Migration, politics and the city

1. Migration, politics and the city Tony Travers LSE

2. New York and London: the basics Sources: New York - United States Census Bureau State & County QuickFacts; London – Office for National Statistics, Census 2011

3. London’s changing population New Commonwealth/Non White British (%) 1961 3 1971 8 1981 14 1991 16 2001 42 2011 55 Note: 1961, 1971, 1981 and 1991 = New Commonwealth; 2001 and 2011 = Non White British

4. Minority status and migration cannot be separated to assess voting effects of migration alone • British Election Study allows a relatively detailed examination of how different ethnic and national groups vote • No ‘London only’ analysis, but given London’s importance within the GB statistics, the national results are likely to be helpful • Registration and voting behaviour by ‘ethnic group’ differs substantially

5. Vote choice by ethnic group, 2010General Election, UK Taken from: 'Ethnic Heterogeneity in the Social Bases of Voting at the 2010 General Election', by Anthony Heath et al, Journal of Elections, Public Opinion & Parties

6. Voter registration varies by ethnic group, UK

7. London voting effects • The BES analysis suggests that migration (or, at least, minority ethnic status) will be associated with different registration and voting patterns • ‘White’ voters are more likely to vote and more likely to vote Conservative • ‘Other White’ are significantly more likely to vote Conservative • Most other ethnic and national groups are less likely to vote but much more likely to vote Labour • Liberal Democrats appear to do relatively well among ‘Pakistani’ voters

8. European elections 2014 – major parties’ vote share by ethnic group Source: Superdiversity, London and the 2014 Euro-elections  Trevor Phillips and Richard Webber

9. European elections 2014 – party vote share by ethnic group Source: Superdiversity, London and the 2014 Euro-elections  Trevor Phillips and Richard Webber

10. Possible impacts of out-migration from ‘ethnic cluster’ areas? Phillips and Webber suggest: • A move of votes towards the Conservatives is associated with demographic shifts among some visible minority groups from the original areas of settlement to more mixed areas • Amongst those visible minority voters who are most likely to change their behaviour, the single largest movement is amongst Labour ‘deserters’ who have moved out of their areas of original settlement • The largest group of Labour ‘deserters’ are of Indian origin, and of the Hindu religion

11. Ethnicity of Councillors, MPs, Assembly members, and London’s adult population Source: Equal Life Chances for All Measures of Success Bulletin 6: Civic representation in London, Greater London Authority

12. Conclusions - 1 • London voting has been affected by migration • Minority ethnic populations; migration • Within London, there must have been an impact which appears to have helped Labour – at least until now • Minorities are less likely than White British voters to register • New migrant groups appear to have different voting propensities from existing residents

13. Conclusions - 2 • There are very different underlying patterns of voting change from borough to borough • Con to Lab; Lab to Con; Lab to LD; LD to Lab • Any short-term impacts of migration may weaken as minority groups establish themselves over time • NB Phillips and Webber

14. Migration, politics and the city Tony Travers LSE