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Transition to Democracy

Transition to Democracy. High points of institutional change. Why did Gorbachov fail?. Tried to carry out polit reform before econ. Nationalities problem democratising factories irrelevant didn’t appoint cronies tried to reform from below, not above

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Transition to Democracy

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  1. Transition to Democracy High points of institutional change

  2. Why did Gorbachov fail? • Tried to carry out polit reform before econ. • Nationalities problem • democratising factories irrelevant • didn’t appoint cronies • tried to reform from below, not above • Too much glasnost, not enough perestroika • couldn’t abolish party privilege

  3. Was communism reformable? • China • Yugoslavia • Vietnam • was it communism or Russia that was the problem • Authoritarianism very successful in S.E.Asia

  4. What would reformed communism have looked like? • Single party plus market economy • “guided democracy” [prob. Gorby’s aim] • Revisionist vision • Eurocommunist vision • if it’s multi-party can it be communist? • Don’t confuse Stalinism with communism

  5. Change • “ the revolution occurs when the ruled no longer wish to continue in the old way and the rulers no longer can continue in the old way” Lenin • “if not us, who? If not now, when?” Gorbachov

  6. What happened? • Poland: Solidarity and Lech Walesa • Czechoslovakia: the velvet revolution and Vlaclav Havel • USSR: Yeltsin’s coup and the dissolution of the USSR • Elswhere: was it really the KGB? Or was there really popular revolution?

  7. Why did it happen? • Debt • Moscow lost interest • Peace movement • Telecommunications/ TV • Gorbachov really wanted change from below and encouraged dissent • collapse of colonial government? • Desire for western consumerism

  8. USSR-failure of guided democracy • June 1988: 19th CPSU congress. Gorbachov announces new parliaments and contested elections. • March 1989 elections to Congress of People’s Deputies • Popov forms Inter-regional Deputies group • popular fronts formed in republics

  9. USSR- failure of federalism • Jan 1990 CPSU begins to factionalise • Mar 1990 Lithuania declares independence and Estonia suspends constitution • May 1990 Latvia declares independence. Yeltsin elected head of Russian parliament • July 1990 Yeltsin resigns from CPSU • Feb 1991 referendum on Union • August hardline coup. Yeltsin countercoup

  10. The end of the USSR • Sept- Nov negotiations for new Union Treaty fail • December Ukraine votes for independence in referendum • Yeltsin meets with Belarus and Ukraine [Kravchuk] presidents. Commonwealth of Independent States set up • 25 Dec Gorbachov resigns as president. 31 Dec USSR ceases to exist

  11. What is Democracy? • Regular, contested elections • Alternation of Governments • Rule of Law • freedoms: speech, association press, etc. • pluralism/polycentrism/civil society • privacy

  12. What sort of democracy? • Participative • People’s Democracy • Representative • Liberal • Free market? • Eurocommunist? • Totalitarian /Rousseau-style General will • Fabian one-party

  13. Models of Democracy • British • American • French • Asian • Islamic

  14. Variables • Electoral system and party system • monarchy or republic • uni- or bi-cameral • fusion of executive and legislature • separation of powers • President and prime minister: 4th or 5th Rep • ministers in or out of Assembly

  15. Choosing a system 1: legislature and executive • Presidential or parliamentary? • British model? • US model? • French 4th Republic? • French 5th Republic? • Other European? • Asian?

  16. Choosing 2: electoral system • PR or first past the post? • Constituency size: whole country, German model or multi-member? • Qualification for representation: what proportion of electorate? • How do we want to fix the result? CPs thought single-member constituencies would benefit them. Turned out differently.

  17. Choosing 3: Presidents • Direct or indirect election? • How much power? • Relationship with Prime Minister • Can Prexy dissolve Assembly?

  18. Electoral systems • Poland 1989: • Sejm single-member, 1st past post, but 173/460 reserved for communists,126 for allies, 161 open contest. • Senate 100 seats open contest, multimember constituencies, majority vote. Solidarity won 99.

  19. Electoral systems 2: Bulgaria and Albania • Bulgaria June 1990: 400 deputies, 200 by party list PR, 4% threshold. Communists won 75 with 47.1% • 200 by single-member, Communists won 114 • Albania all 250 single-member. Communists won 169

  20. Hungary 1990 • 386 deputies, 176 in single-member constituencies, but with complex rules. Communists won 1 seat. • 210 party-list PR, with 4% threshold. 152 in districts, 58 at national level. Communists won 10.9% and 14 seats at district level.

  21. Czechoslovakia 1990 • Pr with 5% threshold. Communists second largest party in Czech [13%] and third in Slovak [14%]areas. • Civic Forum largest: 53% of votes; 68/101 seats in Czech areas. • Public Against Violence 33% in Slovakia, Xn Dems 19%

  22. Romania 1990 • PR no threshold 1990, 3% 1992 • National Salvation Front won 66.3% and 263 seats in 1990 • 1992 as Democratic National Salvation Front, they won 28.3% in Senate and 27.7% in Assembly

  23. Russia 1993 • LDPR 22.92% 59 seats plus 5 constits • Russia’s choice 15.51% 40 seats plus 30 • CPRF 12.4% 32 seats plus 16 • Women of Russia 8.13 21 seats plus 2 • Agrarian 7.99 21 seats plus 12 • Yabloko 7.86% 20 seats plus 3 • Others 20% 32 seats plus 10 • 141 independents in constituency seats

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