Friends of the Earth England, Wales and Northern Ireland International climate work

1. Friends of the Earth England, Wales and Northern Ireland International climate work Strategy for 2010-2011 To be reviewed in January 2011

2. Structure of power-point • Quick catch-up on status of negotiations post Bonn meeting • Context for our work – science, politics, dilemma faced by NGOs, limitations to change • Friends of the Earth International & its work • Friends of the Earth EWNI work

3. 1. Status update – international negotiations • The Bonn session of the UNFCCC negotiations concluded with the climate regime in a precarious position. The United States and other Umbrella Countries are continuing their effort to end the Kyoto Protocol’s legally binding regime. In addition, the new non-Kyoto Protocol Convention (LCA) text is decidedly unbalanced in favour of developed countries and the controversial Copenhagen Accord. • Developed countries more than ever indicated their intent to kill off the KP and its 2nd commitment period. Russia supported by Japan openly opposed references to the 2nd commitment period and to increased ambition by Annex 1 parties. • USA – announced “a new paradigm for climate diplomacy”. Todd Stern, US Special Climate Envoy, has said this will build on the Copenhagen Accord, reflect a “bottom up architecture” based on “domestically derived mitigation commitments”. This means no negotiation on mitigation targets, no aggregate targets, no comparability of effort, no compliance rules and no global goal based on the science. • Developing countries made it very clear that they will not allow the KP to be held hostage by Annex 1 countries. • Targets: UNFCCC data released to show with current targets we are heading for 4 degrees temp increase • Loopholes: Rich countries seeking to weaken rules on land use & land use change to allow massive loopholes in their emission targets • Finance: Even the existing pledges under the Copenhagen Accord are not being met. Most monies are recycled aid money or to be provided by carbon markets in the future.

4. 2. Context for our work • Carbon budgets are running out: • The World has space for less than 10 years of current emissions before the carbon budget has run out for a 100 per cent chance of avoiding 2 degrees. • To return global concentrations to 350 ppm CO2 would require cuts equivalent to 50 per cent by 2020 in north & south and around 10 per cent per annum after. • To return global concentrations to 300 ppm CO2 would mean immediate cessation of emissions and would still take millennia for global concentrations to decline • Negotiations are failing, reasons include: • Lack of public understanding of urgency and scale of impacts • Belief that public in rich countries won’t “give-up” what they have, so politicians can’t move • Other countries aspire to same/similar consumption based way of life (growing middle classes & elites) • More action on climate perceived as bad for the economy in short-term • Vested interests that lose from a low carbon economy are more powerful than progressives and fight to minimise change /maintain status quo • Lack of pressure in particular countries and globally to move to more ambitious positions • Unwillingness of developing countries to be bullied into accepting a poor agreement

5. Dilemma faced by NGOs • The safest path (350 ppm) requires massive cuts in both rich countries and developing countries (equivalent to 50 per cent by 2020 for both with 10 per cent per annum thereafter). • A great outcome of negotiations is an agreement giving a high chance of avoiding 2 degrees with the global carbon budget divided fairly*. This would require cuts in rich countries plus financial transfers that are far beyond anything contemplated by politicians and may be technically impossible to deliver within democratic constraints. • An optimistic outcome: from 1990 levels is average Annex 1 countries cuts of 40 per cent cuts (EU more than 40, USA as close to 40 per cent as technically possible - which may be not significantly more than 10 per cent according to current scenario work), and China peak & decline by 2020. This probably provides at best a 50 per cent chance of avoiding 2 degrees. • The best likely outcome (EU 30 per cent, USA double current, China peak & decline 2025) probably gives a 50:50 chance of avoiding 3 degrees. (see slides 28-31 for details on these) Dilemma - To accept less than a high chance of avoiding 2 degrees increases the risk of condemning those on the front-line to a mass loss of life and livelihoods; to call for cuts in line with a high chance risks political marginalisation and public rejection. *based on fair per capita allocation of remaining carbon budget including some historical emissions, with a good chance of avoiding 2 degrees

6. Carbon budgets research • Identifies how much carbon budget left according to temperature target and choice on risk, i.e. budget is larger if aiming for a low chance of avoiding 2 degrees than if aiming for a high chance (85% chance of avoiding 2 degrees = carbon budget of 1174 Giga-tonnes of CO2e from 2000-2050 of which 500 has already been used; a 50% chance gives a carbon budget of 2025GtCO2) • This needs to be allocated to all countries (developed and developing) and enables identification of scale of reductions and financial obligations • Choice of risk requires debates on consequences of choice (e.g. high chance of avoiding 1.5 degrees may avoid big climate impacts, but may also need rapid decline in fossil fuel use that can only be achieved by e.g. switching off electricity supply for some of the time or closing motorways 1 dpw)

