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Consequences for the government of England

Consequences for the government of England. Tony Travers London School of Economics. The government of England. UK Parliament and government is England’s Parliament and government Failure of efforts to solve ‘West Lothian’ problem Blair government’s English regional policy

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Consequences for the government of England

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  1. Consequences for the government of England Tony Travers London School of Economics

  2. The government of England • UK Parliament and government is England’s Parliament and government • Failure of efforts to solve ‘West Lothian’ problem • Blair government’s English regional policy • Greater London Authority • RDAs; Government Regional Offices, regional ‘assemblies’ • North East referendum (2004) • Abolition of all ‘regional’ machinery by Coalition

  3. Some options for England • English Parliament • Dominant within ‘federal’ UK • Two PMs? • English Grand Committee • Plus convention that its decisions on England laws would not be overturned by UK parliament • McKay Commission proposals • English MPs’ veto/delaying power • Fourth reading of England-only Bills • Final decision given to English MPs • Do nothing, but have a running debate

  4. England’s sub-national government • Relatively weak, residual, local government system • Transfer of services from LG over post-1945 period • Utilities; health; ambulances; advanced FE; FE; schools, public health [also, non-domestic rates] • Modest transfers to LG: ‘community care’; public health; council tax ‘support’; • Local taxation frozen and capped • GLA and ‘city region’ combined authorities have been able to negotiate limited financial freedoms

  5. The debate about Scotland • Has reminded English politicians and others about the Barnett Formula and Scotland’s funding advantage • Scotland and Wales have shown that radical devolution within the UK can be achieved without collapse and failure • Calman, Holtham, Silk have proposed substantial tax reform to build upon existing devolution • Taxation powers will test Treasury orthodoxy • NB: Scottish Conservatives’ income tax policy

  6. Barnett and England

  7. Public expenditure by nation and region, 2011-12 Source: HM Treasury, Public Expenditure Statistical Analyses2013, Table 9.20

  8. ‘Devo max’: not for England • No current proposals to change the sub-national government of England • ‘City regional’ government now part of a multi-party political consensus • Greater Manchester is the best-developed city region outside London • ‘Earn Back’ deal [also now for Cambridge] • Developed economic plan for Greater Manchester • London • No greater tax freedom than the rest of England • But, London Finance Commission proposals for fiscal devolution to some extent picked up by Adonis report

  9. After the referendum: what next for England? • Osborne, Miliband offer some form of city regional powers • Barrier to substantial England reforms • Scotland, wales, Northern Ireland administrations were already separate from England when devolution occurred • Any substantive devolution within England would weaken Whitehall departments • Health, Education, Work & Pensions • Baronies of UK central government are (arguably) now more powerful than the Treasury

  10. Challenge/opportunity of continued ‘austerity’ • Unsustainable size of UK State • Tax: 38% GDP; Expenditure: 43% GDP • Zero deficit = Expenditure: 38% GDP • Need for government to devolve shrinkage of the State? • Relative dynamism and productivity of city/local government • Either local government in England will have to shrink by 50% in real terms or there will have to be devolution of local public spending to areas • City regions as potential pilots

  11. What the English think…. Source: John Curtice in ‘Does England want Scotland to Leave or Stay?’, NatCen, 2014

  12. Conclusions • England’s self-perception as a single country appears very powerful • Not much evidence the public is much concerned with England’s constitutional position within the UK • Sub-national government in England weaker than in the past • London as possible exception – up to a point • Limited form of ‘city regional’ devolution may be the next step…

  13. Consequences for the government of England Tony Travers London School of Economics

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