistics books online; After 1970 NVSR 56:6 page 26

  5. Fewer and Fewer Young People and Future Aging Developed Countries by Age and Sex, 2009 Age Females Males Millions United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, The 2008 Revision, medium variant

  6. Large Numbers of Young People and Large Population Growth Developing Countries by Age and Sex, 2009 Age Females Males Millions United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, The 2008 Revision, medium variant

  7. Population of the World’s Regions, 2009 and 2050 Projected Millions Population Reference Bureau, 2009 World Population Data Sheet

  8. The Total Fertility Rate (TFR)Indice synthétique de fécondité (ISF) The TFR is the average number of children a woman would bear in her lifetime if the birth rate of a particular year were to remain constant.

  9. How Are Projections Made? • The United Nations assumes that birth rates will decline so that all developing countries will eventually average a European-like 1.85 children per woman. • That assumption is entirely dependent upon the additional assumption that the use of family planning will rise to the same level as that in Europe and North America, which the UN is very careful to point out.

  10. The “Demographic Divide” The Example of Nigeria and Japan NigeriaJapan Population 2009 (millions) 153 128 Population 2050 (millions) 285 95 Lifetime Births per Woman 5.7 1.4 Annual Number of Births 6,200,000 1,100,000 Percent of Population Below Age 15 45 13 Percent of Population Age 65+ 3 23 Life Expectancy at Birth 47 83 Infant Deaths per 1,000 Births 75 2.6 Annual Number of Infant Deaths 465,000 2,900 Percent of Adults with HIV/AIDS 3.1 - 2009 World Population Data Sheet

  11. Fertility Decline in Bangladesh and the United States, 1800 - 2006 Two Very Different Histories Lifetime children per woman Population Reference Bureau, NCHS, DHS surveys

  12. United Nations, World Population Prospects, the 2009 Revision and 2009 World Population Data Sheet

  13. Sample Registration System

  14. Lifetime children per woman Demographic and Health Surveys and Statistics South Africa

  15. Use of Modern Contraception (Clinic and Supply Methods), mid-1990s and Most Recent % of Married women, ages 15-49 TFRs= 3.2/2.4 4.1/3.3 6.1/6.2 4.8/4.0 6.9/6.7 6.1/5.2 5.2/4.0 Demographic and Health Surveys

  16. “Unmet Need” for Family Planning, Percent of Married/in Union Women TFR= 2.4 3.3 6.2 4.0 6.7 5.2 4.0 Demographic and Health Surveys

  17. Demographic and Health Survey * Question asked of husbands

  18. HIV Prevalence Before and After Nationally-representative Surveys Were Taken, Selected sub-Saharan African Countries, 2003-2006 Percent of adult population UNAIDS and Demographic and Health Surveys

  19. Future World Population Growth Will Be in Places Defined by Countries as “Urban” While Rural Places Decline Billions World Population (in Billions): 1950-2050 Urban Rural United Nations Population Division, World Urbanization Prospects, The 2007 Revision.

  20. What Are Urban Places? • Argentina Populated centers with 2,000 or more • Canada Places of 1,000 or more* • China Cities designated by the State Council and other places with density of 1,500 or more per sq. km.* • India Specified towns with governments and places with 5,000 or more and at least three-fourths of the male labor force not in agriculture* • Japan Cities (shi) with 50,000 or more* • Maldives Malé, the capital • Mexico Localities of 2,500 or more • Niger Capital city and department and district capitals • New Zealand Cities, towns, etc. with 1,000 or more • Norway Localities of 200 or more • Peru Populated centers with 100 or more dwellings • Senegal Agglomerations of 10,000 or more • United States Places of 2,500 or more, urbanized areas of 50,000 or more* *There are some additional requirements regarding population size, population density and specified urban characteristics

  21. Distribution of Population by Size, of Village, Town, or City, India, 2001 2001 Census of India

  22. The “Demographic Divide” in Three States of India Uttar PradeshBiharKerala Population 2001 (millions) 166 83 32 Population 2010 200 99 34 Literacy Male/Female (%) 69/42 60/33 94/88 Lifetime Births per Woman 2007 3.9 3.9 1.7 Modern Contraceptive Prev. ’05-06 29 29 58 Traditional Contra. Prev. ’05-06 14 5 11 Urban Population (%) 21 11 26 Percent of Population < Age 15 41 42 26 Households with Electricity (%) 32 10 70 Households in Permanent-type House 53 41 68 Households with Television 25 9 39 Households with Car, Jeep, or Van 2.2 0.9 4.0 Households with Two-wheeler 3.6 10.4 10.0 Households in One-room House 30 43 11 Percent of Children <3 Underweight 47 58 29 2001 Census of India, National Family Health Survey-3, Sample Registration System, PRB projections

  23. Households by Annual Income Groups, India, 2001-2002 National Council of Applied Economic Research, Delhi, 2005

  24. Annual Net Immigration, 1990 - 2009, Selected Countries Thousands National Statistical Offices

  25. United Nations, International Migrant Stock, the 2008 Revision

  26. United Nations, International Migrant Stock, the 2008 Revision

  27. World Bank, Migration Working Group

  28. World Bank, Migration Working Group

  29. Total Fertility Rates, Selected EU 15 Countries and the U.S., 1960 - 2008 Children per woman Council of Europe, Recent demographic developments in Europe and national statistics websites

  30. Total Fertility Rates, Selected New EU Countries, 1960 - 2008 Children per woman Council of Europe, Recent demographic developments in Europe and national statistics websites

  31. Population of Japan by Age and Sex, 1 December, 2009 Age Females Males Millions Japan Statistics Bureau

  32. Population of Russia by Age and Sex, 1 January, 2009 Age Females Males Millions State Statistical Bureau (GOSKOMSTAT)

  33. Average “Personal Ideal“ Number of Children, 2001 and 2006, Females Ages 15 - 24 Eurobarometers, 56.2 and 65.1

  34. Percentage of Women, Ages 18-34 Giving “None” or “One” as Their Ideal Number of Children, Selected Countries of Europe. 2001 Eurobarometer, 56.2

  35. U.S. White non-Hispanic Population by Age and Sex, 2006

  36. U.S. Hispanic Population by Age and Sex, 2006 Age Males Females Percent U.S. Census Bureau

  37. U.S. National Center for Health Statistics and U.K. Office of National Statistics

  38. Components of U.S. Population Growth by Ethnic Group, 2007 - 2008 Millions U.S Census Bureau

  39. The Association Between Poverty and Fertility, 2007 % Living below $2 per day Average number of children per woman Population Reference Bureau, Population and Economic Development Linkages 2007

  40. The Association Between Population Growth Rate and GDP Growth Annual population growth rate, 1975 - 2004 (%) Average annual GDP per capita growth rate, 1975 - 2004 (%) Population Reference Bureau, Population and Economic Development Linkages 2007

  41. Thank You! carlh@prb.org

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