FROM GLOBAL TO LOCAL: IMPACTS ON AGRO-ECOSYSTEMS

1. FROM GLOBAL TO LOCAL: IMPACTS ON AGRO-ECOSYSTEMS Francesco N. Tubiello franci@giss.nasa.gov NASA-GISS and Columbia University Apia, July 31-Aug 4, 2000 Rural Italian Ministry of the Environment

2. OVERVIEW: • CLIMATE CHANGE • OBSERVED EFFECTS, 1950-2000 • ASSESSMENT TOOLS: GLOBAL TO LOCAL

4. HCGG CCGG HCGG CCGG HCGG CCGG

5. EFFECTS ON CROPS • Elevated CO2 : positive (photosynthesis) negative (C3/C4, weeds) • Warmer T’s : positive(longer growing seasons), negative (faster maturity, pests) • Floods, Droughts: ...

6. 1950-2000 US Flooding Damage Midwest flooding: $23.1 billion damage (current US$) Source: NOAA

7. 160 140 40 120 100 80 Bushels/Acre % Change 0 60 40 20 -40 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 45 40 40 35 30 % Change Bushels/Acre 0 25 20 15 -40 1950 1955 1960 1970 1975 1985 1990 1965 1980 1995 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 TRENDS 1950-2000: Crop yields Variability Yield Corn Corn Corn Soybean

8. TOOLS: GCM Current climate Scenarios CROP MODELS Current practice Adaptation ECONOMICS

9. LOCAL ASSESSMENTS Perugia Padova Modena Pisa Brescia Osimo Cropping Systems • Corn-soybean-beet • Beet-wheat-soybean • Sunflower-wheat-rape oil • Durum wheat Foggia Agrigento Tubiello, Rosenzweig, Donatelli. NASA-GISS and ISCI-Bologna

10. PROJECTED CHANGE IN WINTER WHEAT YIELD 2030s CCGS HCGS -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% Crop-modeling site LOCAL ASSESSMENTS CC = Canadian Center Model HC = Hadley Center Model GS = Greenhouse gases with sulfate aerosols Direct CO2 effects included Source: US National Assessment

11. SENSITIVITY Climate variability Corn

12. CONCLUSIONS • NEED TO MITIGATE, AND ADAPT AT THE SAME TIME • TOOLS EXIST TO ASSESS VULNERABILITY OF AGRO-ECOSYSTEMS TO CLIMATE CHANGE AND VARIABILITY, AND TO DEVISE ADAPTATION STRATEGIES • GLOBAL TO LOCAL ASSESSMENT REQUIRE COLLABORATIVE EFFORTS