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Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Severe Weather

Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Severe Weather. Daniel Meléndez. NWS S&T Committee September 17, 2002. Outline. Team Composition Vision / Benefits Goals / Targets Key Information Gaps Key Solutions Outstanding R & D Needs Summary. Severe Weather Team Composition.

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Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Severe Weather

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  1. Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Severe Weather Daniel Meléndez NWS S&T Committee September 17, 2002

  2. Outline • Team Composition • Vision / Benefits • Goals / Targets • Key Information Gaps • Key Solutions • Outstanding R & D Needs • Summary

  3. Severe WeatherTeam Composition • Daniel Meléndez (NWS/OST) • Richard Okulski (NWS/OS) • John Weaver (NESDIS) • Don Burgess (OAR/NSSL) • Robert Saffle (OST) • Steve Weiss (SPC) • Ron Przybylinski (WFO/STL) • Dan Smith (SRH) • Liz Quoetone (WDTB) • John Ferree (WDTB) • David Sharp (WFO/MLB) • Terry Schuur (OAR/NSSL) • Brian Motta (NWS/OCWWS) • Bard Zajac (U. No. Co.)

  4. Severe WeatherVision / Benefits • 2025 Vision • Tornado Warning Lead Times Beyond Tornadic Lifetimes ( 30 min) at 1-km resolution • Save Lives • Increased Lead Times Enables Necessary Actions to Minimize Impact of Severe Local Storms • Millions in Savings to Transportation & Similar Industries

  5. On Track Low Risk High Risk Severe WeatherGoals/Targets to FY 12

  6. Low Risk High Risk On Track Severe WeatherGoals/Targets to FY 12

  7. Severe WeatherKey Information Gaps • Higher Resolution and DensityStorm-Scale Data • Improved Specification and Forecasting of Pre-Storm Environment • Improved Specification and Forecasting of Boundaries • Improved Understanding and Specification of Severe Weather Signatures • Improved Verification

  8. Severe WeatherKey S&T Solutions

  9. Severe WeatherKey S&T Solutions

  10. 10 02 05 06 07 08 04 09 11 12 03 Severe Weather Key S&T SolutionsCurrent Programmatic Phase MDCRS Water Vapor/EDR SCAN+ *Dual Pol *ORPG/Finer and FasterVCPs/ORDA/TDWR+ Deployment Observations OTE Satellite Remote Sensing WRF Ensembles DTE DA/Models R&D Enabling Process *Severe Weather R&D *Training PDT WES Training

  11. Severe WeatherOutstanding R&D Needs • Improved Understanding of Tornado Formation • Improved Understanding of Severe Weather Meteorology • Objective Verification • Improved Cloud-Scale Models • Improved Situational Awareness Tools and Training • Improved Understanding of Total Lightning Data in Severe Weather Forecasting • Improved Understanding of Radar Polarimetry in Severe Weather Forecasting • Improved Understanding of Predictability Limits • Improved Understanding of Socioeconomic Impact

  12. Severe WeatherSummary Vision • Tornado Warning Lead Times Beyond Tornadic Lifetimes • ( 30 min) at 1-km resolution • R&D Needs • Tornadogenesis • R&D on severe weather • Objective verification • Cloud-scale models • Situational awareness tools and training • R&D on total lightning data and radar polarimetry data • Predictability Limits • Improved Understanding on Socioeconomic Impact • Implement WRF • Deploy Advanced Ensemble Techniques • Dual Polarization • New Satellite Remote Sensing • Enhanced Training Increasing Performance • WSR88D Radar Upgrades • TDWR integration • WES/Training • MDCRS R&D 2002 2007 2012 2020

  13. Severe WeatherSummary • Severe weather warning and detection FY07 improvements will be driven by observational (radar) increases in resolution and coverage • Need continued training and severe weather research as part of threshold progress • Improved verification is critical to overall progress • FAR is a consequence of verification accuracy so emphasis should be on detection • Synoptic forecasting models on track

  14. Severe Weather • BACKGROUND SLIDES

  15. Severe WeatherWhy FAR May Be at High Risk? • WSR-88D Lesson: New technologies temporarily raise POD at the expense of FAR • Long-term FAR reduction trails POD increase

  16. U95 Trend Actual L95 Descriptive Statistics: Constant = -131.1915 Coefficient = 0.0708 Rsqr = 0.053 T-value for slope = 0.53 2-tailed t-test 95% CI w/ 5 degrees of freedom = 2.57

  17. U95 Trend Actual L95 Descriptive Statistics: Constant = 10.0956 Coefficient = -0.0047 Rsqr = 0.127 T-value for slope = -0.85 2-tailed t-test 95% CI w/ 5 degrees of freedom = 2.57

  18. U95 Trend Actual L95 Descriptive Statistics: Constant = -31.8362 Coefficient = .0163 Rsqr = 0.623 T-value for slope = 2.87 2-tailed t-test 95% CI w/ 5 degrees of freedom = 2.57

  19. Vision 2025 – Storm Scale Modeling

  20. Severe WeatherPrimary Customers/Partners

  21. Severe WeatherKey Products/Services

  22. Severe WeatherS & T Roadmap • (Insert Spreadsheet)

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