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QPF verification of LAMI

QPF verification of LAMI. F. Grazzini, M. S. Tesini, P. Mezzasalma. Forecasting Section ARPA-ServizioIdroMeteorologico Emilia-Romagna fgrazzini@arpa.emr.it. Outline. Box verification (Tesini) Weather dependent verification (Mezzasalma). Box verification (0.4°x0.4°) over N-Italy.

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QPF verification of LAMI

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  1. QPF verification of LAMI F. Grazzini, M. S. Tesini, P. Mezzasalma Forecasting Section ARPA-ServizioIdroMeteorologico Emilia-Romagna fgrazzini@arpa.emr.it

  2. Outline • Box verification (Tesini) • Weather dependent verification (Mezzasalma)

  3. Box verification (0.4°x0.4°) over N-Italy Only grid-points surrounded by obs are considered

  4. LamiN OPE (35 lev, Nudging) vs LamiP (OPE+prognostic precipitation)

  5. MED Soglia 1 Soglia 10 Nobs ~ 700 Nobs ~ 80 Soglia 5 Soglia 20 Nobs ~ 200 Nobs ~ 25

  6. MED Soglia 1 Soglia 10 Nobs ~ 120 Nobs ~ 900 Soglia 5 Soglia 20 Nobs ~ 25 Nobs ~ 300

  7. MED Soglia 1 Soglia 10 Nobs ~ 120 Nobs ~ 12 Soglia 5 Nobs ~ 40

  8. Weather dependent verification over Emilia-Romagna warning areas • Since Autumn 2003 • Average of precipitation over homogeneous areas • Direct feedbacks on the operational interpretation of model output

  9. 8 6 4 7 5 3 2 1 Emilia Romagna’s warning areas River Po Adriatic sea M. Cimone ^ 2173 m Each area contains ~30 LAMI grid points ~3000 Km2

  10. Area average precipitation over warning areas, mm/24h, 2003-2005

  11. Area average precipitation over warning areas, mm/24h, 2003-2005

  12. Area average precipitation over warning areas, mm/24h, 2003-2005

  13. strong events with area average precipitation over a warning area > 20 mm/24h

  14. Precipitation bias with SW wind at 700 hPa > 10 m/s -20% -20% -62% -62%

  15. Precipitation bias with NE wind at 700 hPa > 10 m/s 33% 33% 17% 17% N.B. Only one year of data

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