7. Research on how fast UK can make transition to a low carbon economy • Various scenarios suggest different possibilities on speed of reductions (e.g. Centre for Alternative Technology says zero carbon Britain possible by 2030, Stockholm Environment Institute struggled to get 95 per cent cuts by 2050) • We need to assess these and understand how plausible they are, how much they take account of supply chain, what behavioural change required, assumptions on economic growth/carbon intensity etc. • Once we have assessed these we will be in a better position to identify how close the UK can get to living within its fair share of a global carbon budget as identified by global carbon budgets work. This assessment has to involve judgements on how much behavioural change can be delivered within next 20 years and how fast carbon intensity can be reduced. It will stimulate debates about what rate of economic growth rate is possible if we are to stay within environmental limits (Zero Carbon Britain appears to assume zero, FOE/Tyndall 2006 used 3 per cent). • Once we have identified what we can deliver in cuts we can go and advocate these within the UK and seek to influence Friends of the Earth International positions.

8. 4. Friends of the Earth International

9. FOEI strategy and principles • Strategy is wider than UNFCCC. It aims to also: • Create a stronger movement by forming alliances with other networks/movements that share same values. • Support those who are most affected by climate change to be heard by decision makers • Prevent vested interests wrecking action on climate change or securing false solutions • Work with local communities in both the North and South to build just, sustainable and low carbon economies • Principles that shapes its positions: • rights-based approach to tackle climate change • Those responsible for the climate crisis must be the ones who mitigate it and support efforts to increase resilience to climate impacts. • All people must be able to live a dignified life within ecological limits

10. FOEI objectives at UN talks • Defend the UN and prevent the dismantling of the UN Climate Convention and to work to ensure an adequate and equitable international agreement • Pressure developing countries to demand rich countries targets under Kyoto Protocol and finance are agreed before they accept/agree targets • Expose those actors who are pressing for destructive positions • Promote policy frameworks and alternative solutions that lead to systemic changes • Ensure that those most vulnerable and affected by climate change impacts are seen and heard in the negotiations • Strengthen FoEI’s ability to make an effective impact through closer working together and improved alliances and coalitions

11. What FOEI is doing by regions • FOE USA - expose and marginalise their attempts to derail the UN process, building internal pressure for more US action through building coalitions with social, development, justice organisations to counteract conservative NGOs; oppose ‘bad’ climate law which proposes no real cuts in USA; build support for more progressive climate law in 2013/14. Note that the USA is most influenced by internal pressure but that this can be augmented by well-coordinated external pressure. • FOE Europe - supporting national campaigns for climate laws; pressure EU with progressive businesses and others for 40per cent by 2020, Kyoto Protocol agreement and pressure on US. • FOE Africa – trying to keep progressive countries strong against USA pressure, supporting communities to undertake advocacy on adaptation issues and on deforestation to share at international level; national policy and advocacy work; representatives on official negotiating delegations; regional advocacy work including working with the Pan Africa Climate Justice Alliance to ensure that African civil society perspectives are strongly heard at regional and international summits; preparing for COP 17 in Johannesburg • FoE Latin America and the Caribbean – trying to keep progressive countries strong against USA pressure, pressuring key governments on deforestation; national policy work; preventing key governments falling in behind weak ambition through building national and regional civil society pressure towards Cancun; representatives on official negotiating delegations; developing actions that can be taken in the region ahead of Cancun • FoE Asia-Pacific –trying to keep progressive countries strong against USA pressure, pressuring key governments on deforestation and climate finance work; national policy work; lobbying key negotiators; representatives on Bangladesh negotiating delegation; developing civil society alliances on climate justice across the region to pressure key targets

12. FoEI critical pathway for UN negotiations It is accepted within FOEI that the sequence we should work for is: Stop Copenhagen accord Get 2nd Kyoto Commitment by end of 2011, together with progress on finance / technology for developing countries enable deviation from business as usual by developing countries better US legislation by end of 2014 US and China agree LCA track targets end 2014 Developing countries binding targets for post 2017 agreed 2015.

13. What can Friends of the Earth EWNI best do? • Support and influence FoEI in developing positions (e.g. research on global carbon budgets) and influence FoEI communications strategy • Identify global social and economic benefits of transition to low carbon economy and secure support from progressive businesses. • Identify what is most UK could do in 2020 & 2030, get UK to move to 42 per cent and play a more progressive role in relation to the climate negotiations • Support FOEE in campaigning for increased EU ambition (40 per cent with no offsets), increased EU pressure on USA, and highlight those actors lobbying for low ambition via coalition actions, lobbying & media work with CAN Europe. • Support Friends of the Earth USA endeavours by encouraging global public pressure on USA • Coordinate influence on developing country and EU negotiators to press primarily USA but also others pushing weak deal (e.g. Canada) • Provide space for affected people to have voice heard in and ahead of negotiations to generate public and media pressure (as in Stand-up for Africa actions in Copenhagen) • Coordinate the building of much greater global public pressure for fair & sufficient action on climate change.

