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Towards modelling frameworks for sustainable development

Towards modelling frameworks for sustainable development. David Mell, NERIP TWRI Modelling and Forecasting Workshop 28 January 2008. Towards modelling frameworks for sustainable development – a specific case. Starting point is the framework used for the RSS Provides linkages between

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Towards modelling frameworks for sustainable development

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  1. Towards modelling frameworks for sustainable development David Mell, NERIP TWRI Modelling and Forecasting Workshop 28 January 2008

  2. Towards modelling frameworks for sustainable development – a specific case • Starting point is the framework used for the RSS • Provides linkages between • The economy • The size of the resident population and its housing requirement • Original framework was not transparent • Originators (cebr) provided outputs only • Framework has been inferred

  3. The growth assumptions will vary from one sector to another. Applied to the current economy, the assumptions create a future economic scenario. The scenario is simply an expression of the mix of the economy in future years. Economic Scenario A Modelling Framework GVA Growth Assumptions

  4. Productivity = GVA/FTE. The productivity assumptions represent views about how each sector’s productivity will change over time. In conjunction with the economic scenario, the productivity assumptions determine the size of the labour force in each sector. Labour Force Required by Sector A Modelling Framework GVA Growth Assumptions Economic Scenario Productivity Assumptions

  5. Sector skills assumptions represent the profiles of skills required in each sector. At its simplest this is % with Level 1, % with Level 2,… etc. Together with the Labour Force requirement the sector skills assumption generates a view of the labour force required by Skills levels Labour Force Required by Skills Levels A Modelling Framework GVA Growth Assumptions Economic Scenario Labour Force Required by Sector Productivity Assumptions Sector Skills Assumptions

  6. The Spatial Analysis is based on notions of the likelihood of sectors being located in particular places. Typically this involves the use of location quotients. Spatial analysis provides a view of where the labour force will be located. Labour Force by Location A Modelling Framework GVA Growth Assumptions Economic Scenario Labour Force Required by Sector Labour Force Required by Skills Levels Productivity Assumptions Sector Skills Assumptions Spatial Analysis

  7. Commuting patterns provide the link between where people work and where they live. Labour Force by Residence A Modelling Framework GVA Growth Assumptions Economic Scenario Labour Force Required by Sector Labour Force Required by Skills Levels Productivity Assumptions Sector Skills Assumptions Labour Force by Location Spatial Analysis Commuting Patterns

  8. Migration provides a balancing mechanism between the labour force that is required and that which can be provided from the regional population. Migration A Modelling Framework GVA Growth Assumptions Economic Scenario Labour Force Required by Sector Labour Force Required by Skills Levels Productivity Assumptions Sector Skills Assumptions Labour Force by Location Population Skills Base Spatial Analysis Labour Force by Residence Commuting Patterns

  9. A Modelling Framework The location of the labour force by residence, allied to migration effects are primary determinants of where the resident population lives. GVA Growth Assumptions Economic Scenario Labour Force Required by Sector Labour Force Required by Skills Levels Productivity Assumptions Sector Skills Assumptions Labour Force by Location Population Skills Base Spatial Analysis Migration Resident Population by Location Labour Force by Residence Commuting Patterns

  10. The size of the resident population determines the amount of housing required by location. Housing Requirements by Location A Modelling Framework GVA Growth Assumptions Economic Scenario Labour Force Required by Sector Labour Force Required by Skills Levels Productivity Assumptions Sector Skills Assumptions Labour Force by Location Population Skills Base Spatial Analysis Migration Resident Population by Location Labour Force by Residence Commuting Patterns

  11. Comments on this framework and modelling generally • It is a modelling framework not a model • Provides a way of conceptualising connections in the real world and promotes shared understanding • Helps “policy wonks” and “technical nerds” communicate • Parts may be implemented as actual models • Framework and models are purposeful • How pictures are drawn and models constructed depends on what we are trying to do • Demography: planning housing vs education delivery • Framework might have new boxes and different connections depending on what we are trying to do • Frameworks like this are our best hope for integrating LEAs to a regional strategy

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