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Energy and climate change in a myopic world

Energy and climate change in a myopic world. Dr Kevin Anderson Energy & Climate Change programme Tyndall Centre The University of Manchester NASEG. 2006. Talk outline. The voice of Doom (scientific analysis) - A well kept secret – 2  C and the ‘real’ carbon budget

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Energy and climate change in a myopic world

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  1. Energy and climate change in a myopic world Dr Kevin Anderson Energy & Climate Change programme Tyndall Centre The University of Manchester NASEG. 2006

  2. Talk outline The voice of Doom (scientific analysis) - A well kept secret – 2C and the ‘real’ carbon budget - No chance for the climate without tackling aviation A message of hope(policy analysis) - Is there scope for change? - The Tyndall scenarios

  3. A well kept secret – 2C and the ‘real’ carbon budget

  4. The UK Government’s position We should … “prevent the most dangerous effects of climate change” • The UK Government and the EU define this as 2C • Historically, correlated with 550ppmv CO2(or eq?) • Led to UK Government’s 60% reduction target by 2050

  5. More recently … the 2006 Energy Review & Climate Change Programme acknowledge 450ppmv CO2 is much more likely to meet 2°C threshold than 550ppmv Note: even 450ppmv offers, at best, a 50:50 chance of staying below 2°C

  6. However, when it comes to targets … the final % reduction in carbon has little relevance to the 2C or 550/450ppmv concentrations What is important are the cumulative emissions of carbon i.e. CO2 remains in the atmosphere for over 100 years, consequently each year’s emissions add to those emitted in previous years

  7. For a 450ppmv CO2 future, … the UK can emit ~ 4.8 billion tonnes of carbon between 2000-2050 Note: this is based on how the UK Government apportioned global emissions to the UK in order to calculate the ‘60% by 2050’ target

  8. From this two questions arise • What are the emissions between 2000 & 2006? • What emissions are we locked into in the immediate future?

  9. … emissions between 2000-2006 are ~1.2 billion tonnes of carbon For a 450 future, this leaves 3.6 billion tonnes for 2007-2050 … i.e. we’ve used ¼ of our permitted emissions for 50 years in just 6½ years!

  10. What does all this mean for the 450ppmv target?

  11. Looking at it graphically …

  12. Plot data from 2000 to 2006

  13. Dip due to September 11th

  14. Assume between now and 2012, emissions … stabilise for all sectors (ex. aviation & shipping) … grow at 2% p.a. below 2003/4 rates for aviation & shipping

  15. Giving a notable rise in emissions between now & 2012

  16. We know that for 450ppmv the area under the curve cannot be greater than 4.8 billion tonnes carbon

  17. … locking the UK into a trajectory with unprecedented annual carbon reductions for ~ 2 decades, starting 2012-14 4.8 billion tonnes carbon

  18. Absolute carbon reduction ~ 9% p.a. Carbon intensity reduction ~ 11% p.a.

  19. … even a 550ppmv trajectory has an emission reduction of ~ 6% p.a from 2015 for 2 decades

  20. What does this trajectory say about emission policies ?

  21. most emissions are released in next 15 yrs 2006

  22. demand 2006 supply & demand

  23. … so where does this leave us? • The trajectory of emission reduction necessary to meet the Government’s 2oC target is far more demanding than is generally recognised. • The current energy debate is ill-informed, with an obsessive focus on supply and almost complete neglect of demand.

  24. To Conclude … 2°C has stark implications for Government • Immediate & stringent action to cut energy demand … alternatively … • Revisit 2°C threshold – perhaps 3°C, or more ? & adapt for highly destructive/catastrophic impacts

  25. No chance for the climate without tackling Aviation

  26. UK & international targets continue to neglect 2 sectors: • International aviation • International shipping • … in the UK & EU aviation is the fastest growing carbon emission source of any sector

  27. Where is the UK in relation to a real 60% target ? For 2004 Total UK International International Real total Aviation Shipping MtC MtC MtC MtC 153 9 ~4-6 ~166-168 • Change in carbon emissions: 1990-2004 • Government claim 4% reduction • Tyndall estimate 0.8-1% reduction (2004) no reduction by 2005?

  28. Looking at this graphically …

  29. 2006 11 MtC

  30. 2006 11 MtC If emissions grow at 7% until 2012, then reduce to 3% between 2012-2050…

  31. 2030 28MtC 2012 17MtC

  32. 2030 56MtC Alternatively, if 7% continues until 2030…

  33. 2°C demands action from all sectors Current aviation growth makes 2°C meaningless (even with emissions trading & so-called ‘offsets’) No option but to dramatically curtail growth?

  34. A message of hope … possible responses to the 2°C target

  35. is there scope for change? The Tyndall scenarios

  36. Has the UK’s energy systemthe capacity to achieve the short-term carbon reductions necessary for the 450 & 550 ppmv trajectories ?

  37. … consider the provision of domestic light: Fuel Production, Extraction &Transport Electricity Consumption Transmission Light Powerstation 10 50 54 120 133 Clearly, …carbon reductions from reducing demand could dwarf reductions from low-carbon supply in all but the long term!

  38. … given this Tyndall produced a range of emission scenarios for 450 and 550ppmv futures

  39. 5 scenarios for 550 ppmv CO2 • Lo-energy demand to Hi-energy supply • All met the ‘real’ 60% target • Range of fossil fuels, nuclear & renewable portfolios • All with buoyant economies 2 scenarios for 450 ppmv CO2 • Lo & Medium energy demand • Both met 450ppmv cumulative emission target • Nuclear phased out by 2030 • All with buoyant economies

  40. Before thinking about tomorrow it’s important to know what today looks like?

  41. 10 30 50 70 Demand (Mtoe) Today household intensive industry non-intensive industry GDP growth ~ 2.5% p.a. Energy demand ~ 170Mtoe … of which electricity ~ 18% nuclear ~ 3.6% public administration commercial domestic aviation international aviation rail road freight private road public road domestic shipping international shipping agriculture construction energy industry

  42. gas nuclear coal oil :Today Today Primary energy demand ~1% renewables nuclear renewables oil renewables oil biofuel coal gas nuclear coal oil nuclear oil oil renew 241 Mtoe coal gas

  43. gas renewables oil nuclear biofuel coal coal gas nuclear oil coal oil nuclear oil renew 241 Mtoe coal : Today Today Primary energy demand ~1% renewables nuclear renewables • ~90% fossil fuels oil oil gas

  44. The Tyndall Scenarios

  45. The Red scenario

  46. 10 30 50 70 Red scenario household intensive industry non-intensive industry • Energy demand ~ 90Mtoe • - half of today • Hi GDP growth • - dominant sector: commercial • Moderate mobility increases • - substantial modal shift • Aviation = efficiency • growth gains public administration commercial domestic aviation international aviation rail road freight private road public road domestic shipping international shipping agriculture construction energy industry Demand (Mtoe)

  47. : Red 2050 Primary energy demand coal renewables biofuel oil gas coal oil 134 Mtoe

  48. coal renewables biofuel oil gas coal 134 Mtoe : Red 2050 Red 2050 Primary energy demand • ~80% fossil fuel • no nuclear and little CCS • 54% electricity (11% onsite) • Transport fuel • oil ~ 82% • H2 ~ 14% • electricity ~ 4%

  49. ThePurple/Pinkscenario

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