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How You Don’t Tell the Truth Disagreement as Self-Deception about Meta-Rationality

How You Don’t Tell the Truth Disagreement as Self-Deception about Meta-Rationality. Robin Hanson Tyler Cowen George Mason University. From Bias to Self-Deception. “Pretty women are dumb” Some dumb folks sometimes think this Most people tend to think this, but not me

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How You Don’t Tell the Truth Disagreement as Self-Deception about Meta-Rationality

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  1. How You Don’t Tell the TruthDisagreement as Self-Deception about Meta-Rationality Robin Hanson Tyler Cowen George Mason University

  2. From Bias to Self-Deception “Pretty women are dumb” • Some dumb folks sometimes think this • Most people tend to think this, but not me • When I’m not careful, I tend to think this • I enjoy believing this about Britney Spears • Pretty Sue’s paper must be wrong; reject it

  3. Basic Argument • Irrational to disagree if both seek truth, not lie • Others’ opinions like sufficient stats of what they know • “Meta-rational” if know of this, seek truth • We think we usually seek truth, not lie, but … • Every pair of us can find many topics disagree on • Even if know each other for years • Even those who accept that disagreeing is irrational • So we all seem self-deceived about truth seeking!

  4. age 7 here age 2 here John estimates old car (age E1[x]) “It wasn’t shiny” “I’ve never been wrong before” “I can still picture it” “It sounded old” “I had a good viewing angle” “Fred said so” “Mary is blind”

  5. age 7 here age 2 here Mary estimates new car (age E2[x]) average age in here is E2[x]

  6. Aumann in ‘76 Common knowledge On exact E1[x], E2[x] That would say next On matter of fact Bayesians Common priors Truth-seeker, not lie Since generalized to Common Belief Of that E1[x] ≥ E2[x] Last E1[x] , E1[E2[x]] Or morality (vs. taste) Wannabe, rational core We Can’t Agree to Disagree

  7. But We Do Disagree • Can predict direction of their next opinion • verified in controlled experiment • Armchair phenomena: • Esp. regarding who able, politics, morality, … • Though not regarding “There’s another tree” • Dismiss dumber, but not defer to smarter • Disagree not embarrass (vs. inconsistent) • Those accept irrational to disagree still do! • How reconcile theory, phenomena?

  8. How Few Meta-Rationals (MR)? • Rational beliefs linear in % MR, % not • MR who meet, talk long, should see are MR • Joint opinion path becomes random walk • We see no virtually such pairs, so few MR! • N each talk 2T others, see ~N*T*(MR%)2 pairs • If MR only at moments, no pattern to which? • Even among accept irrational to disagree • If not lying, self-deceivedif say seek truth!

  9. Self-Deception • We seem self-deceived re our truth-seeking • 94% profs. say better than ave. colleague • Minds unconsciously favor certain beliefs • Selectively disable normal critical abilities • Disagree conscious defense: “I’m less biased” • Evolutionary rationale: • To convince others that able, convince self • Over-confidence can be costly reliable signal

  10. When Justified In Disagree? • Key: relative MR/self-deception, not info • Psych. lit. gives self-deception clues: • Is harder about own overt behaviors • Older kids hide it better than younger • Self-deceivers have more self-esteem, less psychopathology, especially depression • Clues?: IQ/idiocy, self-interest, emotional arousal, formality, unwilling to analyze, ...

  11. Resolutions • Tyler: “I’m split; my truth-seeking part can’t control more; that is human nature” • Robin: “We can do better via improving self-deception clues, better institutions” We appear to agree to disagree! :-) But we accept are not truth-seeking.

  12. Implications • Facts may not resolve poli-econ disputes • Even if we share basic values • Academia models need not be of truth-seek • New institution goal: reduce self-deception • Key to speculative markets aggregate info well? • Self-doubt for supposed truth-seekers • “First cast out the beam out of thine own eye; and then shalt thou see clearly to cast out the mote out of thy brother's eye.” Matthew 7:5

  13. Why Common Priors? Prior = counterfactual belief if low same info If seek truth, vs. just max utility: • Same info => same belief, else non-truth base • Implicit in update via Bayes’ rule • If immediate causal ancestors, why not all? • Consider counterfactual where not know prior • We endowed mainly with belief we reason better (vs. endowed with specific opinions)

  14. A gets clue on X A1 = A’s guess of X A told Sign(B2-B1) A2 = A’s guess of X Loss (A1-X)2, (A2-X)2 B gets clue on X B told A1 B1 = B’s guess of X B2 = B’s guess of A2 Loss (B1-X)2, (B2-A2)2 Experiment Shows We Disagree time

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