Long-Run Growth ( 長期成長)

1. Long-Run Growth(長期成長) 講授﹕黃璿芳

2. Economic Growth(經濟成長) • Economic growth refers to an increase in the total output of an economy(指一經濟體內實質總產出,暨實質GDP,的增加）. Defined by some economists as the increase of real GDP per capita(平均每位國民實質GDP的增加）. • Modern economic growth is the period of rapid and sustained increase in real output per capita that began in the Western World with the Industrial Revolution.(現代經濟的成長；指自西歐工業革命以來至今的期間內，實質產出不斷快速成長的現象。)

3. Industrial Revolution • 經濟史學家給某些國家在經濟和社會組織上發生重大變動的時期所取的名稱。 • 首先是指英國從1750-1850期間, • 後又指歐洲大陸上某些國家從1830年起， • 美國從1860年起， • 日本從1870年起，及 • 俄國從1990年起 • 在這段時期家庭作坊制度為工廠所取代， • 工業革命在英國是從各種機器的發明、蒸汽動力的採用、勞動分工、公路、鐵路和運河交通的發展開始， • 在此時期，亞當‧斯密、馬爾薩斯和李嘉圖等放任主義學說出現、 海外市場的開闢、工人人平均產量大幅上升，以及生活水平的普遍提高。

4. 為何經濟會成長? • Colleen and Bill on an island 的例子 Agriculture and simple shelter Shifted their resources into building a more comfortable home. Physical capital has been accumulated: a better house, tools, and a water system. Human capital has been accumulated: knowledge, skills and talents. At any given time, they face limits on what they could produce. This limits were imposed by the existing state of their technical knowledge and the resources at their disposal. Over time, they expanded their production possibilities, developed new technologies, accumulated capital, and made their labor more productive.

5. Economic Growth Shifts PPF(經濟成長移動生產可能疆界) A’ • The production possibility frontier(生產可能疆界):shows all the combinations of output that can be produced if all society’s scarce resources are fully and efficiently employed. a1 B’ A a2 B • Economic growth shifts society’s production possibility frontier up and to the right. b1 b2

6. The Growth Process:From Agriculture to Industry (經濟成長的過程：由農業至工業) • Before the Industrial Revolution in Great Britain, every society in the world was agrarian.(在大不列顛國工業革命發生之前，世界各地皆處在農業社會的狀態。) • Beginning in England around 1750, technical change and capital accumulation increased productivity in two important industries: agriculture and textiles.(工業革命均在1750年起始於英格蘭，當時由於技術的變化和資本的累積，使得農業和紡織業的生產力大為增加。) • More could be produced with fewer resources, leading to new products, more output, and wider choice.

7. The Sources of Economic Growth(經濟成長的原動力) • An aggregate production function(總體的生產函數): is the mathematical representation of the relationship between inputs and national output, or gross domestic product.(以數學的方式表達出一國的投入生產要素與產出間的關係。) • If you think of GDP as a function of both labor and capital, i.e., Y = A F(L, K, H) • you can see that an increase in Real GDP (Y) can come about through: • An increase in the labor supply, L (來自於勞動力供給的增加) • An increase in physical or human capital, K or H (物質資本或人力資本的增加) • An increase in total factor productivity, A (總要素生產力,或稱技術變動,的增加)

8. An Increase in Labor Supply(增加勞動力的供給) • An increasing labor supply can generate more output, but if the capital stock remains fixed, the new labor will be less productive (diminishing returns).(如果其他生產要素的投入數量不變，則隨著勞動力投入數量增加，最終將使得額外再投入一單位的勞動力，所額外帶來的產出逐漸遞減，呈現邊際報酬遞減的現象。) • 例﹕爸爸的工廠由10人=>11人, 產出由1000雙鞋子=>1050雙鞋子, Q/L由100雙鞋子 => 95雙鞋子 • Thomas Malthus and David Ricardo predicted a gloomy future as population outstripped the land’s capacity to produce. However, they forgot the impact of technological change and capital accumulation.

