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Canadian Individual Payout Mortality Table

Canadian Individual Payout Mortality Table. IP-6. A new table. Why? What? So what? What next? How?. Why a new table?. No Canadian table Improvement varies by age CIA Study since 1980’s. What is the table like?. Male & Female Ages 0-115 Insurance mortality to age 55 Flat at high end.

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Canadian Individual Payout Mortality Table

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  1. Canadian Individual Payout Mortality Table IP-6

  2. A new table • Why? • What? • So what? • What next? • How?

  3. Why a new table? • No Canadian table • Improvement varies by age • CIA Study since 1980’s

  4. What is the table like? • Male & Female • Ages 0-115 • Insurance mortality to age 55 • Flat at high end

  5. CIP2005

  6. Male

  7. Male 60-100

  8. Female

  9. Female 60-100

  10. Annuities – Male @ 5% Age 83B 2005 CIP2005 60 12.79 12.89 65 11.36 11.49 70 9.79 9.93 75 8.09 8.22 80 6.37 6.40

  11. Annuities – Female @ 5% Age 83B 2005 CIP2005 60 13.65 13.80 65 12.31 12.48 70 10.79 11.03 75 9.08 9.36 80 7.25 7.48

  12. So what do I do now? • Pricing • Valuation

  13. Pricing Issues • Small but significant difference • Represents industry experience • Lower mortality for higher amounts • Review pricing assumption

  14. Valuation Issues • Not a valuation table • MfAD in base or projection?

  15. PfAD vs MfAD

  16. PfAD vs MfAD

  17. PfAD vs MfAD

  18. PfAD vs MfAD

  19. PfAD vs MfAD

  20. PfAD(t)/PfAD(0)

  21. PfAD(t) / PfAD(0)

  22. PfAD vs MfAD

  23. What next for the table? • Projection scale • Add more data • Some changes in method • Your input

  24. How was the table constructed? • Technical part • Described in paper • Consider fundamentals • Consider turning points

  25. Technical Agenda • Data • Graduation Method • Graduation Parameters • Young and Old • Improvement

  26. Data • 13 years • 80%+ • Reconciled by policy • Single / Joint / Survivor

  27. Exposure

  28. Deaths

  29. Graduation Method • Smooth over fluctuations • Whittaker-Henderson

  30. Graduation Formula Minimize:

  31. Graduation Method • Smooth over fluctuations • Whittaker-Henderson • Same deaths, age

  32. Graduation Method • Smooth over fluctuations • Whittaker-Henderson • Same deaths, age • Limited age range

  33. Graduation Parameters • Order of difference • Weights • h

  34. Playing with h in Excel

  35. Younger Ages • Too little data • Use a proxy • 75% of CA 86-92 Ultimate

  36. Older Ages • Too little data • Traditional approach • Flattened curve • Cubic to flat

  37. Improvement • Data centred on 1995 • Improvement to 2005 • CPP/QPP data • Not IAMS data • Warning: not for general use

  38. References • My paper on CIA web site (soon) • See www.howardfamily.ca/~bob • Or email bob@howardfamily.ca

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