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Predicting Movie Box Office Performance

Predicting Movie Box Office Performance. Alex Larson ECE 539 Fall 2013. Reasons to Predict & Goal. Movies are a large part of today’s culture Movies are expensive to make Goal: To predict a movie potential box office success based on its characteristics. Data Collection.

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Predicting Movie Box Office Performance

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  1. Predicting Movie Box Office Performance Alex Larson ECE 539 Fall 2013

  2. Reasons to Predict & Goal • Movies are a large part of today’s culture • Movies are expensive to make • Goal: To predict a movie potential box office success based on its characteristics

  3. Data Collection • Movie statistics available online on various websites • Random samples of top movies from recent years • Sample data from the-numbers.com

  4. Features and Classes • Release Month • Distributor • Genre • MPAA Rating (G, PG, etc…) • Is Sequel? (Y/N) • 3 Classes based on Gross in release Year • Gross < $49,000,000 • $49,000,000 < Gross < $91,000,000 • $91,000,00 < Gross

  5. Results So far • Initial results: poor low classification rate • Reevaluated data • Removed various outliers • Limit to top Distributors/Studios • Simplified genre classification

  6. Results So Far

  7. Results So far • Correctly Predicted for 2013: • Iron Man 3 • Hunger Games • Oblivion • Incorrectly Predicted for 2013: • Gravity • After Earth • The Internship

  8. Possible Improvements • Refine features more, add more features like budge, director, lead actors • Try with different combination of features

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