9. Labor Productivity(生產力) Labor Productivity(生產力)= Output per worker hour. Q L

10. Economic Growth Froman Increase in Labor • Growth in the labor force, without a corresponding increase in the capital stock or technological change might lead to growth of output but declining productivity.

11. Economic Growth Froman Increase in Labor 註：Labor force=employment+unemployment

12. Increases in Physical Capital(物質資本的增加) • An increase in the stock of capital can increase output, even if it is not accompanied by an increase in the labor force.(當其他生產要素的投入不變時，增資物質資本存量，可增加產出。)

13. Increases in Physical Capital (物質資本的增加) • The increase in capital stock is the difference between gross investment and depreciation , i.e., Capital stock = accumulated gross investment - depreciation • Capital has been increasing faster than the labor force since 1960. When capital expands more rapidly than labor, the ratio of capital to labor (K/L) increases, and this too is a source of increasing productivity.

14. Increases in Physical Capital

15. Human Capital(人力資本) 工人的知識和技能由受教育、受訓練或經驗中所獲得。

16. Increases in Human Capital(增加人力資本：美國人民受教育的狀況)

17. Increases in Productivity(增加生產力) • Growth that cannot be explained by increases in the quantity of inputs can be explained only by an increase in the productivity of those inputs.(未能以投入要素的數量增加來解釋成長的部份，將之解釋為是由生產力增加才造成的成長。) • Factors that affect the productivity of an input include technological change, other advances in knowledge, and economies of scale.(每種投入要素皆有其生產力，影響投入要素生產力的因素包括科技的變動，知識的增進和規模經濟等。)

18. Productivity的衡量方式 • Labor Productivity(生產力)：output per worker hour. • Total factor Productivity(總要素生產力) Y=A F(L，K，H) Y表GDP(output) A表總要素生產力 L表勞動力 K表物質資本 H表人力資本

19. 科技變化促使生產力提升 • Technological change affects productivity in two stages: • Invention(發明)：First there is an advance in knowledge, or an invention.(例如：愛因斯坦的相對論。) • Innovation(創新)：The use of new knowledge to produce a new product or to produce an existing product more efficiently. • There are capital-saving innovations, and labor-saving innovations.(創新有可分為兩種：節省資本的創新和節省勞動力的創新。)

20. Economics of scale (規模經濟促使生產力提升) • Economics of scale(規模經濟)隨著公司的生產量增加，長期平均總成本下降的特性。 • 規模經濟促使生產力提升的原因有許多種，例如： 公司若設立一個新廠，若其地點可進一步減低運輸成本； 研發的支出和在職訓練的方案，也可因為公司規模加大而使平均研發和在職訓練的成本下降。 若平均總成本下降，則平均$1的投入所產生的產出就高。

21. Other influences on productivity(其他影響生產力的因素) • 近年來，政府為了保護環境，以法規要求廠商減低對空氣和水的污染，廠商為了達到政府的要求，將其部份資本與勞動用於減輕污染上，因此，減低了衡量出的生產力。 • 近年來，政府為了保護勞工的安全和健康，也以法規要求廠商要增加對勞工發生意外的防範，和健康的保險，廠商為了達到政府的要求，將部份的生產要素投入於對勞工的安全和健康的保護，因此也減低的衡量出的生產力。

22. Growth and Output in the United States(美國的成長和產出)

23. Growth and Output in the Selected countries

24. Sources of Growth in the U.S. Economy, 1929 – 1982(美國經濟成長的來源) 註：the Great Depression發生在1929~1935，一次世界大戰1914~1918；二次世界大戰1939- 1945，第一次石油危機1973。

25. Labor Productivity, 1952 – 2000(勞工生產力) 註：第一次石油危機發生在1973，第二次石油危機在1981。

26. Labor Productivity, 1952 – 2000 • Some of the explanations for the slowdown in productivity growth in the 1970s include: • a low rate of saving • increased environmental and government regulations • lack of spending in R&D • high energy costs • However, many of these factors turned around in the 1980s and 1990s yet productivity growth remained low.

