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NOAA, National Weather Service Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center Briefing

NOAA, National Weather Service Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center Briefing. 11:30am June 7, 2013. Key Messages.

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NOAA, National Weather Service Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center Briefing

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  1. NOAA, National Weather ServiceMiddle Atlantic River Forecast Center Briefing 11:30am June 7, 2013

  2. Key Messages • Official river forecasts are calling for moderate flooding at 1 pt in NJ and minor flooding at 7 pts in NJ, Southeast PA & the Lower James River basin in Virginia. Many other points are forecast to rise above their caution stages in the Potomac, James, Appomattox, Passaic, Raritan and Lower Delaware River basins. • None of the MARFC points are in flood at this time. However, the James River at Scottsville is above its’ action or caution stage now. • Forecasts will be closely monitored and updated through this event. Check http://water.weather.govfor the latest info.

  3. Timing of rain & flooding • Rain from Andrea continues to fall over the Mid-Atlantic region today. • Timing of river flooding is today and through the weekend. This is the latest forecast for the path of the center of Andrea. Remember, storm impacts, particularly heavy rains and flooding can occur hundreds of miles from the storm path.

  4. Rain on the ground in the past 6 hours • Rain during the past 6 hours has been heaviest in the Middle and Lower James, Delaware, Passaic and Raritan River basins. Amounts in these areas have been over an inch and a half in spots.

  5. Rain on the ground in the past 48 hours • This is the total amount of rainfall we’ve received over the past 48 hours. • Portions of the Upper James River basin have had over 3”.

  6. Additional Rain • This is the 72 hour rainfall forecast from 8am today through the entire remainder of the event for Andrea. • On the following slide is a graphic showing the entire rainfall from Andrea across the U.S.

  7. River Forecasts • Moderate flooding is forecast on the Millstone River at Blackwells Mills, NJ • Minor flooding is forecast on the: • Saddle River at Lodi, NJ • Passaic River at Pine Brook, NJ • Pequannock River at Macopin, NJ • Brandywine Creek at Chadds Ford, PA • North Branch Rancocas Creek at Pemberton, NJ • Neshaminy Creek at Langhorne, PA • James River at Richmond-Westham, VA Several points in the Passaic, Raritan, Upper Delaware, Lower Potomac, James and Appomattox River basins are expected to rise above their caution or action stages. Red indicates Moderate Flooding, Orange is Minor Flooding, Yellow is above caution or action stage.

  8. Timing of Flooding • Most crests will occur tonight and Saturday. The lower Appomattox River will not crest until Monday. • All river flooding is expected to be over by the end of the weekend.

  9. Flood Outlook • The Flood Outlook looks at the possibility for significant flooding. Although our official forecasts are only calling for isolated minor & moderate flooding, there is enough uncertainty that you should prepare for the possibility of significant flooding in this region today through Sunday. • Headwaters and smaller streams are especially vulnerable to these larger rises.

  10. MARFC Status • MARFC began 24 hour operations 6am Thursday. • Delaware, Passaic, Raritan, Potomac, Rappahannock & James River forecasts will definitely be updated again this afternoon (by 4pm). • All river forecasts continue to be monitored and updated as needed through the end of this event. • MARFC is actively coordinating with our NWS Weather Forecast Offices and partners.

  11. Remember • MARFC graphics & info do not contain the entire flood threat. See info from your local NWS Weather Forecast Office for watches & warnings, flash flooding, storm surge, etc..

  12. Flood Inundation Maps • Excellent resource to understand your flood risk. Can be used to plan evacuation routes & travel. • Available at http://water.weather.gov for these points: • Saddle River at Lodi, NJ • West Branch Susquehanna River at Jersey Shore, PA • Delaware River at: • Matamoras/Port Jervis • Belvidere • Easton • Frenchtown • New Hope/Lambertville • Riegelsville • Stockton • Trenton Others are available at http://maps.srbc.net/simv/

  13. Need more info? • Contact your local NWS Weather Forecast Office • Binghamton, NY http://weather.gov/bgm • Blacksburg, VA http://weather.gov/rnk • Mt Holly, NJ http://weather.gov/phi • State College, PA http://weather.gov/ctp • New York City, NY http://weather.gov/okx • Sterling, VA http://weather.gov/lwx • Wakefield, VA http://weather.gov/akq

  14. Find MARFC Online at: • Homepage: http://weather.gov/marfc • Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.MARFC.gov • Twitter @NWSMARFC

  15. Next MARFC Briefing The next MARFC briefing slide package will be sent between 4 and 5pm today.

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