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Conditional Probability

Conditional Probability. Conditional Probability. The probability of an event A, given the occurrence of some other event B:. Ex: A card is selected from a standard 52 card deck. If a red card is selected, what is the probability it is a King?. Given (B). Desired (A). Example 1.

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Conditional Probability

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  1. Conditional Probability

  2. Conditional Probability The probability of an event A, given the occurrence of some other event B: Ex: A card is selected from a standard 52 card deck. If a red card is selected, what is the probability it is a King? Given (B) Desired (A)

  3. Example 1 On the midway at the county fair, there are many popular games to play. One of them is “Flip to Spin or Roll.” You start by flipping a coin. If heads comes up, you get to spin the big wheel, which has ten equal sectors: three red, three blue, and four yellow. If the coin shows tails, you get to roll a cube with three red sides, two yellow sides, and one blue side. If your spin lands on blue, or if the blue side of the cube comes up, you win a stuffed animal. Suppose that you know that Tyler won a stuffed animal. Figure out what the probability that he started off with heads.

  4. Example 1: Area Model Wheel Find the probabilities. R B Y H HR HB HY COIN T TR TB TY If you make an area diagram, it is ok to scale the lengths differently. R B Y Cube

  5. Example 2 A survey of 500 adults asked about college expenses. The survey asked questions about whether or not the person had a child in college and about the cost of attending college. Results are shown in the table below: Cost too Much Child in College Given Suppose one person is chosen at random. Given that the person has a child in college, what is the probability that he or she ranks the cost of attending college as “cost too much”? child in college cost too much Desired

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