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Biofuels Development Status and Potentials in Major Countries

Biofuels Development Status and Potentials in Major Countries. Michael Wang Center for Transportation Research Argonne National Laboratory Oct. 10 , 2006. A Complete, Robust Way Of Evaluating A Fuel’s Effects Is To Compare the Fuel With Those To Be Displaced. 0.65. 0.60. ?. 0.55. 0.50.

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Biofuels Development Status and Potentials in Major Countries

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  1. Biofuels Development Status and Potentials in Major Countries Michael Wang Center for Transportation Research Argonne National Laboratory Oct. 10, 2006

  2. A Complete, Robust Way Of Evaluating A Fuel’s Effects Is To Compare the Fuel With Those To Be Displaced

  3. 0.65 0.60 ? 0.55 0.50 Precision farming, etc.? Bushels/lb. Fertilizer 0.45 0.40 0.35 0.30 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Accurate Ethanol Energy Analysis Must Account for Increased Productivity in Farming Over Time U.S. Corn Output Per Pound of Fertilizer Has Risen by 70% in The Past 35 Years Based on historical USDA data; results are 3-year moving averages

  4. Improved Technology Has Reduced Energy Use and Operating Costs in Corn Ethanol Plants From Argonne’s discussions with ethanol plant designers, USDA data, and other reported data

  5. The Type of Energy, As Well As the Amount of Energy, Is important in Addressing Energy Effects of Ethanol Btu required for 1 Btu available at fuel pump Fossil Btu = 1.23 Energy in the Fuel Petroleum Btu = 1.1 Fossil Btu = 0.74 Fossil Btu < 0.1 Petroleum Btu = 0.1 Petroleum Btu = 0.1

  6. Wang GREET w/Pimentel Assumptions Most Recent Studies Show Positive Net Energy Balance for Corn Ethanol Energy balance here is defined as Btu content a gallon of ethanol minus fossil energy used to produce a gallon of ethanol

  7. Diesel Fuel NG Diesel Fuel Electricity Electricity NG NG Uranium Coal Petroleum Residual Oil Uranium Ore Recovery Petroleum Recovery Diesel Fuel NG NG Recovery LPG, NGLs Coal Mining Electricity Refinery Gas NG NG NG Processing Petroleum Transportation Uranium Ore Transportation Coal Electricity Electricity Diesel Fuel Coal Transportation Residual Oil Other Petroleum Products Petroleum Refinery Diesel Fuel NG NG Transmission Uranium Enrichment NG Electricity Electricity Residual Oil Transportation Uranium Fuel Transportation Electricity Generation U.S. Electricity Generation: 2.34 mm Btu Fossil Energy Input Electricity Transmission and Distribution (8% loss) 1 mm Btu of Electricity at Wall Outlets Though Electricity Requires a Large Amount of Fossil Energy Input, There Is No Substitute

  8. Fossil Energy Ratio (FER) = energy in fuel/fossil energy input 10.31 Increase inEnergy Quality Energy in Different Fuels Can Have Very Different Qualities

  9. The Role of Biofuels Is Affected by Land Availability and Oil Use in Individual Countries

  10. Intermediate Products Can Be Produced from Various Feedstocks via Various Technologies

  11. Bio-Fuels Can Be Produced from Intermediate Products with Various Technologies

  12. Feedstocks for Biofuel Production Vary Among Countries • Grain starch to ethanol • Corn in U.S., China, Canada • Wheat in Europe, Australia, and Canada • Sugar crops to ethanol • Sugarcane in Brazil, India, and Thailand • Sugar beets in Europe • Cellulosic biomass to ethanol • Managed biomass such as trees and grass • Crop residues such as corn stover, wheat straw, rice straw, sugarcane bagasse • Forest wastes • Municipal solid waste • Oilseed crops to biodiesel • Soybeans in U.S. • Rapeseeds in Europe • Palm oil and other tropical oilseed crops in tropical countries • Waste cooking oil • Animal fats

