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TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT FOR NATIONAL POLICY-MAKING IN SLOVENIA. Peter STANOVNIK Institute for Economic Research. VII. Bled Forum on Europe Foresight Conference on Global, European and Regional Governance. Bled, 3. – 4. March 2006.
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TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT FOR NATIONAL POLICY-MAKINGIN SLOVENIA Peter STANOVNIK Institute for Economic Research VII. Bled Forum on Europe Foresight Conference on Global, European and Regional Governance Bled, 3. – 4. March 2006
“The only thing that is certainabout the futureis its uncertainty” • study Key technologies (prepared for Ministry for Science and Technology by prof. M. Kos in 1997) • Foresight-Slotech 2010, conference organised by Ministry for Science and Ministry for Economy, 26. april 2001 • Analysis of key technologies and possibilities of establishing technology networks in Slovenia, IER, 2002 • 1. phase of Technology Foresight conducted by Institute for Economic Research for Ministry for Science and Technology, IER, 2004 CHRONOLOGY OF TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT ACTIVITIES IN SLOVENIA
OBJECTIVES OF EXERCISE IN 2004 • a way of discussing a future • to strengthen a futures-oriented thinking in companies and research organizations • to identify thematic areas of expertise with potential for growth and renewal of manufacturing and service sectors • to collect information and design processes for identifying priority areas in which Slovenia should build expertise (National R&D programme 2006-2010)
METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH • expert panels, Delphi method • identification of 8 technological and societal areas: • information and communication technologies (ICT) • advanced materials • biotechnology, pharmaceuticals, nutrition • environmentally acceptable manufacturing • sustainable construction • traffic and mobility • life-long learning • medicine – care for the elderly • proposal of 40-50 theses in each thematic field (area) • survey involving 474 respondents (from business enterprise sector, public research institutes and individual experts)
SURVEY PROCEDURES The evaluation questions/criteria: • knowledge of the respondent • innovation level of a particular thesis • importance of development (of a particular thesis) for Slovenia • prospects for accomplishment of the thesis within the period of the next 10-15 years • development stage • possibilities for Slovenia for assuring one of the leading positions (within a particular thesis) with regard to its R&D stage • possibilities for Slovenia for assuring one of the leading positions (within a particular thesis) with regard to the organisational transformation (business model) • possibilities for Slovenia for assuring one of the leading positions (within a particular thesis) with regard to the economic use in terms of new products/services • economy’s preparedness and willingness to invest in a particular technological area
PROBLEMS ENCOUNTERED • TF is not a part of the decission-making process (institutional separation) • TF stakeholders are not enough prepared for the technological breakthroughs or technology disruptions • Small critical mass of experts in some areas • Inclusion of politicians, lawyers, media, NGO’s (besides scientists and engineers)
RESULTS AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS - 1 • identification of preliminary technological theses within main thematic areas, for example in ICT: • intelligence in next generations networks • new transport methods and protocols • methodology and test methods for fast software development without errors and object technologies • system security and reliability • broadband systems and convergence of communication systems • bioelectronics • interactive telecommunication services and advanced for interfaces users • intelligent microsystems in one chip • scientific and technical translation systems • optoelectronics and high definition (resolution) displays
RESULTS AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS - 2 • continuation of dialogue between experts in public research and private business sectors • analytical background for preparation of calls for technology programmes and for applied research projects • follow-up activities (2. and 3. round of Delphi approach) • closer co-operation among ministries and agencies (Agency for Technology, Agency for Scientific research, Agency for Entrepreneurship and FDI)