1 / 4

Preliminary Verification

Preliminary Verification. 1-tier vs. 2-tier MME Forecast against Observed. May 17, 2012. SST forecast and Obs for FMA 2012. Correlation (w.r.t. map average) G 0.32 (0.44) T 0.41 (0.42) Uncentered Correlation (w.r.t. clim average): G 0.32 (0.41) T 0.29 (0.33)

leoma
Download Presentation

Preliminary Verification

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Preliminary Verification 1-tier vs. 2-tier MME Forecast against Observed May 17, 2012

  2. SST forecast and Obs for FMA 2012 Correlation (w.r.t. map average) G0.32 (0.44) T0.41 (0.42) Uncentered Correlation (w.r.t. clim average): G0.32 (0.41) T0.29 (0.33) || || 1-tier 2-tier FMA 2012 SST Forecast from Jan FMA 2012 SST Obs anom (deg C)

  3. Verification: G: globe T: tropics RPSS: G -0.152 (-0.083) T -0.191 (-0.116) Rate of Return: G -0.088 (-0.043) T -0.089 (-0.044) Heidke skill: G -0.088 (-0.058) T -0.094 (-0.046) GROC: G 0.546 (0.551) T 0.635 (0.612) FMA 2012 temp tercile categ OBS FMA 2012 temp 1-tiered Forecast from Jan

  4. Verification: G: globe T: tropics RPSS: G 0.021 (0.004) T 0.047 (0.012) Rate of Return: G 0.017 (0.003) T 0.042 (0.015) Heidke skill: G 0.113 (0.046) T 0.191 (0.074) GROC: G 0.567 (0.529) T 0.606 (0.550) FMA 2012 precip tercile categ OBS FMA 2012 precip 1-tiered Forecast from Jan

More Related