27. Economic Growth and Public Policy(經濟成長和公共政策) • Policy provisions to improve the quality of education include the new Education Individual Retirement Account that allows savings to earn tax free returns as long as the balance is used to pay for educational expenses. • Policies to increase the saving rate include individual retirement accounts that accumulate earnings without paying income tax.

28. Economic Growth and Public Policy • The amount of capital accumulation is ultimately constrained by its rate of saving. • The tax system and the social security system in the United States are biased against saving. • Some public finance economists favor shifting to a system of consumption taxation rather than income taxation to reduce the tax burden on saving.

29. Economic Growth and Public Policy • Other public policies to stimulate economic growth include: • policies to stimulate investment • policies to increase research and development • reduced regulations • industrial policy, or government involvement in the allocation of capital across manufacturing sectors.

30. The Pro-Growth Argument(贊成成長的理論) • Advocates of growth believe growth is progress. • New technologies and production methods lead to new and better products. Capital accumulation and new technology improve the quality of life. • In 1995, real GDP per capita was more than twice what it was in 1950. Since the 1950s, incomes have grown twice as fast as prices.

31. The Pro-Growth Argument • Advocates of growth believe growth is progress. • Growth gives us more choices. • New technologies and production methods lead to new and better products. Capital accumulation and new technology improve the quality of life. • Since the 1950s, incomes have grown twice as fast as prices so we can buy that much more.

32. The Pro-Growth Argument • Growth saves the most valuable commodity—time. • Growth also improves the quality of things that yield satisfaction directly. • Growth produces jobs and higher incomes. With higher incomes we can better afford the sacrifices needed to help the poor. • When population growth is not accompanied by growth in output, unemployment and poverty increase.

33. The Anti-Growth Argument(反成長的論點) • Growth has negative effects on the quality of life. • Growth encourages the creation of artificial needs. • Growth means the rapid depletion of a finite quantity of resources. • Growth requires an unfair income distribution and propagates it.

34. 中華民國經濟成長(按1996年價格計算) 年別 GDP(NT$ million) 經濟成長率(%) 平均每人所得(%) 每人所得成長率(%) 1951 187,591 - 21,982 - 1963 474,423 9.35 37,685 7.26 1964 532,300 11.20 41,380 9.80 1965 591,569 11.13 43,873 6.02 1966 644,293 8.91 46,608 6.24 1967 713,307 10.71 50,293 7.90 1968 778,724 9.17 53,630 6.64 1969 848,408 8.95 57,539 7.29 1970 944,878 11.37 62,516 8.65 1971 1,066,722 12.90 68,834 10.11 1972 1,208,783 13.32 76.301 10.85 1973 1,363,900 12,83 84,128 10.26

35. 中華民國經濟成長(按1996年價格計算) 年別 GDP(NT$ million) 經濟成長率(%) 平均每人所得(NT$) 每人所得成長率(%) 1974 1,379,747 1.16 82,264 -2.22 1975 1,447,748 4.93 83,989 2.10 1976 1,648,416 13.86 94,072 12.00 1977 1,846,383 10.19 101,044 7.41 1978 2,063,299 13.59 110,999 9.85 1979 2,231,953 8.17 118,256 6.54 1980 2,394,914 7.30 122,379 3.49 1981 2,542,505 6.16 125,263 2.36 1982 2,632,796 3.55 128,310 2.43 1983 2,855,186 8.45 137,050 6.81 1984 3,157,823 10.60 150,769 10.01 1985 3,314,214 4.95 156,783 3.99

36. 中華民國經濟成長(按1996年價格計算) 年別 GDP(NT$ million) 經濟成長率 (%) 平均每人所得 (NT$) 每人所得成長率(%) 1998 8,565,134 4.57 368.685 4.38 1999 9,029,704 5.42 379,533 2.94 2000 9,558,698 5.86 389,637 2.66 2001 9,523,039 -0.37 389,122 -0.13 資料來源：行政院主計處國民所得統計(2002)。