14. EWNI Aim • By end of 2011 to have increased UK & EU ambition on cutting emissions more in line with their fair share of the global carbon budget; generated sufficient international political pressure on USA and others to stop a weak and inequitable international climate agreement; and build support for public finance being delivered through the auspices of the UN for adaptation and clean development in developing countries. As a result we will have increased the likelihood of a global agreement through the UN more in line with the principles of climate justice by 2015.

15. EWNI objectives • To provide a narrative about the negotiation process, and mobilise a strong constituency able to effectively pressure key targets for a fairer & stronger agreement by developing and delivering a communications and activism strategy in conjunction with Friends of the Earth Europe and Friends of the Earth International which conveys the positive reasons for greater ambition and, is honest about the climate change threat • To achieve a shift in the UK and help Friends of the Earth Europe to shift the EU to a more ambitious position on emissions cuts and securing legally binding targets & rules. • To prevent, with FOE I, the content of the Copenhagen Accord from gaining primacy in the international climate negotiations by pressurising those countries (primarily the USA and other Annex 1 countries) pushing for a weak and inequitable agreement, and by working with progressive countries and civil society to build support for a stronger & fairer agreement based on the principles enshrined in the UN Climate Change Convention • To achieve, with FOE I and other allies, finance policies which fulfil the commitments under the UN convention of industrialised countries to support clean development and adaptation in developing countries.

16. Objective 1 + tasks • To provide a narrative about the negotiation process, and mobilise a strong constituency able to effectively pressure key targets for a fairer & stronger agreement by developing and delivering a communications and activism strategy in conjunction with Friends of the Earth Europe and Friends of the Earth International which conveys the positive reasons for greater ambition and, is honest about the climate change threat Tasks • To produce research to provide intellectual content on global carbon budgets and economic benefits to influence FOEI, activists and progressive businesses , and create opportunities for them to align behind it to influence negotiations. • To build and deepen understanding of global carbon budgets, climate justice and the principles embedded within it within EWNI, FoEE and FoEI to enable the development of clear and coherent positions and communications that both convey our key messages and are able to mobilise target audiences • To contribute to a FoE I campaign that reflects the relevant issues in the negotiations by using a variety of offline and online tools directed at and in the UN negotiations over the next 18 months with key moments in Cancun 2010 and South Africa 2011. • Through 2010 and towards 2011 develop a strong and committed network of activists and ambassadors who are able to effectively mobilise new constituencies and wider audiences in support of our campaign demands. • To work with Christian Aid, CAFOD, 350.org and others to develop a stronger climate justice axis at both policy and campaign level.

17. Objective 2 + tasks • To achieve a shift in the UK and help Friends of the Earth Europe to shift the EU to a more ambitious position on emissions cuts and binding targets and rules. Tasks: • To get the UK to shift to 42 per cent cut and support 2nd commitment period of Kyoto Protocol through lobbying of Committee on Climate Change, demonstrate positive economic benefits, get progressive business support, and lobbying of MPs/Ministers. • At the EU level to increase political support for 40% cuts (and at least a move to 30 per cent) and binding targets and rules (as good as or better than Kyoto Protocol) period through carbon budgets work, advocating economic benefits, gaining progressive businesses support and direct contact and lobbying of MEP’s. • Transition to a low carbon economy - provide evidence for the benefits of moving to more ambitious positions, gain the support of progressive businesses, and reduce the excessive influence of dirty industry in Europe over EU climate policy • Provide the EU (MEPs, EU Commission and the new DG on Climate) and UK decision makers with a more robust geo-political analysis by exposing EU decision makers to the voices of developing country negotiators and civil society representatives from the South so as to help commit them to the 2nd commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol.

