PS399: Science and Politics of Climate Change

1. PS399: Science and Politics of Climate Change Ronald B. Mitchell Department of Political Science and Program in Environmental Studies

2. Office Hours • PLC-921 • Tu/Th11:30-1:00 • Those who sign up at door given priority but walk-ins always welcome

3. Basic outline of course • Intro • Science • Impacts and ethics of climate change • Drivers of climate change • Getting climate change on the agenda • Sociology and psychology of climate change • Responses to climate change: negotiating a treaty • Responses to climate change: local level and NGOs • Responses to climate change: other options • Symposium of your research

4. “Before we begin” #1 • Do self-introduction in a moment but before we do that: • What are you an expert in? • Where does your expertise come from? • How would we confirm you are an expert? • Why should we trust that you are an expert? • Self intro with • What are you an expert in? • Which of 6 Americas do you fit into?

5. Six Americas of Climate Change

6. Six Americas defined • Alarmed: most engaged in global warming. Very convinced it is happening, human-caused, and a serious and urgent threat. Making changes in their own lives. Support aggressive national response. • Concerned: convinced global warming is serious. Support vigorous national response, but less involved in issue and less likely to take personal action. • Cautious: believe that global warming is a problem, but less certain about it. Not a personal threat, and no urgency to deal with it. • Disengaged:haven’t thought much about it, don’t know much about it, and could easily change their minds about global warming. • Doubtful: split among a) global warming is happening, b) isn’t happening, and c) don’t know. If it’s happening, due to natural changes, won’t harm people for decades, and America is already doing enough. • Dismissive: actively engaged in issue (like Alarmed) but on opposite side. Believe warming is not happening, is not a threat, and is not a problem.

9. The climate change policy debate • US Senator John McCain: “The burning of oil and other fossil fuels is contributing to the dangerous accumulation of greenhouse gases in the Earth’s atmosphere, altering our climate with the potential for major social, economic and political upheaval.” • Former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair and Netherlands Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende: “The science of climate change has never been clearer.” • United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon: “The heat is on. We must act” (2013) but in 2007, said: “The science is clear. Climate change is happening. The impact is real. The time to act is now.” • US Senator James Inhofe: “Anyone who pays even cursory attention to the issue understands that scientists vigorously disagree over whether human activities are responsible for global warming, or whether those activities will precipitate natural disasters. … With all of the hysteria, all of the fear, all of the phony science, could it be that man-made global warming is the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people? It sure sounds like it.” • Professor Richard Lindzen of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology: “Ambiguous scientific statements about climate are hyped by those with a vested interest in alarm”

10. Climate change policy debate involves three types of claims • Example: Is climate change important? • Evidence supporting claim? Evidence refuting? • Positive claims: about how world IS. Include both • Descriptive inferences: “THAT claims” about things that happened we DIDN’T observe • Causal inferences: “WHY claims” about causes we CAN’T observe • Normative claims: about how world SHOULD be • Prescriptive claims: about what we should DO • Consist of combination of positive and normative claims

11. Before we begin #2 • How do we know if a theory is true? • Examples of theory and how you would know

12. How do we know if a theory is true? • Examples of theory and how you would know • Use theory to make predictions of something and then see if “observations of real life” match the predictions.

13. Faith/Opinion/Knowledge • Three types of belief: • I believe that there is/is not a God. • I believe that American government will work better if Republicans/Democrats win the next election. • I believe that human-caused climate change is/is not already occurring. • I strongly prefer that your essay NOT tell me which of the underlined pairs you believe! • Your essay should focus on the ways in which faith, opinion, and knowledge differ.

14. Faith/Opinion/Knowledge • Assignment due at beginning of next class • Discussion for this class • How do you know what you know about climate change? • How did you learn it? • Why do you feel unsure about other things? • Why do you believe some sources? • Why do you believe what you believe? • How likely are you to change that belief? • What evidence would cause you to change your belief?

15. Assignment 0 of 2 • Academic Integrity Assignment • Due date: Friday of Week 1 • By enrolling in this course, you agree to abide by the University’s Student Conduct Code. You must read: • http://studentlife.uoregon.edu/StudentConductandCommunityStandards/ConductCode/tabid/69/Default.aspx • http://libweb.uoregon.edu/guides/plagiarism/students/ • http://www.uoregon.edu/~eherman/writing/Plagiarism.htm • Make sure you understand what they imply about your conduct in this class. Raise any questions you have with the professor.

16. NEXT WEEK!!! Assignment 1 of 2

17. NEXT WEEK!!! Assignment 2 of 2

18. Response papers • Two during course of term • Weeks 3 through 9 • You have been assigned a response paper in each of 2 weeks (that are three weeks apart). Check Blackboard for exact weeks your papers are due). • Response papers are due BEFORE class begins (2 pm on Tuesdays)

19. Final paper plus 2 drafts (week 5 and 8) • Final research paper (40% total: 25% for plus 5% and 10% for drafts – see below) • 15-20 page research paper explaining, in depth, one of the policy components of the course (setting the agenda, international responses, non-international responses). • Two paper drafts to help you build toward the final paper (5% and 10%, respectively)

20. Climate Change Science:An introduction PS399: Science and Politics of Climate Change Ronald B. Mitchell University of Oregon

