CRGAQS: Meteorological Modeling

1. CRGAQS:Meteorological Modeling Presentation to the SWCAA By ENVIRON International Corporation Alpine Geophysics, LLC August 17, 2006

2. Today’s Presentation • Further additional evaluation of MM5 performance • Compare 4/12-km results • Compare Final (Run 6) against UW (Run 3) • Analyses conducted for: • 4-km surface wind fields in Gorge area • Wind, temperature, humidity time series at west, central, east sites

3. Today’s Presentation • PBL/mixing heights • Cloud cover and fog on 4-km grid • Wind, temperature, RH at Wishram

4. Conclusions • Winds similar among: • 4-km and 12-km grids • Final Run 6 and UW Run 3 • Possible slight edge to Run 6 4-km winds due to observation nudging • Temperature/humidity: • UW Run 3 better for November • Final Run 6 @12-km better for August

5. Conclusions • Clouds/fog: • Unimportant for August episode • Very important for November episode • UW Run 3 generates more low clouds/flog • But less high large-scale cloudiness • Recommendation: • Use Final Run 6 12-km for August • Use UW Run 3 4-km for November

6. Wind Performance, August 2004 • Hi bscat 8/10-8/16, 8/19 • Similar performance, both runs, both grids • Poor performance at central sites 8/10-8/13 • Wind opposite direction • Good performance 8/14-8/22 • Maybe too light on some days

7. UW 4km

8. UW 12km

9. Run 6 4km

10. Run 6 12km

11. Wind Performance, November 2004 • Hi bscat 11/8-11/13 • Similar performance, both runs, both grids • Final Run 6 a bit better (nudging?) • Overall better performance than for August episode • Very good performance over 11/8-11/13 • Some stagnation leads to wind direction errors • Some windy periods are too light

12. UW 4km

13. UW 12km

14. Run 6 12km

15. Run 6 12km

16. August 2004 notes at Wishram camera: Cloud Cover 8/10 Scattered clouds < half of sky, No layered haze 8/11 No clouds, No layered haze 8/12 Scattered clouds < half of sky, No layered haze 8/13 No clouds, No layered haze 8/14 (high) Overcast > half of sky, No layered haze 8/15 Scattered clouds < half of sky, No layered haze 8/16 (high thin) Overcast > half of sky, No layered haze 8/17 (high thin) Overcast > half of sky, No layered haze 8/18 (high thin) Overcast > half of sky, No layered haze 8/19 Scattered clouds < half of sky, No layered haze 8/20 (high thin) Overcast > half of sky, No layered haze 8/21 (high) Overcast > half of sky, No layered haze 8/22 Overcast > half of sky, No layered haze

17. August 2004 Cloud Cover • Performance appears adequate • MM5 cannot replicate high thin/wispy cirrus • MM5 usually underperforms for scattered small-scale afternoon cumulus • These should not play significant role in regional PM chemistry • Choice of MM5 not important

18. Wishram Camera August 14, noon Pristine

19. Run 6 Low High

20. UW Run 3 Low High

21. November 2004 notes at Wishram camera: Cloud Cover 11/3 Scattered clouds < half of sky, No layered haze 11/4 No clouds, Ground-based layered haze only 11/5 (high thin) Overcast > half of sky, No layered haze (hazy) 11/6 Scattered clouds < half of sky, Ground-based layered haze only 11/7 Overcast > half of sky, No layered haze (hazy) 11/8 Overcast > half of sky, Weather concealing scene (thick haze) 11/9 Overcast > half of sky, Weather concealing scene (thick haze) 11/10 Overcast > half of sky, Weather concealing scene (fog) 11/11 Overcast > half of sky, Weather concealing scene (thick haze) 11/12 Overcast > half of sky, Weather concealing scene (fog) 11/13 Overcast > half of sky, Weather concealing scene (thick haze) 11/14 Overcast > half of sky, Weather concealing scene (distant fog) 11/15 Overcast > half of sky, Weather concealing scene 11/16 Overcast > half of sky, No layered haze 11/17 Scattered clouds < half of sky, No layered haze 11/18 Overcast > half of sky, No layered haze

22. November 2004 Cloud Cover • Large-scale higher clouds appear well simulated • Run 6 makes more large-scale (higher) cloudiness • Low-level cloud/fog events are not • Run 3 makes more low-level (foggy) clouds • Especially on the high bscat days • This will impact aqueous PM chemistry

23. Wishram Camera November 10, noon Pristine

24. Run 6 Low High

25. UW Run 3 Low High

26. Wishram Camera November 13, noon Pristine

27. UW Run 3 Run 6 Low Low

28. August 2004 Meteorology • Wind speed/direction well simulated • Both grids, both MM5 configurations • Run 6 4-km temperatures are highly suspect • Run 6 12-km is better • But min temps too warm during haze period • Better characterization of afternoon mixing? • Run 3 4- & 12-km are better • But too cool during haze period

29. August 2004 Meteorology • Run 6 4-km humidity too wet • Run 6 12-km humidity better • But not high enough in early morning (related to high min temps) • Run 3 4- & 12-km humidity better • But not high enough in early morning • Overall Run 6 12-km met looks best

30. UW 4km Wind Speed

31. Run 6 4km Wind Speed

32. UW 4km Wind Direction

33. Run 6 4km Wind Direction

34. Wishram Meteorology

35. Wishram Meteorology

36. UW 4km Temperature

37. Run 6 4km Temperature

38. Run 6 12km Temperature

39. Wishram Meteorology

40. UW/Run 6 PBL Heights

41. UW 4km Mixing Ratio

42. Run 6 4km Mixing Ratio

43. Run 6 12km Mixing Ratio

44. Wishram Meteorology

45. November 2004 Meteorology • Wind speed/direction performance appears acceptable • Both grids, both simulations • Run 6 perhaps a bit better (nudging) • Run 6 4-km temperature performance is poor • Run 6 12-km better • Run 3 4-km much better • Run 6 4-km humidity is too low – no fog • Run 6 12-km better • Run 3 4-km much better • Overall Run 3 4-km looks best

46. UW 4km Wind Speed

47. Run 6 4km Wind Speed

48. UW 4km Wind Direction

49. Run 6 4km Wind Direction

50. Wishram Meteorology