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Madan M. Dey Kehar Singh Carole R. Engle Aquaculture/Fisheries Center

IMPACT OF MARKETING, TRADE AND EXCHANGE RATE POLICIES ON U.S. CATFISH MARKETS: RESULTS FROM US-Catfish MODEL. Madan M. Dey Kehar Singh Carole R. Engle Aquaculture/Fisheries Center University of Arkansas at Pine Bluff. Why Economic Modeling?. U.S. industries have matured Affected by:

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Madan M. Dey Kehar Singh Carole R. Engle Aquaculture/Fisheries Center

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  1. IMPACT OF MARKETING, TRADE AND EXCHANGE RATE POLICIES ON U.S. CATFISH MARKETS: RESULTS FROM US-Catfish MODEL Madan M. Dey Kehar Singh Carole R. Engle Aquaculture/Fisheries Center University of Arkansas at Pine Bluff

  2. Why Economic Modeling? • U.S. industries have matured • Affected by: • Dynamics of global economy • Federal, state policies • International trade • Other segments of U.S. agriculture benefit from economic models.

  3. Southern Regional Aquaculture Center Funded a project to Develop Economic Models of U.S. catfish & trout

  4. Policy Export Production Import Consumption Biological Environment Policy Aquaculture Technology Policy, Institutions & Support Services Consumers’ Profile Producers’ Profile US-Catfish Model: General Framework

  5. US-Catfish Model U.S. farm-raised catfish Imported channel catfish Imported basa and tra Different Products

  6. Policy Options Considered • Changes in Catfish feed prices • Effects of TCI advertising expenditures • Effects of various anti-dumping tariff levels • Effect of COOL (Country of Origin Labeling) • Changes in U.S. per capita income • Changes in exchange rates with U.S. $

  7. Behavioral Equations/Models

  8. Behavioral Equations/Models • Farmers • Processors • Consumers • Exporters/Importers

  9. FARM-RAISED CATFISH SUPPLY EQUATION

  10. CONSUMER DEMAND (SHARE) EQUATIONS

  11. IMPORT DEMAND EQUATIONS

  12. PROCESSORS’ SUPPLY EQUATIONS

  13. PROCESSORS’ DEMAND OF U.S. FRAM-RAISED CATFISH EQUATION

  14. Impact of Policies

  15. Effects of Changes in Feed Prices A decrease in feed price would benefit the U.S. farm-raised catfish industry along with marginal gains to imported channel catfish and basa/tra.

  16. Effects of Changes in TCI Advertisement Expenditure An increase in TCI expenditures would benefit U.S. farm-raised catfish marginally; however, it would reduce imports significantly.

  17. Effects of Changes in Tariff on Basa/Tra Imported channel catfish would benefit more than U.S. farm-raised catfish with an increase in tariff levels on basa/tra imported from Vietnam

  18. Effects of COOL COOL has benefited U.S. farm-raised catfish marginally, but has hurt channel catfish imports significantly. COOL has resulted in an increase in U.S. consumers and farmers’ surplus; however, U.S. processors’ surplus have declined marginally.

  19. Effects of Changes in U.S. Per Capita Income Increase in U.S. per capita income would have a positive impact on the catfish industry as a whole, with a greater positive impact on imported channel catfish and imported basa/tra.

  20. Effects of Changes in Exchange Rates • Increased Exchange Rate (VND/USD): • Increase basa/tra imports • Decrease channel catfish import • Marginally expand U.S. farm-raised catfish market

  21. Thanks to SRAC for financial support Thank you for your attentionWould appreciate your Feedback

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