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Global Climate Change: Effects on Biodiversity

Global Climate Change: Effects on Biodiversity. Warren G. Abrahamson Biology Department Bucknell University. Threat: Impacts of  CO 2. Atmospheric CO 2. CO 2 has increased ≈ 25 % in 100 yrs. Ice Core CO 2. Warmest 12 years:

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Global Climate Change: Effects on Biodiversity

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  1. Global Climate Change: Effects on Biodiversity Warren G. Abrahamson Biology Department Bucknell University

  2. Threat: Impacts of  CO2 Atmospheric CO2 CO2 has increased ≈25% in 100 yrs. Ice Core CO2

  3. Warmest 12 years: 1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,2006, 2001,1997,1995,1999,1990,2000 50 0.13  0.03 100 0.07  0.02 Global Mean Temperatures: Rising Faster with Time United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 Period Rate Years C/decade

  4. Projected Patterns of Precipitation Change United Nations IPCC April 2007 http://www.ipcc.ch/ Winter Summer Bluish = more precipitation to high latitudes Reddish = less precipitation to most low latitudes

  5. Global Climate Change: Effects on Biodiversity Organisms and/or biological communities are experiencing: • Phenology changes • Population declines • More frequent & severe disturbances • Species shifts • Increases of invasive species • Impacts to agriculture/forestry

  6. Global Climate Change: Effects on Biodiversity Organisms and/or biological communities are experiencing: • Phenology changes (Earlier spring activity) Birds nesting & laying eggs earlier Trees leafing out earlier Earlier flowering of plants Causing a mismatch between Peak of food availability & food needs for nestlings Both et al. 2006 (Ahola et al. 2008; Tombre et al. 2008; Husek and Adamik 2008; Both et al. 2006) (Bertin 2008; Thompson and Clark 2008; Menzel et al. 2006)

  7. Global Climate Change: Effects on Biodiversity Organisms and/or biological communities are experiencing: • Phenology changes • Population declines Adelie penguin populations declined by 1/3 over past 25 years (Antarctic sea ice habitat declining) Coral reefs declining(rising seawater temperatures) Cool-climate communities (e.g., spruce-fir aspen-birch) predicted to decline >90% in USA Arthur Morris Phillip Dustan Alexander Bogolyubov (Emmerson and Southwell 2008; Hinke et al. 2007) (Baker et al. 2008; Wilson et al. 2008) Decline of Carysfort Reef (Florida) (Botkin et al. 2007; Gullison et al. 2007)

  8. Global Climate Change: Effects on Biodiversity Enyalioidespalpebralis Organisms and/or biological communities are experiencing: • Phenology changes • Population declines Tropical ecothermsnarrower tolerance& live closer to physiological optimathan high-latitude species Consequently, more vulnerable to climate thermal change (Tewksberry et al. 2008. Putting the heat on tropical animals. Science 320: 1297-1297)

  9. Global Climate Change: Effects on Biodiversity Organisms and/or biological communities are experiencing: • Phenology changes • Population declines • More frequent & severe disturbances Sea level rise & enhanced storms Alter 25-80% of USA coastal wetlands Catastrophic impacts on low-lying countries (e.g., Bangladesh) Increased incidence of fire in xeric communities Lake MichiganLudington Lighthouse Nov 2008

  10. Global Climate Change: Effects on Biodiversity Organisms and/or biological communities are experiencing: • Phenology changes • Population declines • More frequent & severe disturbances • Species shifts

  11. Shifts in Species Distributions due to Climate Change Comma Butterfly Netherlands Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency2003

  12. Eurosta solidaginis “gigantea” race gall Shift in Species Range Shifts in Species Distributions due to Climate Change Some Need It Cold Southern-most population moved 130 miles north Gall-inducing fly Eurosta solidaginis 2003 ● ● 1999 X Southern-most population of “gigantea” host race of Eurosta solidaginis W.G. Abrahamson, unpublished data

  13. Shifts in Species Distributions due to Climate Change Pygmy Skunk Distribution Shifts with Climate Change A Reserve to Protect Pygmy Skunk in 2000 Inadequate by 2050 Hannah et al. 2007

  14. Shifts in Community Distributions due to Climate Change A Reserve to Protect Species in 1910 Glacier National Park Est. 1910 Inadequate before 2100 Climate change will cause shiftsin species distributions & will impact ecological reserves

  15. Shifts in Distributions Temperate-zone climate regions will shift toward the poles: >10% of species unable to survivewarmer climates Extinction if they can’t migrate to new localities Habitat fragmentationwill slow or preventmigration Miller-Rushing and Primack 2004, Malcolm et al. 2006, Sekercioglu et al. 2008 “Island” constrained species have nowhere to go – They face extirpation or extinction

  16. Shifts in Distributions Temperate-zone climate regions will shift toward the poles: Most impacted: Limited-distribution, poor-dispersal species Advantage to: Widely distributed, easily dispersed species Miller-Rushing and Primack 2004, Malcolm et al. 2006, Sekercioglu et al. 2008 Dries Buytaert

  17. Global Climate Change: Effects on Biodiversity Organisms and/or biological communities are experiencing: • Phenology changes • Population declines • More frequent & severe disturbances • Species shifts • Increases of invasive species

  18. Invasive Species Warmer conditions & elevated CO2 levels may favor invasive species & outbreaks of pest species ♀ ovipositing Asian-originHemlock Woolly Adelgid Asian-origin Japanese Honeysuckle European/Asian-origin Gypsy Moth

  19. Global Climate Change: Effects on Biodiversity Organisms and/or biological communities are experiencing: • Phenology changes • Population declines • More frequent & severe disturbances • Species shifts • Increases of invasive species • Impacts to agriculture/forestry

  20. Climate Change Could Devastate Crops Crop Importance Red = More important Orange = Important Yellow = Less important Examples: By 2030: Southern Africa could lose >30% of its main crop, maize Southern Asia could lose >10% of regional staples, including rice, millet & maize Production Impact (%) Production Impact (%) Lobell et al. 2008. Prioritizing climate change adaptation needs for food security in 2030. Science 319: 607-610.

  21. Pennsylvania:Ag/Forestry Possible Impacts Union of Concerned Scientists, Oct 2008

  22. Faced with Huge Challenges: To save biodiversity, need global action

  23. Edward Abbey wrote… “…love of the wilderness is more than a hunger for what is always beyond reach; it is also an expression of loyalty to the earth which bore us and sustains us, the only home we shall ever know, the only paradise we ever need – if only we had the eyes to see.” from Desert Solitaire 1968`

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