Joint Hurricane Test Bed (JHT) 2005 IHC Update

1. USWRP Joint Hurricane Test Bed (JHT) 2005 IHC Update Dr. Jiann-Gwo JiingJHT DirectorTechnical Support Branch Chief, TPC/NHC9 March 2005

2. Outline • First Round Projects (FY01-02) • Second Round Projects (FY03-04) • Third Round Projects (FY05) • JHT Website and Outreach Activities

3. JHT First Round (FY01-02) ProjectsAccepted in 2003 by TPC and NCEP for Operational Implementation AMSU intensity and size estimates GFDL Hurricane Model upgrades TC rainfall climatology and persistence (R-CLIPER) model Probability of rapid intensification New SHIPS model predictors

4. Factors Considered in TPC Decisionson Operational Implementation(Applied to decisions on all Round One and Two projects completed to date) • Forecast or Analysis Benefit: expected improvement in operational forecast and/or analysis accuracy • Efficiency: adherence to forecaster time constraints and ease of use needs • Compatibility: IT compatibility with operational hardware, software, data, communications, etc. • Sustainability: availability of resources to operate, upgrade, and/or provide support

5. Status of 15 Second Round Projects (FY03-04) • 15 projects were initially funded late in FY03 • 12 two-year and 3 one-year projects • PIs presented updates at 58th IHC (Mar 2004) • Real-time testing and evaluation during 2004 hurricane season • Three one-year projects concluded (Aug 2004) • JHT reports to TPC/NHC Director (Nov 2004) • Two projects accepted by TPC/NHC Director for operational implementation • 12 two-year projects renewed for a second year (FY04 funding) • Testing and evaluation to continue during 2005 hurricane season • Decisions on operational implementation in late 2005

6. General Timetable for Round Three Projects (FY05 Funding) • Special evening session at AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology (May 2004) • JHT Announcement of Federal Funding Opportunity (AFFO) published June 2004 • Solicited proposals for new, third round projects (FY05 funding) • Review of full proposals completed January 2005 • Final selection and funding to be completed during March-April 2005 • Real-time testing and evaluation during 2005 hurricane season (and in 2006 for renewed two-year projects) • Decisions in 2006 or 2007 on operational implementation

7. New Aspects to FY05 Announcement • Updated TPC and EMC prioritized forecast improvement needs • Revised proposal review criteria • Explicit listing of criteria used by TPC for decisions on operational implementation

8. FY05 JHT Proposal Review Criteria (Condensed) • Relevance to program goals (40 pts) • Research maturity (10 pts) • Priority-to-payoff factors (25 pts) • Other agency use (5 pts) • Technical merit (40 pts) • Risk-to-payoff factors (10 pts) • Testing (10 pts) • Operational usage (10 pts) • Technical compatibility (10 pts) • Overall qualification of applicants (10 pts) • Project costs (10 pts)

9. FY05 Review Process • Preapplications (Letters of Intent) reviewed in Aug 2004 • 40 preapplications reviewed • 18 recommended to submit a full proposal • Full proposals reviewed during Nov 2004 – Jan 2005 • 19 proposals reviewed • Proposals independently reviewed and scored by 7 JHT Steering Committee members based upon review criteria listed in the AFFO

10. FY05 Selection Process • Total available funding $1.2 million • Reviewers’ scores used to produce a rank ordering of the proposals by overall mean total scores • After normalizing by each individual reviewer’s mean total score • TPC and JHT Directors (and EMC Director for model-related projects) recommend funding top 15 proposals • Rank order unchanged from review scoring results • Funding maximum number of proposals given available funds • Funding approval in progress • Approximate funded work period April 2005-April 2006 • Two-year projects initially funded for one year, and will be reviewed after first year for a second year of funding

11. Third Round (FY05)Project Focus Areas(Pending Final Funding Approval)

12. 2nd Round (FY03) Funding DistributionTotal $1.35 M Private Companies 2% Navy (NPS, NRL) 15% NOAA 49% State and Private Universities 34%

13. 3rd Round (FY05) Funding DistributionTotal $1.2M Private Companies 9% Navy (NPS, NRL) 16% NOAA 39% State and Private Universities 36%

14. JHT Website www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/jht

15. JHT Outreach Presentations • NWS regional marine and tropical workshops (March-April 2004) • National Hurricane Conference (April 2004) • AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology (May 2004) • NOAA Hurricane Conference (December 2004) • AMS Annual Meeting (January 2005)

16. Acknowledgements • JHT Steering Committee • Richard Knabb, TPC SOO and JHT Admin. Asst. • Chris Landsea, AOML/HRD and JHT Admin. Asst. • Alison Krautkramer, JHT IT Specialist • JHT principal investigators and other funded participants • Ward Seguin and John Gaynor (USWRP) • TPC and EMC forecaster and technical points of contact • TPC/TSB IT staff • TPC/NHC admin staff www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/jht

17. Supplemental Slides

18. Second Round (FY03-04)Project Focus Areas

19. Input for JHT Project Reportsto the TPC Director • Project PI final report • JHT staff members’ assessments • TPC Point of Contact (POC) feedback • JHT IT Facilitator report • IT transfer status • Compatibility and support issues • Estimates of costs to implement and support • Input from TPC Technical Support Branch Chief

20. Status of 10 First Round Projects (FY01-02) • Ten projects were funded in FY01 • One was denied second year funding • Six were accepted for operational • implementation • Decisions on two projects were deferred until • the completion of closely related new projects • One was not accepted for operational • implementation at this time

21. JHT Issues (2004) • Perceptions • Lack of initial fairness and openness • Addressed by the JHT Federal Register Notices in 2003 and 2005 • NOAA laboratories have an unfair advantage over non-NOAA research institutions • More than half of the funds awarded in FY 03 went to non-NOAA institutions (even greater non-NOAA funding expected in 2005) • JHT Steering Committee comprises four non-NOAA members and three NOAA members • Heavy workload for TPC • 27 projects will be active during at least part of 2005 season • Intended to be the only year with overlap of two project rounds • Impact on administrative, technical, and operations staff • TPC and JHT staffs are identifying ways to streamline and delegate work, based on lessons learned from completion of a full first round of projects, and a partial second round

22. JHT Issues continued • IT compatibility • Potential lack of resources for operational implementation of beneficial, cutting-edge techniques • Will seek funding to implement such techniques as needs arise • Funding cycle and schedule • Lengthy process from announcement of opportunity to dispersal of funds to non-NOAA participants • NOAA is addressing the grants applications and awards process • First two rounds asynchronous with hurricane season (would be highly desirable for projects to not miss a hurricane season) • Earlier release of FY05 announcement of opportunity