Mapping lifelong learning needs and responses in the context of the Economic Crisis in the EU

1. Mapping lifelong learning needs and responses in the context of the Economic Crisis in the EU Interim Report Presentation Daniela Ulicna Gothenburg (Sweden) 2 October2009

2. Impact on employment • Across Europe the nbr of unemployed grew by 5.4m (21.5m in March 2009) • In some countries the growth was more than 5 percentage points (Estonia, Spain, Ireland, Lithuania and Latvia) • Some other countries less than one percentage point (Austria, Germany or the Netherlands)

3. Unemployment rate 2Q2009 (%) – seasonally adjusted Source: Eurostat

4. Most affected groups of population: • Men (contrary to the trend worldwide): growth in male unemployment steeper than female (almost twice) • Young people and especially young men: • 5m young people unemployed • Growth by 4.8 percentage points for young people in general • Young men – growth by 6 percentage points (3.4 for young women) • Low skilled • Migrants

5. Most affected sectors: • Among industrial groupings: intermediate goods and construction – decrease in employment by 7.9% and 6.9% • Sectors: • textile, leather and wearing apparel manufacturing over 10% decrease in employment • These are sectors that were already restructuring prior to the crisis • Services know lesser decrease – most concerned administrative and support sectors (-4.1%) and accommodation and food (-2.1%);

6. Public budgets Difference in total government expenditure and revenue in 1Q2008 and 1Q2009 (as % of GDP) and growth of debt 1Q2008 and 1Q2009 (as % of GDP) Source: Eurostat

7. Impact on participation in ET • Possibly negative impact on pre-school education • Growth in demand for post-compulsory ET  especially HE • But unlikely to have any positive influence on early school leaving • Increased demand for continuing training  result of public initiatives

8. Issues related to these impacts • Need to avoid that children from most vulnerable families miss-out on pre-school education • Increased HE participation – will students be able to pay for it? • Continuing training – will the training provision be flexible enough? Will it be adapted and effective?

9. Impact on provision of ET • Increased interest in teaching profession • At the same time some countries envisage/ fear job cuts • HE provision will most likely remain unchanged (maybe bigger classes) • Continuing training: important differences exist across countries in development of this provision – will it raise??? • Pressure on guidance services

10. Impact on financing of ET • Households budgets might decrease; • Employers’ provision of apprenticeships – decrease (unless subsidised); • Employers’ investment in training of active workforce - ?? • Public financing - ?? • If the trend remains the same as till now (expenditure as % of GDP) than de facto decrease: • Some countries announce cuts: CZ, NL, IT, LV, RO • Others growth: SE

11. EU measures • EU Recovery plan (€200,000m and call for smart investment) • European Social Fund – reprogramming, stepping up advance payments, temporarily no need for co-financing: • Accelerating €19 billion of planned funding to help people to stay in work or move towards new jobs, through upgrading skills, encouraging entrepreneurship and improving public employment services under the European Social Fund. For the period 2009-2010, the Commission can reimburse Member States' declared expenditure at a rate of 100%. That means there is no need for national co-funding so that projects that help people can be put in place more quickly. • Steering national subsidies: towards general and transferable skills, achievement of a qualification, specific target groups

12. Anti-crisis packages • Maintaining employment (e.g. temporary unemployment, reduced working times); • Modernising capacities of public employment services (e.g. public private partnerships); • Increasing access to labour market (e.g. temporary rebates on social security contributions); • Supporting household revenues (e.g. additional support to income, mortgage protection) • Training measures (AT, BG, EL, DE, FI, FR, HU, PT, RO, SI, SE, UK): • E.g. Sweden – 75,500 additional training places at different levels • E.g. Portugal – traineeships, dual training for unemployed, support to those who have increased their qualifications

13. Measures in anti-crisis packages – 29 OECD countries Source: OECD 2009 Employment Outlook

14. Concrete measures • Young people at risk of dropping out - ? – France has created a specific fund (€961m) • VET: priority in securing apprenticeship placements (e.g. NL, PT, UK) • HE: opening up or funding of additional places (e.g. IE, SE, SK, UK)

15. Education and Training as elements of Flexicurity in times of crisis Source: GHK, CERGE-EI and Madsen 2009

16. Continuing training • Preventive measures: • Reduced working time combined with training (AT, DE, HU, IE, NL, UK) • Subsidised training (BE, CZ, EL, SI, UK) • Extension of educational leave (AT, BE) • Unemployment work transition: • Several countries extend existing ALMP programmes (FI,NL,UK); • New measures (AT, BG, IT, PT, SE)