18. Objective 3 + tasks • To prevent, with FOE I, the content of the Copenhagen Accord from gaining primacy in the international climate negotiations by pressurising those countries (primarily the USA and other Annex 1 countries) pushing for a weak and inequitable agreement, and by working with progressive countries and civil society to build support for a stronger & fairer agreement based on the principles enshrined in the UN Climate Change Convention Tasks: • To work with Friends of the Earth US to: expose the inadequacy of the  USA position on tacking climate change through carbon budgets work; assist in building a counter-weight to US conservative NGOs ; increase political (EU/European Parliament/ developing country) pressure on USA Government, and increase public pressure through media work, e-actions and lobbying. • Build awareness of the content of the Accord by disseminating information and analysis to civil society groups in order to generate opposition to the Accord. • To target and lobby key developing country Parties (including those most vulnerable to climate change) to build momentum against the content of the Accord through online letters, face to face meetings and activities at relevant forums. • To engage with and lobby country Parties using our global carbon budget research so as to directly influence the UNFCCC negotiations towards levels of emissions cuts required by our established global targets • To defend and maintain the primacy of the multilateral process as the best hope for a global agreement built on the principles enshrined in the UN Climate Convention and the two track approach of Kyoto and Long Term Co-operative Action • To work with Friends of the Earth groups and allies such as CAFOD and Christian Aid to build public and political pressure on developed country Governments to break their consensus on support for the content of the Accord. • Work with FoE Europe and FoE international to reduce the negative influence of corporate lobbyists (e.g. energy intensive industries) at the UNFCCC and work with progressive businesses to ensure their voices can be heard. • To ensure a rights based perspective informs the text and legal architecture of any UNFCCC agreement including ensuring that the rights of indigenous and forest dwelling peoples is included in any climate agreements, the voices of civil society organisations are not marginalised in the UNFCCC process, and by providing expert legal expertise to Friends of the Earth International and Parties on appropriate legal architecture for any agreement

19. Objective 4 + tasks • To achieve, with FOE I and other allies, finance policies which fulfil the commitments under the UN convention of industrialised countries to support clean development and adaptation in developing countries. • Tasks • With FoE I groups, ensure climate financing pledged (including ‘fast start’) does not support the establishment of carbon offsetting / carbon trading mechanisms, particularly in forests. • To ensure public finance pledged is under the authority of the COP, and only supports adaptation and clean development (including clean renewables, energy efficiency) and does not support socially and environmentally damaging projects (including  mega dams, nuclear, coal). With FoE I groups, continue to expose the role of the World Bank in financing climate change and its unacceptability to control climate finance.

20. Out with bad and in with the good! • To stop the content of the Copenhagen Accord from gaining primacy in the international climate negotiations by exposing those rich countries (such as the USA and other Annex 1 countries) pushing for a weak and inequitable agreement, and to work with progressive countries and civil society to build support for a stronger & fairer agreement based on the principles enshrined in the UN Climate Change Convention.

21. Show Me The Money!! • To build support for climate finance policies which fulfil the commitments under the UN convention of industrialised countries to support clean development and adaptation in developing countries, whilst exposing those actors who are undermining or blocking progress. • Governance – Yes to Good UN Governance and No to World Bank • Sources – Yes to Robin Hood Tax on Financial Transactions and No to Forest Money through Carbon Offset Schemes • Mechanisms – Yes to Good regulationary measures and No to Carbon Trading • Financial Flows –Yes to Clean Development and No to Dirty Project

22. Stand Up for our rights!! • To ensure a rights based perspective informs the text and legal architecture of any UNFCCC agreement. • Provide – legal expertise on new agreement • Fight for – rights of people (especially indigenous) in agreement • Stop – Voices of civil society being silenced in UNFCCC • Support – UN process not illegitimate G8/G20

23. Take me to your leader!! • To shift the UK and help FoEE to shift the EU to a more ambitious position on key policy areas (levels of emissions cuts and climate finance) by identifying the positive reasons for change and exposing those forces blocking progress • Shift - EU level to 40% • Expose – influence of dirty industry stopping progress • Educate – UK/EU decision makers to voices of the South • Convince – EU of economic benefits of being ambitious

24. What do we want! When do we want it! • By end of 2011 to have increased UK & EU ambition on cutting emissions more in line with their fair share of the global carbon budget; generated sufficient

25. Get ready to rumble!! • To develop a communications and activism strategy in conjunction with Friends of the Earth Europe and Friends of the Earth International which conveys the positive reasons for greater ambition and a fairer & stronger agreement and mobilises a strong constituency able to effectively pressure key targets. • Brains - provide intellectual content (such as our work on global carbon budgets) for the movement to align behind • Heart - deepen understanding of climate justice and the principles embedded within it • Muscle - build a FoE I/FoE E/EWNI campaign to motivate people to want to support our demands • Voice – get more groups supporting us so our voice is even louder and can’t be ignored

26. Resources committed • International climate team (4 FTE), Economics* (1 FTE), International Coordinator (1.25 dpw), some of P&C Director and Head of Climate, Communications (1 FTE), Activism (1 dpw), plus other climate staff on getting UK to move to 42 per cent * Dependent on unfreezing of economic posts Negotiations – incl. influence USA – 25 % Finance – 10% Shift UK – 25% Shift EU – 15% Carbon budgets – 10% Economic benefits – 15%