  13. Liquid Biofuels Can Be Used in Vehicles at Low- or High-Level Blends • Low-level blends of ethanol/gasoline can be used in gasoline vehicles without vehicle modifications • E5 in Canada and Australia • E3 in Japan • E6-E10 in U.S. • E10 in China and Thailand • E25 in Brazil • Low-level and high-level blends of biodiesel/diesel can be used in diesel vehicles without vehicle modifications • B2-B20 in different countries • B100 could be used • Flexible-fuel vehicles (FFVs) for E0-E85 require vehicle modifications

  14. U.S. Corn Ethanol: No.1 Ethanol Consumption Country with 4.2 billion gallons in 2005

  15. U.S. Fuel Ethanol Production Has Experienced Large Increases, and the Trend Will Continue 2005 Energy Bill requirement Actual Use Source: Renewable Fuels Association

  16. A Large Number of E85 FFVs Are in U.S. Fleet • Obtain fuel economy credits since 1993 • >5 million cars and trucks in use in 2005 • But they are powered virtually with gasoline

  17. General Motors Corporation’s E85 FFV Vehicle Production for U.S. Forecast Production Approx. 1,500,000 E85 FFV Trucks produced through 2005 MY

  18. Brazilian Sugarcane Ethanol: No.2 Ethanol Consumption Country with ~4 Billion Gallons in 2005

  19. Humid equatorial Dry winter/humid summer tropical Semi-arid tropical Humid coastal Humid subtropical Brazil Is the Largest Sugarcane Producing Country

  20. Sugar Production Cost Estimated Cost (US$/Ton in Dec/00) Sugar Cane 100 Production (Mt) 2002 22,7 5,4 2,6 19,0 2,3 6,6 5,1 7,3 10,3 1,5 1,5 0,9 Production costs in Brazil reached 100 US$/ton in 2005 From Rainach (2006) Brazil Has the Lowest Production Cost for Sugar

  21. STRONG WEAK Brazil’s Low Sugar Production Cost Is Due to a Combination of Factors Australia Brazil Cuba India cost (US$/Ton) 204 100 283 248 WATER LIGHT - TEMPERATURE USABLE LAND LABOR COST SCALE OF PRODUCTION GENETICS AGRICULTURAL TECHNOLOGY From Rainach (2006)

  22. Brazil Now Uses About 4 Billion Gallons of Sugarcane Ethanol A Year

  23. l/ha Yield of EtOH/Ha Has Increased Three Times in the Last 25 Years to 6,000 L/Ha (1,585 gal/Ha) From Rainach (2006)

  24. Ethanol Cost Has Been Reduced Greatly; It Is Now Lower Than That of Gasoline Goldenberg, 2005

  25. In Brazil, 70% of All New Cars Sold Now Are FFVs 100% 3% 26% 80% 2% 60% 40% 69% 20% 0% jan/03 abr/03 jul/03 out/03 jan/04 abr/04 jul/04 out/04 jan/05 abr/05 jul/05 out/05 Flex (Ethanol or gasoline) Ethanol (Pure) Gasoline Diesel

  26. Chinese Corn Ethanol: No.3 Ethanol Consumption Country with ~340 Million Gallons in 2005

  27. Four Fuel Ethanol Plants in China Produce 340 Million Gallons of EtOH a Year from Grains

  28. Supply of Grain-Based Ethanol in the U.S. and China May Be Limited

  29. U.S. Biodiesel Production

  30. U.S. Biodiesel Production Has Increased Dramatically and Will Continue to Do So

  31. U.S. Biodiesel Plant Location

  32. Incentives and Policies Have Played a Major Role in Biofuel Use • U.S. • $0.51/gallon incentive for ethanol • $1.00/gallon incentive for biodiesel • The 2005 Energy Policy Act establishes renewable fuel standards • Brazil • In early years, government had financial incentives • But sugarcane ethanol is now self-sustaining economically • China • Grain ethanol producers receive RMB 1,200/tonne of ethanol

  33. Potential Adverse Effects of Large-Scale Biofuel Production • Land availability in individual countries • Food vs. fuel debate • Potential soil effects: erosion, carbon depletion, etc. • Water pollution by nitrate from intensive farming • Water resource requirements • Ecological effects of land cultivation for biofuel production

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