21. Short form of what you need to know… Haiku and climate change

22. Why should we trust the science and which science should we trust? • Credible sources: expertise and trustworthiness • Individuals using scientific method • Sociology of science and peer review; institutionally conservative IPCC • Confirmation of predictions from theory • Multiple independent sources of same info • Multiple indicators of same trend • Best explanation, not just a possible explanation • Accounting for all data, not just selected data Trust the “preponderance of skeptically-evaluated evidence” not the consensus

23. Weather vs. climate • Climate = the average weather. • Weather is chaotic, climate is not. • “Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get.” • Why can we predict climate but not weather? • Can predict June “climate” but not June weather • Know Eugene is wetter than Phoenix even though it may rain in either & can’t predict perfectly if it will tomorrow • Always easier to predict an average

24. “Go to” source for this info Google: IPCC Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report Plus IPCC Climate Change 2013 www.climatechange2013.org

25. The Climate System

26. The Greenhouse Effect IPCC: http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/faq-1-3-figure-1.html

27. Is Climate Changing?

28. Is climate changing? Yes. What’s the evidence? • Temp increasing faster than “normal” • Numerous measurements show this • Numerous “proxies” also show this • What’s a “proxy”? “Prius-owning person” for “low emitting person” • Natural system responding as expected if it were warming • Precipitation – more, more intense, less frequent rain • Sea level rise and wave heights • Extreme climate events: droughts, floods, hurricanes • Species changes (“phenology”) • Rivers and glaciers and polar regions • CanNOT attribute single events; can attribute probability shift

29. Multiple indicators of warming • Surface thermometer measurements: Warming • Precipitation: Changing patterns • Glaciers: Receding • Sea level change: Rising • Sea ice : Declining • Ocean temperature : Warming • Satellite temperature measurements : Warming • Climate proxies: Warming

30. Multiple indicators of warming “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, sea level has risen, and the concentrations of greenhouse gases have increased” (IPCC, 2013).

31. Variations of the Earth's Surface Temperature for Past 1000 Years Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 2001. Climate change 2001: the scientific basis, summary for policymakers (a report of Working Group I of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). Geneva: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 3. At: http://www.ipcc.ch/present/cop65/johnhoughton.ppt

32. Variations of the Earth's Surface Temperature for Past 140 Years Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 2001. Climate change 2001: the scientific basis, summary for policymakers (a report of Working Group I of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). Geneva: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 3.

33. Sea level rise Source: IPCC, 2013: “The rate of sea level rise since the mid-19th century has been larger than the mean rate during the previous two millennia.”

34. Precipitation changes Source: IPCC, 2013

35. The Earth’s ice • Arctic sea ice loss 1900-201o – long time trend of large phenomenon (~3.5%/decade) • Greenland glacier loss – long time trend of one case • Glacier loss pictures – numerous cases of same phenomenon

36. Glaciers receding IPCC: http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/figure-4-13.html

37. Observed effects of climate changes “Of the more than 29,000 observational data series, from 75 studies, that show significant change in many physical and biological systems, more than 89% are consistent with the direction of change expected as a response to warming” IPCC, 2007)

38. But not everything is changing • Antarctic sea ice loss – “little evidence of long-term changes in … max or min ice extent” • “No clear trend in the annual numbers of tropical cyclones” (IPPC, 2007). • “Insufficient evidence to determine whether trends exist in … small-scale phenomena such as tornadoes, hail, lightning and dust storms” (IPPC, 2007).

39. QUESTIONS?

40. What are the Causes of Climate Change?

41. Human GHG emissions:up 70% from 1970-2004 IPCC: http://www.ipcc.ch/graphics/syr/fig2-1.jpg

42. Basics of that chart:3 main greenhouse gases & their 4 sources • Since 1900: 1.5F rise in avg temp; 30% increase in atmospheric CO2; 150% increase in atmospheric CH4 • 75% of problem: Carbon Dioxide (CO2) • Fossil fuel use for transport, electricity, heating, cooling, manufacturing (55%) • Deforestation (20%) • 15% of problem: Methane (CH4) • Livestock and manure • Rice cultivation • 8% of problem: Nitrous Oxide (N2O) • Agriculture fertilization

43. Increasing emissions show up in atmosphere: CO2 measured at Mauna Loa Source: IPCC, 2013

44. Correlation of emissions with temperature increases Source: IPCC, 2013

45. How those gasescause global warming • Many causes of greenhouse effect • There are few non-human causes of increase in greenhouse effect • CO2 and CH4: • VERY small fraction of atmosphereN2: 78%; O2: 21%; Ar: 1%; CO2: 0.04%; CH4: 0.0002% • BUT atmosphere is in equilibrium • Allow short wavelength light through but block long wavelength light and re-reflect it

46. A Chart with Too Much Detail! Source: World Resources Institute: http://www.wri.org/image/view/9529/_original

47. How do we know humans are the cause? -- Correlation of changes with human activities -- Computer models match data only when BOTH natural and human causes are included.

48. IPCC Consensus that Humans are causing it: Getting Stronger • FAR: 1990: unequivocal detection of enhanced greenhouse gas effect not likely for decade or more • SAR: 1995: balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate • TAR: 2001: new, stronger evidence that most warming observed of last 50 years is due to humans • AT4: 2007: most observed increase in global average temps since 1950 is likely due to anthropogenic greenhouse emissions • AT5: 2013: extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century Slide courtesy of Greg Bothun, U of Oregon

49. QUESTIONS?

50. What are the Likely Impacts of Climate Change?