1 / 25

Dr. Witada Aunkoonwattaka Trade and Investment Division, ESCAP anukoonwattaka@un

ASEAN in the global economy & Laos economic changes Workshop on “Lao PDR towards AEC 2015” 19 and 21 February 2013, Lao PDR. Dr. Witada Aunkoonwattaka Trade and Investment Division, ESCAP anukoonwattaka@un.org. 2. The region of huge potential. 3. Source: ASEAN Community in Figures 2011.

kuniko
Download Presentation

Dr. Witada Aunkoonwattaka Trade and Investment Division, ESCAP anukoonwattaka@un

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. ASEAN in the global economy & Laos economic changesWorkshop on “Lao PDR towards AEC 2015”19 and 21 February 2013, Lao PDR Dr. Witada Aunkoonwattaka Trade and Investment Division, ESCAP anukoonwattaka@un.org

  2. 2

  3. The region of huge potential 3 Source: ASEAN Community in Figures 2011

  4. The region of economic divide GDP per capita by ASEAN states Source: ASEAN Economic Community Chartbook 2011

  5. The region of high trade dependence 5 Source: ASEAN Community in Figures 2011

  6. ….But, limited intra-ASEAN trade Source: ASEAN Economic Community Chartbook 2011 Extra-ASEAN trade remains playing a dominant role..

  7. …and limited intra-ASEAN investment 7 Source: ASEAN Community in Figures 2011

  8. What are the implications? • High diversity : Integrating the markets will be very difficult. • Limited intra-ASEAN trade & investment: intra-ASEAN market Integration is not a major driver of ASEAN Integration. • AEC with free movement of goods, services, skilled labour, and freer movement of capital: AEC will bring “production integration” more than market integration

  9. ASEAN IPN for Automobiles 9

  10. Made in the World Source: Meng and Miroudot, based on Xing and Detert (2010)) 10

  11. Reflected in sources of investment, 11 Source: ASEAN Community in Figures 2011

  12. …in country we trade, 12 Source: ASEAN Community in Figures 2011

  13. …. in products we trade 13 Source: ASEAN Community in Figures 2011

  14. Loa PDR: Economic changes

  15. A decade of robust growth Source: Base on data from CEIC

  16. Robust export performance Source: Base on UNcomtrade data from WITS

  17. Increasing openness Source: Base on IMF data from CEIC

  18. Heavy reliance on natural resource Source: Base on UNcomtrade data from WITS

  19. Crowding out manufacturing exports Source: Base on UNcomtrade data from WITS

  20. What lies ahead with a membership in WTO and AEC? • Higher degree of economic openness • Increasing trade dependence (within the ASEAN and ASEAN+6 but perhaps even wider?) • Inflows of FDI • Natural resources and hydro electricity • Light manufacturing • Tourism • Agriculture • Higher export revenue • Driven mainly by mining and electricity exports

  21. Challenges • Will Lao PDR be fitted into the “Factory of Asia”? • Real value is productivity gains • Fighting the natural resource curse • Volatility of mining commodity prices • Real exchange rate appreciation • Crowding out manufacturing • Fiscal over-spending in response to high revenue • Rent seeking and corruptions • Increasing inequality

  22. Way forward • Powering development with resource income • Efficient logistics • Hard and soft infrastructure • Human capital development • Create attractive and competitive environment for FDI • Improving institution mechanisms • Remove barriers to trade and investment • Prudential macro-management • Structural budget rules • Well-managed foreign exchange reserve • Using financial derivatives to control volatility

  23. Thank you http://www.unescap.org/tid/ti_report2012/download/index.asp

  24. Appendix

  25. Service exports Source: Base on WTO service-trade data

More Related